分类： <span>Market Update（EN）</span>

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Carriers continue to price in order to win volume in a market seeing soft demand and no material peak season—rates are expected to continue to fall. Reductions have slowed to the U.S. West Coast (USWC) while further reductions continue to be seen to the U.S. East Coast (USEC).
• [Ocean – India] Floating Rates have stabilized through June. Slight increases, through carrier General Rate Increases (GRI), are expected for July. Fixed Rates signed at higher levels than FAK, but incoming GRIs may equalize the two.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity that opened up—due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations—put pressure on rates as supply exceeded demand. Expect this situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] Contract compliance is at an all-time high, as evidenced by the historically low tender rejection rate of below 3%—an indicator of carriers’ willingness to accept most contract freight.
• [Trucking – U.S. Import/Export] U.S. wet ports remain largely fluid, with truck turn times under one hour at most ports. Rail ports are also largely fluid though some chassis shortages are being seen due to multiple train arrivals and above average street dwells.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

For ILWU, West Coast Port Deal To Be Union-Ratified, Here’s What Has To Happen Next Representatives of the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU) and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), who represent port operators on the U.S. west coast, announced on Wednesday that a tentative agreement had been reached. The ILWU representative added that while this is excellent news and thanked interim labor secretary Julie Su for stepping in to help steer the negotiations across the line—the final process includes the full membership voting on the agreement—a process which may take several months. Retailers Are Trying To Fix Their Supply-Chain Forecasts In an ongoing effort to increase agility, flexibility, and resiliency in their supply chains—sparked by the volatility experienced during the pandemic—many retailers are increasing their technology spend. By improving the data and analytics behind their forecasts, these organizations are learning more about their customers overall, which is in turn further aiding in developing more accurate forecasts and helping them avoid stockouts and overstocks that plagued so many over the last few years.

 

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue to decline as demand remains low and capacity open. Expect this trend to continue beyond Q2’23. This situation means that equipment is widely available in all major European ports—congestion has decreased in both US and Europe, speeding the turnaround of containers and leading to wider equipment availability.
• [Ocean – LANB/LASB] Intra-Americas Trade Lane volumes have softened due to several factors, including ongoing inventory overstock, slack seasonality, and high inflation rates in key countries like Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. A rebound is expected but likely not to the level seen over the past few years.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Booking intake remains flat but the overall trend is picking up, albeit slowly. High inflation, inventories, and energy costs combined with geopolitical instability are still impacting demand on the European side.
• [Air – Asia] An increase in passenger capacity for the summer schedule is keeping overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable, along with average rates. The spot market is increasing as carriers and forwarders are less desperate to fill their empty space.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) remains at a record low—consistent with the lows seen during the early COVID-19 lockdowns—indicating sufficient capacity to meet demand and that carriers are prioritizing contract freight.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

US Unveils New Shipping Bills To Clean Up Pollution and Emissions   Senators recently introduced two new bills before the U.S. Congress. The first, the International Maritime Pollution Accountability Act, aims to clean the air around port communities and would impose a pollution fee on unloading vessels. The Clean Shipping Act of 2023 would set baselines for acceptable levels for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, then requiring them to be cut by 45% by 2030. Unsnarled Supply Chains Appear To Help Ease Goods Inflation Using updated data from the White House Council of Economic Advisors, this brief article dives into the supply chain forces involved in the current inflation situation. Drawing on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSPCI), among other sources, their conclusion is that American consumers can likely look forward to having some economic breathing room in the coming months. For another dive into the GSPCI, see Flexport Research’s recent commentary piece, Are We There Yet? Tracking the Recovery in Global Supply Chains.

Source from FLEXPORT.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Capacity is at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings. Space remains wide open and rates have dropped to pre-pandemic levels. Expect possible loading limitations on some East and Gulf Coast services surrounding Panama draft and weight restrictions due to drought conditions.
• [Ocean – India] Capacity is available across all carriers and services, with 40ft equipment easier to come by than 20ft. Wet ports are best positioned with a steady supply of imports making equipment available for exports.
• [Air – Asia] The market is stabilizing and rates remain higher than Q1, while demand has recovered through May and we are back to 2022 levels. Freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on TPEB as carriers lose money due to low sell rates and high fuel costs. This situation will continue if the rate and fuel situations do not improve.
• [Air – Europe] The TAWB market continues to soften in both directions while demand continues to decline. A large amount of capacity is being added for the summer schedule by U.S. and Europe-based airlines and rates, which bottomed out mid-May, now show some sign of stabilization.
• [Trucking – U.S. Import/Export] Centerm (Vancouver) has implemented a $68 gate fee for day time pulls and $18 for night transactions as of 6/1. Fires in Alberta have delayed rail moves, causing yard utilization to exceed 95% in Vancouver. U.S. wet ports are largely fluid, with truck turn times under one hour at most ports.

 

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

This Week In News

As Back-to-School, Holiday Orders Begin, This Is What May Be the New ‘Normal’ in Peak Retail Trade Season Back-to-school orders are trending up and many retailers have sold through their inventory gluts. What does this mean for peak season ‘23? Depends who you ask—some logistics managers foresee a peak season on par with 2018-2019 while others are saying not to expect a “normal” peak season until Q3 ‘24. Cargo Shifts Back to US West Coast Ports, but Some Has Gone for Good Stabilizing freight conditions, along with recent positive signs from the talks between ports and labor union leadership have led some shippers who shifted their cargo to U.S. East Coast ports to begin, cautiously, returning some of that volume to the West Coast. Throughput at the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach was still down 5% year over year (45% of U.S. imports in Q1 2019 compared to 40% in Q1 of this year), per Descartes Datamyne.

 

Source from Flexport.com

 

Trends to Watch

• [Regional Update – Europe] In Italy, space availability is good and ocean freight rate levels are stable. For air freight, capacity is increasing slightly with the summer season approaching and more flights being scheduled.
• [Regional Update – Europe] In France, the strikes affecting operations at the port of Le Havre and Fos-sur-Mer have eased up and operations are running as usual.
• [Regional Update – LATAM] For standard air services, booking to estimated time of departure (ETD) in Colombia, Peru, and Chile is 3-4 days; Argentina is 7-10 days. For Brazil the lead time from booking to uplift is 2 to 4 days for standard service on average, but will vary depending on the airline and route.
• [Regional Update – LATAM] U.S. – Mexico cross-border: Please book shipments 5-7 days prior to cargo read date (CRD), occasional security problems at the Nuevo Laredo border could cause temporary shutdowns of the border crossing bridge and inclement weather is causing increases in transit times.
• [Regional Update – Mainland China] Post-pandemic reopening is ongoing and is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Ocean capacity is widely available and air operations are running smoothly.

 

North America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Nearshoring Trend Escalates for US Companies Mexico has surpassed China as the U.S.’s top trading partner, with 16.1% of total trade. The trend of nearshoring, or moving overseas operations like production to a nearby country, is ramping up according to the UberFreight study cited here. Includes a nod to Flexport’s recent piece on the rise of Laredo as the top port of entry for goods entering the U.S., as well as several quotes from our own Chief Economist, Phil Levy. World’s Largest Container Ship Arrives at Port of Antwerp-Bruges The MSC Loreto set sail from Ningbo on April 19 and will make port at Felixstowe on May 28. This week it docked at the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, the largest ship to call at the port. Along with its twin the MSC Irina, the Loreto has a carrying capacity of 24,346 TEUs and measures 400 meters long by 61 meters broad.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TAWB] Overall space is available on both coasts as capacity has steadily increased and demand has remained below what was seen in 2021-2022. As more vessels and carriers have entered the market there is plenty of supply with shipping lines looking for extra cargo to fill the additional capacity. Expect the situation to last beyond Q2 2023.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Volume for Intra-Americas trade lanes (LASB/LANB) has softened across the board due to multiple factors: inventory overstock, slack seasonality, high inflation rates in key countries like Brazil, Chile, Colombia, etc. and softer demand in general.
• [Ocean – FEWB] Blank sailings and sliding vessels reduce weekly capacity from Asia in order to balance low demand. Spot rates on the trade have decreased, leaving a narrow margin between them and FAK rates.
• [Air – Asia] Freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on Transpacific as they lose money at low sell rates and high fuel costs. This will continue if the rate and fuel costs do not improve. Demand is expected to pick back up driven by product launches and improved economy in Q3.
• [Regional update – India] Air space is available and schedules are reliable for India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh/Pakistan, ocean space is available and schedules are reliable, trucking is functioning normally, and equipment is widely available.

N. America Vessel Dwell Times

This Week In News

Trucking Could — Maybe — Become Less Volatile Shippers, tired of the ongoing volatility in the trucking industry over the last few years, are starting to push back. They’re getting aggressive, but not by going with the lowest bidder as many might expect. Rather, they’re going for service-level metrics like “on-time, in-full.” Drawing on their own Sonar data, Freightwaves looks at how this, combined with a move to a more constant, year-round request for proposal (RFP) season is shifting the trucking tide in shipper’s favor. Flexport Makes the CNBC Disruptor 50 List for the Third Year in a Row For the past 11 years, CNBC has named 50 startups to its Disruptor 50 list. These companies are selected for their ambition and cutting-edge technology, sure, but they’re also picked because they’re chasing the biggest opportunities in their respective industries. For the third year in a row, Flexport is proud to be among them at number 10 after topping the list in 2022.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Take advantage of currently soft conditions on the floating market (low rates, open space, across the board). Consider leveraging premium services as they have returned to excellent transit time performance.
• [Ocean – FEWB] On the Far East Westbound lane, demand remains flat pre-Labour Holiday—booking intake slightly increased and further dropped again. High inflation, high inventories, energy costs, and geopolitical instability are still impacting the demand at the European end. Spot rates are also decreasing.
• [Air – Transatlantic] The market continues to soften in both directions with demand continuing to decline. A large amount of capacity will be added for the summer schedule by US and Europe airlines, and volumes and rates are both expected to rebound in Q3 with demand picking back up, driven by product launches and improving economic conditions.
• [Air] Passenger capacity continues to recover with significant increase expected in the summer from Europe, North America and Asia. The added belly capacity will likely impact rates in Q3.
• [Trucking – U.S. Domestic] The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract tender volumes across all modes, was down 25% year-over-year (3.3% month-over-month), or 9.6% when measuring accepted volumes after the significant decline in tender rejection rates.

 

Sourse from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean – TPEB] Effective capacity still is at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings and try to reign in further rate drops. Space remains wide open and rates have dropped to pre-pandemic levels.
• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity remains open, expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This is putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand, we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Air – Asia] The market is stabilizing and rates will remain higher than Q1 while demand has recovered and remains relatively stable. Some freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on Transpacific. An increase in passenger capacity as summer approaches should keep the overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable and maintain a healthy supply demand balance.
• [Trucking – N. America] The port of Houston discontinued Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours as of Apr 29, 2023. The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—Gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide.​​​​

Expert Voices

Container throughput at Laredo on the U.S. – Mexico border reached a new monthly high in March, jumping by more than 30,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) from February to reach nearly 235,000. To date, the evidence for near-shoring has been murky. Here we look at how it is perhaps coming into clearer view. After Long Beach and Newark, the third busiest port in the United States in March is not a ‘port,’ or at least not the kind with waves lapping against docks. It is landlocked, more than one hundred miles from the sea and the majority of ‘shipments’ pass through on the back of semis and atop long, winding trains without being offloaded. It is Laredo, Texas, or Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, depending on which side of the border you sit on. And it is one of the major indicators suggesting a potential shift in U.S. trade flows. The chart below compares monthly loaded TEUs through Laredo against the 2019 pre-pandemic average of around 165,000 per month (the straight dotted blue line). Recall that in 2019, U.S. real imports were trending downwards and that after the initial drop caused by the onset of the pandemic, we then started seeing considerable growth. Turning back to Laredo, with the exception of a likely-seasonal drop in the May of 2022, volumes have remained well-above that average for the past twelve months, culminating in the March spike, which represented a 14.8% month-on-month increase and 17.5% increase year-on-year. By contrast, total seaborne TEUs into the U.S. were only up 6.6% month-on-month and still 24.9% lower than March 2022. What makes that spike – and the volumes in the months preceding it – all the more intriguing is that it came at a time when there was an apparent disconnect between tumultuous U.S. seaborne imports, resilient consumer spending and wholesale and retail inventory levels. The rise in activity at Laredo may provide one piece of the puzzle. It could turn out to be just a temporary surge, however, and volumes will eventually settle back at historical levels. Indeed, if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that seeming trends can be anything but.

This Week In News

Here’s How Supply Chains Are Being Reshaped for a New Era of Global Trade The global supply chain may be out from under the bulk of disruptions brought on by the COVID pandemic, but that doesn’t mean everything can, or should, return to ‘normal.’ The companies that take this time to put into action the lessons they learned over the last three years are the ones setting themselves up for long-term success. Supply chain resiliency, diversification (of suppliers, partners, routes, etc.), and sustainability are the key focus areas shippers should be looking to sort out through the back half of 2023. Greywing’s New SeaGPT Solves Email Overwhelm for Maritime Crew Managers Greywing, a Singapore-based maritime intelligence platform (backed by investors like Y Combinator and Flexport), has announced the release of seaGPT—an AI chatbot for maritime crew masters. Running in the background, seaGPT takes advantage of Greywing’s proprietary database and integration with more than 18,000 ports around the world to expedite the on- and off-boarding of crew members.

 

Scoure from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch [Ocean-TAWB] As more vessels and carriers have entered the market, there is plenty of supply with shipping lines looking for extra cargo to fill the additional capacity. This situation is expected to last beyond Q2 2023. [Ocean-LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This has put pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand—we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2. [Air-Asia > N. America/EU] We expect freighter capacity to drop as older aircrafts are retired or scrapped as they cannot make money under current economic conditions. Overall capacity should be slightly net positive in Q2 but will reduce in Q3 with the end of the summer travel period. [Air-LATAM] Brazil: Required lead time is similar month over month—the lead time from requesting the booking to the airline until uplift is 2 to 4 days for Standard service on average, but will vary depending on the airline and route. Shorter lead time available on Express service. [Air/Ocean-India] Space is available and schedules are reliable for both modes out of India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh. Air cargo space is tight into the U.S. and EU for Pakistan with occasional flight delays. Equipment has good availability. ​​​​

This Week In News

US Import Gain Means Flexport Sees No Recession for Some Months The latest forecasts released by Flexport Research show a steady increase in consumption, among other signs that recession isn’t as imminent as previously thought. “A recession may well be on the way, but from the latest data, we’re not seeing it arriving in the next few months,” said Phil Levy, Flexport chief economist. At the same time, the U.S. domestic trucking industry showed the largest decline in tonnage hauled since the beginning of the pandemic, as the truck tonnage index fell 5.4% in March over February. [Podcast] What Are Responsible Supply Chains and What Role Does Trust, Transparency and Technology Play in Achieving Them? In this latest episode of Zero100’s “Radical Reinvention” podcast, Zero100 Co-Founder Kevin O’Marah is joined by: Dave Clark, CEO of Flexport, Anne-Laure Descours, Chief Sourcing Officer at PUMA, and Reginaldo Ecclissato, Chief Business Operations and Supply Chain Officer at Unilever. The discussion is a deep dive into responsible supply chains and the role that trust, transparency and technology play in achieving them—as Dave says, “I don’t think you can be in the supply chain anymore without waking up and thinking about your impact on people and the planet.” ​​​​​​

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

• [Ocean-All Lanes] Environmental regulation compliance resulting from IMO 2023 has led to vessels not returning to pre-Covid speeds, effectively removing ~8% capacity from the market.
• [Ocean-TAWB] Recommend booking two or more weeks prior to Cargo Ready Date (CRD) to secure space and minimize CRD changes as much as possible. Alternatively, leverage premium products to guarantee equipment and loading for your most time sensitive cargo.
• [Air-Correction] We previously reported that runway work was being conducted at Beijing Airport, which was incorrect. The maintenance work is happening at Shanghai Pudong Int’l Airport. Estimated impact (per Shanghai Airport): ~10% capacity on PVG-US, and ~25-30% capacity on PVG – EU, and work will be ongoing through June.
• [Air-Asia > N. America] Carriers are NOT sharing significantly reduced fixed rates, in order to not engage their capacity at the lowest of the market. Expect rates to stay around the same level as at the end of March.
• [Air-Transatlantic] Passenger traffic is beginning to pick up and flight frequencies will continue to increase on Trans-Atlantic routes. The summer schedule of major European and US airlines is already significantly higher from mid-April onwards.

This Week In News

Why Air Cargo Must Continue To Experiment, Embrace New Tools, Tech According to the World Bank’s recently released report, “Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies,” global GDP growth will slow significantly in the coming years. For the freight forwarding and global shipping industry, the time may be perfect to invest in technology upgrades and improved data practices. Neel Jones Shah, Flexport’s EVP of Air Strategy & Carrier Development, had this to say: “My advice for everyone working in supply chain right now is to take advantage of this time to plan for the future.” How the Pandemic’s E-Commerce Boom Drove New Packaging Trends Shifts in consumer shopping habits, environmental concerns, brand reputation, and direct-to-consumer models stemming from the early days of the COVID pandemic have all contributed to changes in how goods are shipped to buyers. Specifically, Ships-In-Own-Container (SIOC), in which  an item arrives in the original packaging without any additional box or packaging needed, has seen a major uptick in recent years.

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean] On Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB), effective capacity remains at an oversupply with carriers continuing to announce more blank sailings in an attempt to reign in further rate drops. Meanwhile, the trends of shifting imports to the U.S. East Coast (USEC), as well as Canada & the Gulf, from the U.S. West Coast (USWC) continues to be seen in YoY volume data.
• [Ocean] Meanwhile, on Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB), rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity continues to increase. Expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Further, equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Air] A portion of Beijing Airport, the 3rd busiest in the country, is shut down for maintenance through the month of April. This is expected to remove approximately ⅓ of the facility’s air cargo volume, or ~2.6% of China’s overall air cargo volume.
• [Air] Transatlantic routes are continuing to see increasing numbers of passenger flights being scheduled, thereby increasing belly capacity from Europe to N. America. This has brought capacity on these routes back to pre-COVID levels; however rates remain high due to fuel prices.
• [Trucking] The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide and highway diesel rates remain stable.

Freight Rates

The Week In News

A key inflation gauge tracked by the Fed slowed in February

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, which is less than expected. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6%, the lowest since late 2021. This is encouraging news for policymakers, as it indicates that inflation may be stabilizing after a period of rapid growth. According to Flexport’s Chief Economist Phil Levy, “You look at this report and think, we’ve got to keep applying the brakes.”

European Shippers Sign Up for Waterborne Biofuel Initiative

Seventeen European shippers, led by Dutch multimodal operator Samskip, have signed on to the “Switch to Zero” campaign by the Port of Rotterdam Authority and GoodShipping. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) mandates that 32% of all energy usage in the EU, including at least 14% of all energy in road and rail transport fuels, must come from renewable sources such as biofuels. Flexport also partners with GoodShipping to enable our customers to work toward carbon neutrality via the Impact Dashboard, part of the Flexport platform.

Source from Flexport.com