Global Logistics Update: February 6 , 2025

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs/De Minimis Exemption Update]

  • Effective Tuesday, February 4, an additional 10% tariff has been imposed on goods from China and Hong Kong under President Trump’s executive order, which also eliminates the de minimis rule for Chinese-origin goods.
  • The executive order also suspends duty drawback on these additional duties for goods originating from China (Mexico and Canada deferred). However, businesses may still recover the standard duties, including Section 201 or Section 301 duties.
  • In response, China swiftly announced a series of retaliatory measures against the U.S.
  • Meanwhile, tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been deferred for 30 days after President Trump reached a last-minute agreement with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
  • For more details on the latest tariff updates, read our blog.

[Suez Canal Update]

  • As of February 4, 2025, the Suez Canal is experiencing a return to stability following previous disruptions caused by attacks in the Red Sea.
  • The Houthis have pledged to honor the Gaza ceasefire reached last month and have suspended attacks on commercial shipping in the region. Despite this, major shipping lines remain cautious, prioritizing security before resuming regular operations.
  • The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) is actively working to restore traffic through the canal, given the improving security situation.
  • On Monday, the SCA issued new navigational maps for a planned 10-kilometer extension of the canal. This project aims to increase capacity, allowing an additional six to eight vessels to transit daily.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Demand remains weak post-Lunar New Year in February, with floating rates expected to decline further. By Weeks 9 and 10, we can see a slow recovery.
  • Capacity: Blank sailings announced before the holiday are now impacting market capacity. However, with deferred shipments built ahead of LNY, most carriers report good vessel utilization in February despite the slowdown in demand. Given the anticipated rate decrease, carriers are expected to accept over-bookings in preparation for March.
  • Equipment: No shortages have been reported.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Demand remains weak post Lunar New Year in February, with floating rates expected to decline further.
  • Capacity: Blank sailings announced before the holiday are now impacting market capacity. However, with deferred shipments built ahead of LNY, most carriers report good vessel utilization in February despite the slowdown in demand. Given the anticipated rate decrease, carriers are expected to accept over-bookings in preparation for March.
  • Equipment: Occasional equipment shortages at origin persist due to blank sailings and vessel delays. Timely Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR) printing to ensure that documents are generated and processed promptly to avoid delays in equipment pickup and early equipment pickup can help mitigate the risk of missed cargo-loading.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Service updates: Recent changes in ocean carrier alliances and vessel deployments, which temporarily reduced available capacity and caused service disruptions in recent weeks, have now been fully implemented. These strategic realignments within major carrier alliances are expected to stabilize schedules and enhance service reliability going forward.
  • Blank sailings have decreased in both North and South Europe.
  • Rates: Some carriers have implemented a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) starting March 1 for shipments from North Europe to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
  • Demand remains stable in February, with carrier capacity at healthy levels.

[Air – Global] (Mon 20 Jan – Sun 26 Jan 2025) (Week 4) (Source: worldacd.com):

  • Global air cargo rates and volumes: Average global air cargo rates increased by +4% week-on-week (WoW) in Week 4 (Jan. 20-26) to $2.52/kg, marking an +11% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Tonnages from the Asia-Pacific rose +2% WoW, now +6% YoY, though still -8% below the Week 49 peak.
  • Asia-Pacific to Europe and USA trends: Asia-Pacific to Europe tonnages surged +10% WoW, now +5% YoY, with China to Europe up +11% WoW and +12% YoY. Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to Europe ($4.32/kg) and China to Europe ($4.29/kg) were stable, but +30% YoY. Asia-Pacific to USA rates rose to $5.30/kg, up +28% YoY, while China to USA rates ($4.49/kg) were up +5% YoY.
  • Worldwide tonnages stabilizing: Global tonnages remained broadly stable (+1% WoW) in Week 4 after rebounding +28% in Week 2 and +11% in Week 3. Current levels are -7% below December averages, but are similar to levels last October and this time last year, indicating slower YoY growth in 2025 compared to +11% YoY growth in 2024.
  • Central and South America (CSA) growth: Outbound tonnages from CSA soared +17% WoW in Week 4, with a +62% increase in the first four weeks of 2025, mainly driven by flower shipments ahead of Valentine’s Day. Flower shipments more than doubled (+114%), with 92% destined for North America.
  • Colombia and Ecuador leading flower exports: 98% of CSA flower exports to North America originated from Colombia (61%) and Ecuador (37%). Flowers accounted for 77% of Colombia’s and 63% of Ecuador’s total air exports in early 2025, reinforcing their reliance on the North American market.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Upcoming Webinars

The Ripple Effect of U.S. Tariffs: What Global Companies Need to Know

Thursday, February 6 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET/ 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

Scenario Planning: 3 Key Developments Shaping The Freight Market

Monday, February 10 @ 7:00 am PT / 10:00 am ET/ 16:00 CET / 15:00 GMT

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: A Beginner’s Guide to a Successful RFP

Tuesday, February 11 @ 11:00 am PT / 2:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, February 13 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: An Advanced Guide to Upscaling Your RFP

Wednesday, February 19 @ 10:00 am PT / 1:00 pm ET

This Week in News

Flexport CEO breaks down the complex and uncertain global trade landscape

As global markets face uncertainty amid President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen discussed how businesses are navigating the rapidly shifting trade landscape in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. According to Petersen, many companies have been rushing to import goods in anticipation of escalating duties, particularly on Chinese imports.

USPS Resumes Accepting Packages From China After Unexpected Suspension

The USPS abruptly halted package acceptance from China and Hong Kong on Tuesday following China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The ban was quickly reversed on Wednesday, with USPS and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) working to enforce new tariffs with minimal disruption.

Flexport CEO outlines real impact of tariffs on shipping, consumer prices

On Tuesday, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen sat down with Blake Burman at NewsNation to discuss the latest on U.S.-China trade—specifically, the new 10% tariff and the suspension of the de minimis exemption, both of which took effect yesterday. “I don’t think this is the end of it,” Ryan said. “The treasury secretary has until April 1 to put in a formal recommendation for the president on Chinese trade, so I’d expect barriers to trade to ratchet up.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is on the rise across the board.

Week to February 3, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to North Europe has risen considerably in the past month: despite a small decrease in the last few weeks, it has been on the rise for two consecutive weeks, increasing from 78 to 79 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast have also been on the rise, increasing from 37 to 37.5 days and 64.5 to 65.5 days, respectively.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: January 30, 2025

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Watch]

  • President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that he intends to impose universal tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5%, shortly after pledging tariffs on semiconductors, steel, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, and copper.
  • Additionally, over the weekend, President Trump threatened Colombia with emergency tariffs. That standoff was quickly resolved after the Colombian government agreed to the Trump administration’s terms.
  • The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation met this week to discuss the Panama Canal’s impact on U.S. trade and security. At last week’s inauguration, President Trump reiterated his plan to “take the Panama Canal back.”
  • For more details on the latest tariff updates, read our blog.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Demand: Demand reductions due to the Lunar New Year holiday have put downward pressure on rates. The SCFI has declined for its third consecutive week.
  • Rates: No rate adjustments are expected in the next 1-2 weeks due to holidays in China. Further short-term rate adjustments are anticipated in early February, following a pattern similar to Peak Season Surcharge (PSS).
  • Vessel utilization: To prevent vessel underutilization, carriers have established roll pools at major origin loading ports, leading to expected rollovers in the coming two weeks. No equipment shortages have been reported at origin.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Carrier announcements: To prevent under-utilized vessels, carriers have announced void sailings before and after the Chinese New Year holidays. This has resulted in the buildup of roll pools at major origin loading ports. Rollover cargo is expected in the next two weeks.
  • Service updates: New alliance services will fully launch in February, with more updates to follow regarding service reliability.
  • Equipment availability: Occasional equipment shortages are occurring at origins due to blank sailings and vessel delays.
  • Client advisory To minimize the risk of missed cargo loading, we recommend timely Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR) printing and earlier equipment pickups.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Service updates: New alliance services are set to begin in February.
  • Blank sailings The frequency of blank sailings has decreased in Northern Europe. However, some blank sailings persist in specific services, primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean.
  • Space availability Carriers are observing slight increases in available space on routes to the U.S. East and West Coasts.
  • Equipment challenges Equipment shortages continue to affect Central Europe, including Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and southern Germany. Carriers recommend utilizing carrier haulage to better monitor and manage demand.

[Air – Global] Mon 13 Jan – Sun 19 Jan 2025 (Week 3):

  • Air cargo demand trends: Global air cargo tonnages increased by +8% week on week (WoW) in Week 3 (Jan 13-19), following a +29% rebound the previous week. Tonnages have now recovered to ~90% of pre-Christmas levels, after a sharp -35% decline in late December and early January. Year-on-year (YoY), global tonnages rose by +3% in Week 3 and +2% for Weeks 2 and 3 combined.
  • Spot rate developments: Average global air cargo rates were stable at $2.43/kg in Week 3, +7% YoY. Global spot rates declined by -3% WoW, but remain +16% higher YoY, with notable increases from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (+54% YoY) and the Asia-Pacific (+20% YoY).
  • Asia-Pacific market performance: Asia-Pacific tonnages rose +5% WoW in Week 3 and are +5% YoY, but still -10% below peak Week 49 levels. The post-peak demand decline in the Asia-Pacific (-33%) is similar to last year (-30%), but recovery to Europe is lagging, with Asia-Pacific to Europe down -20% vs. Week 49 and China to Europe down -15%.
  • Regional rate trends: Asia-Pacific to Europe spot rates dropped by -4% WoW to $4.35/kg, which is -15% lower than Week 49, but still +31% YoY. Asia-Pacific to USA tonnages rose +7% WoW, now -16% below Week 48 peak, while rates fell for the fifth consecutive week to $5.21/kg, though still +29% YoY.
  • Market drivers: The seasonal recovery is underway but faces headwinds due to an early Lunar New Year (Jan. 29), affecting demand patterns.High spot rates persist YoY, reflecting capacity constraints and sustained ecommerce demand, especially on major trade lanes.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Upcoming Webinars

The Ripple Effect of U.S. Tariffs: What Global Companies Need to Know

Thursday, February 6 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET / 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: A Beginner’s Guide to a Successful RFP

Tuesday, February 11 @ 11:00 am PT / 2:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, February 13 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: An Advanced Guide to Upscaling Your RFP

Wednesday, February 19 @ 10:00 am PT / 1:00 pm ET

This Week in News

Asia-Europe ocean rates fall as weak demand sparks battle for market share

The Asia-Europe trade lane is experiencing intense competition between forwarders and carriers, with falling rates and slowing demand leading up to the Lunar New Year holidays. Many Chinese factories shipped orders early, resulting in a quiet market since mid-January. Short-term Asia-North Europe rates have dropped 21% since late December, settling at $3,963/FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates are down over 10%.

Sailing cuts slow pace of decline for India-USEC spot ocean rates

Spot rates on the India-U.S. East Coast trade have slowed their decline, supported by reduced capacity from blank sailings by major carriers. Current rates average $1,350–$1,500 per FEU, with Platts reporting $1,480 as of Jan. 24, down slightly from earlier in the month. Despite plans for February GRIs and surcharges, carriers remain doubtful of their success amid volatile market conditions. Any partial reopening of the Suez Canal could add further pressure to rates due to overcapacity.

Carriers eye Red Sea transits after Houthi rebels pledge restraint

Ocean carriers remain cautious about resuming Red Sea transits despite a Houthi announcement limiting attacks to Israel-affiliated vessels. Carriers like Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk insist they will only return when the region is deemed safe. The Red Sea crisis, which began in late 2023, forced most ships to reroute around Africa, reducing available fleet capacity and driving up freight rates. Analysts warn that a return to the Suez route will flood the market with capacity, leading to supply chain disruptions and sharp declines in spot rates. While carriers may mitigate overcapacity through scrapping and slow steaming, a market downturn appears inevitable.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is on the rise for China to North Europe and China to U.S. West Coast, while China to the U.S. East Coast has plateaued.

Week to January 27, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to North Europe had risen considerably in the past month, showing a small decrease last week by falling to 75.5 days, and is once again on the rise this week—up to 77.5 days. Similarly, China to the U.S. West Coast increased from 35.5 to 37.5 days, while China to the U.S. East Coast has stabilized at 64.5 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: January 23, 2025

Trends to Watch

[Customs Update]

  • On January 17, 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) to restrict certain products from qualifying for the de minimis low-value shipment exemption.
  • According to CBP, the proposed rule would disqualify merchandise subject to specific trade and national security actions, including Section 232, 201, and 301 tariffs, from duty-free treatment. Shipments claiming the exemption would also need to provide the 10-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) classification.
  • This NPRM is the second following the Biden Administration’s September 13 announcement. The public has 60 days to comment on the proposal.
  • For assistance, contact customsbd@flexport.com.

[Tariffs Watch]

  • We’re closely monitoring the tariff updates following President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday. So far, he has announced plans to implement 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, effective February 1.
  • In the meantime, the President also announced a 60-day freeze on new regulations, which could delay recent rulemaking tied to de minimis shipments.
  • Visit our blog to stay up-to-date.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: Shipping lines have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year. FAK rates remain higher than NAC rates, plus peak season surcharges (PSSs). Further PSS adjustments are likely to occur only by mid-February.
  • Blank sailing: Carriers have planned blank sailings for the CNY period and network adjustments. Available capacity is expected to decline starting in Week 5 and remain limited until Week 8, after which a significant increase is anticipated.
  • Space: Due to the Pre-Chinese-New-Year (CNY) rush, space remains constrained, particularly on fixed allocations. However, some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast.
  • Equipment: No significant equipment issues have been reported at origin.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Lunar New Year and alliance restructuring: The Lunar New Year and the restructuring of shipping alliances will take place in the first half of the month, providing carriers with an opportunity to efficiently allocate existing capacity. Both capacity and freight rates are expected to transition smoothly, with the market remaining relatively oversupplied.
  • Capacity and market competition: There has been no significant change in the overall capacity of the new alliances. However, a new wave of market share competition is anticipated to resume after work restarts following the holiday period.
  • Israel-Gaza ceasefire impact: The Israel-Gaza ceasefire agreement, effective January 19, 2025, has not yet led carriers to make decisions about resuming affected routes. In the short term, this is unlikely to cause a drop in freight rates.
  • Regional trade observations Europe: The European economy remains sluggish.Tariff impact: Recent U.S. tariff increases on Chinese goods may stimulate export demand from China to Europe and other regions, potentially boosting trade. FEWB trade: A modest increase in FEWB trade might occur after the Lunar New Year.
  • Market outlook: Taking these factors into account, the market is expected to remain generally stable. Unless there is a sudden surge in cargo volumes, FEWB rates are likely to continue their gradual downward trend.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Capacity: Carrier capacity is starting to open up following the tentative agreement between the ILA and USMX. Space is now available for shipments from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast. However, capacity from South Europe remains tight.
  • Blank sailings persist due to service restructuring and the phase-in of new services.
  • Equipment challenges continue in Central Europe, particularly in Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and South Germany.

[Air – Global] Mon 06 Jan – Sun 12 Jan 2025 (Week 2):

  • Global Air Cargo Price Trends: Global air cargo spot prices remain significantly elevated, up over +20% compared to the previous year, despite a typical seasonal dip in early January 2025. Rates particularly from Asia Pacific and MESA regions contribute to maintaining this higher level.
  • Asia Pacific Route Analysis: Spot rates for Asia Pacific to the USA dropped by -5% week-on-week in early January 2025, and tonnage fell sharply initially but rebounded. However, spot rates remain substantially higher year-on-year, with a noted decrease from China to the USA.
  • Asia Pacific to Europe Shifts: Tonnage and spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe sharply decreased in early 2025 after high numbers in late 2024. There was a slight rebound, with spot rates significantly higher compared to the same period last year, highlighted by rising rates from key countries like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan.
  • MESA Origin Rate Dynamics: MESA-origin air cargo rates have been declining as disruptions to ocean freight supply chains impacted 2024’s elevated levels. Despite recent falls, rates remain significantly higher year-on-year. Political and security concerns, such as threats affecting the Red Sea, continue to influence shipping and air cargo dynamics in the region.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Upcoming Webinars

The Ripple Effect of U.S. Tariffs: What Global Companies Need to Know

Thursday, February 6 @ 8:00am PT / 11:00am ET / 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

European Freight Market Update Live

Tuesday, February 11 @ 15:00 GMT / 16:00 CET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, February 13 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

This Week in News

ECSA-US spot rates weaken rapidly after hitting record high in Q4

Spot rates on the East Coast South America-to-U.S. lane have dropped sharply this month after reaching record highs in Q4 2024. Rates fell from $5,800 per FEU in November to $4,300 per FEU by January 21, due to reduced demand and less full vessels. Despite this, trade remains strong, with Brazilian exports to the U.S. hitting a record $40.3 billion in 2024. Experts expect Brazil-U.S. trade to stay robust in 2025, though global uncertainties remain.

CBP’s proposed rule nixes de minimis treatment for array of imports

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has proposed rule changes to eliminate de minimis treatment for low-cost imports subject to Section 201, 232, and 301 tariffs, meaning goods under $800 would no longer be exempt from import duties. This change aims to protect domestic industries, particularly textiles and manufacturing. Shipments claiming the exemption would also need to provide tariff classification numbers. The proposal could increase costs for U.S. consumers due to higher tariffs. Importers may consolidate shipments to avoid exceeding the $800 threshold. Public comments are open until March 24.

How businesses are preparing for the tariffs Trump has promised to impose

As companies brace for potential tariffs under President Donald Trump, Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, joined PBS to discuss how uncertainty surrounding tariffs has prompted businesses to take action. Petersen emphasized the unpredictability of tariff rates, but suggested that moving goods early is a sensible strategy—as is creative tariff engineering.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI for China to North Europe has finalized its ascension cycle and is now decreasing, while China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast see an uptick.

Week to January 20, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to North Europe has finalized its ascension cycle and is now decreasing, having initially risen sharply from 68 to 80 days and then decreasing to 75.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast are both on the rise, moving from 62.5 to 64.5 days and from 35 to 35.5 days, respectively.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: January 16, 2025

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: Shipping lines have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year. FAK rates remain higher than NAC rates, plus peak season surcharges (PSSs). Further PSS adjustments are likely to occur only by mid-February.
  • Equipment: No significant equipment issues have been reported at origin.
  • Space: Due to the Pre-Chinese-New-Year (CNY) rush, space remains constrained, particularly on fixed allocations. However, some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast. Carriers have planned 11% blank sailings during the CNY period, aligning with network adjustments.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Demand: Pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) demand has slowed, resulting in low carrier vessel utilization rates and a softening market.
  • Capacity: In response, carriers have announced void sailings, primarily targeting WK5, with total capacity reduced to 223k TEU—down from the typical weekly range of 300-320k TEU. Updates to carrier alliance services are planned after the CNY holiday, but no clear strategy for overall capacity changes has been outlined. Meanwhile, carriers are actively promoting space for post-CNY shipments.
  • Carrier availability: The new alliance structure set for 2025 is expected to heighten price competition as carriers contend for market share. Reports from origin ports show declining activity, signaling limited pre-CNY rush shipments and a shift in freight demand toward holiday mode. Based on recent pricing trends and port throughput data, it appears the turning point in cargo volume has already passed.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Labor dispute update: The ILA and USMX have announced a tentative agreement, successfully averting the strike planned for January 16, 2025. As a result, carriers have canceled the ILA disruption charges that were set to apply in the event of a strike.
  • Rates: Rates have largely been extended for the second half of January, as the strike will no longer occur. Carriers are also extending rates into February in anticipation of the new network rollout.
  • Blank sailings: Blank sailings continue as part of service restructuring and the phased implementation of new services.

[Air Freight Update] Mon 30 Dec – Sun 05 Jan 2025 (Week 1) (Source: worldacd.com)

  • Growth moderation signals market shift:
    • December 2024 global tonnage grew +6% YoY, with pricing up +7% YoY, marking a slowdown from earlier months.
    • Q4 2024 growth softened to +8% YoY, reflecting higher comparison bases and easing demand.
  • Regional powerhouses drive rates up:
    • Asia-Pacific and MESA spot rates surged by +23% and +59% YoY, respectively, maintaining regional dominance.
    • Combined air cargo rates began 2025 at $2.65 per kilo, up +13% YoY.
  • Spot vs. contract rates:
    • Global spot rates jumped +22% YoY, while contract rates rose more modestly by +6%.
  • Short-term seasonal impact:
    • Tonnages dipped -8% (2Wo2W) at year-end, driven by capacity cuts (-24% to -48%) and U.S. weather disruptions.
    • Transatlantic Westbound rates soared +50% YoY in December, fueled by shifting freighter capacity.
  • Deceleration from key regions:
    • Asia-Pacific Q4 tonnage growth slowed to +11% YoY, down from +20% YoY in Q1.
    • MESA tonnage growth eased to +7% YoY in Q4, highlighting broader demand cooling.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Upcoming Webinars

North America Freight Market Update Live

(Today) Thursday, January 16 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

This Week in News

2025’s logistics risks include tariffs, labor strife

The year 2025 brings significant challenges for logistics strategies, with tariff uncertainties, labor disruptions, and shifting pricing dynamics across all transport modes. Ocean shippers must prepare for the ratification process of the ILA-USMX contract and potential tariff impacts, prompting some to frontload imports. Rail shippers face capacity constraints and elevated U.S.-Mexico trade demand, while air cargo may see short-term boosts due to regulatory changes and tariff timing.

US LTL truck pricing flat, but still elevated despite low demand

LTL pricing has plateaued since late 2024, with rates still elevated post-Yellow’s 2023 collapse but stable due to soft demand. Shippers now have leverage to resist steep rate hikes in 2025 contract negotiations. Freight volumes remain flat, with no signs of increased demand, though LTL carriers’ strong cost management supports modest rate increases. Fuel surcharge savings have provided some relief for shippers amid the stagnant freight market.

Carriers extend spot rates in bid to avoid further rate erosion in eastbound trans-Pac

Eastbound Trans-Pacific spot rates are being extended into mid-February by several ocean carriers, signaling weakening pricing power amid declining demand and upcoming Lunar New Year factory closures. Planned rate hikes for mid-January have been shelved, and carriers are offering guaranteed rates and promotional discounts to secure volumes. Spot rates to the U.S. West and East Coasts have dropped 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting overcapacity and a slowing market. Customers may delay non-essential bookings in anticipation of further rate declines.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI for China to North Europe continues its ascent, while China to the U.S. East Coast sees a small downtick. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast is back with an uptick.

Week to January 13, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has continued its jump to a new high for China to North Europe, rising from from 77 to 80 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast broke its descent by moving from 34.5 to 35 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast showed a small downtick, falling from 63 to 62.5 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: January 9, 2025

Trends to Watch

[ILA – USMX Labor Dispute Update]

  • In a statement released yesterday evening, the ILA and USMX announced they have reached a tentative agreement on a new six-year master agreement, averting a strike.
  • The agreement comes just one week before the parties’ existing contract extension expires on January 15. Formal negotiations resumed on Tuesday (January 7) of this week, preceded by a secret meeting two days earlier, where ILA and USMX representatives intended to make headway on the central issue of automation, CNBC reported. A document from Sunday’s meeting indicated “a focus on the creation of new human jobs to complement any new port technology.”
  • The ILA and USMX will continue to operate under their current contract until the new contract is ratified. More details will be released after ILA and USMX members approve the final document.
  • Get the full breakdown on our live ILA-USMX blog.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: With Lunar New Year around the corner, ocean carriers have implemented a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective January 1, along with mitigation starting this second week of January.
  • Multiple carriers had announced and planned for ILA-disruption-related charges with varying amounts, start dates, and methods of charging. In light of the tentative agreement, many carriers (including Maersk, ONE, ZIM, and EMC) have begun canceling these surcharges.
  • Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) remain, as there have been no changes yet since the January 1 announcement.
  • Equipment: No significant equipment issues have been reported at origin. But with Lunar New Year around the corner, we will start to see pressure on equipment and truckers—especially in light of potential new tariffs.
  • Space: Amid the pre-Lunar-New-Year rush, space remains constrained. However, there are some strings with open space, especially to the West Coast.
  • Carriers have planned some blank sailings for Lunar New Year.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Lunar New Year factory closures are expected to be concentrated around Weeks 3-4. This will slightly lower market demand; however, the impact will be mitigated by ongoing carrier equipment shortages. As a result, we anticipate that market Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates will remain stable with slight downward adjustments.
  • Market prices remain high, hovering around $4,800-$5,000/FEU. The earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year this year, combined with the short period between Christmas and Lunar New Year, has significantly narrowed the production and transportation window. Consequently, the expected pre-Lunar-New-Year shipment rush has not been observed, and is unlikely to occur before Lunar New Year.
  • Carriers are prioritizing profitable space utilization over simply increasing overall utilization. This approach, coupled with equipment limitations, is the basic motivation behind carriers’ higher rate levels.
  • Before carrier changes and string service upgrades in February, we predict carriers will establish rolling pools to ensure a smooth transition by late January. This is a typical carrier space management measure during Lunar New Year to ensure lifting balances as well.
  • Some carriers may prefer to deploy their own operating vessels during this period. Please remain flexible regarding cargo ready date (CRD) and estimated time of departure (ETD) schedules, or substitute equipment options to minimize space release/delay risk.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Many carriers had announced ILA disruption charges. In light of the tentative agreement, many (including Maersk, ONE, ZIM, and EMC) have begun canceling these surcharges.
  • Additionally, some carriers had planned to implement GRIs on January 15 in light of the now-averted strike. We will share more details as carriers finalize changes.
  • Blank sailings are continuing in January, with almost all alliances announcing blank sailings until Week 5.
  • New services will start in February.

[Air – Global] (Source: Baltic Air Freight Index)

  • Global trends:
    • The Baltic Air Freight Index dropped 3.7% by January 6, reflecting a decline in air freight rates.
    • Despite the dip, the index remains 25.9% higher year-over-year, showcasing resilience in the market.
  • China export routes:
    • Rates from Hong Kong fell by 11.1% week-over-week, but are still up 14% compared to last year.
    • Shanghai experienced a 6.8% week-over-week drop, yet rates remain 37.6% above last year’s levels.
  • Southeast Asia developments:
    • Rates to Europe increased from Bangkok and Vietnam.
    • Vietnam-to-U.S. rates saw a decline.
    • India witnessed slight rate decreases in both export and import directions.
  • European market shifts:
    • Frankfurt’s outbound rates surged 19.8% week-over-week, translating to a 40.8% year-over-year increase.
    • London’s North-America-bound rates rose, but overall rates fell 5.8% week-over-week, remaining 19.4% higher than the previous year.
  • U.S. market activity:
    • Chicago’s outbound rates rebounded post-holiday, climbing 16.3% week-over-week and 30.9% year-over-year.

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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This Week in News

Limited disruption likely as new carrier alliances roll out: Alphaliner

Ocean carriers are set to launch new global networks on February 1, 2025, involving major alliances like Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance, and MSC. While some disruption is expected, key factors will limit its impact, such as the resolution of the ILA-USMX dispute. The Lunar New Year slowdown will also give carriers time to adjust. Though there will be some skipped sailings, most ships are already positioned, and repositioning of vessels from trans-Pacific services will help mitigate capacity shortages.

Trump aims tariffs at Denmark, an exporter of insulin and hearing aids

Donald Trump threatened to impose “very high” tariffs on Denmark if the country resists his offer to buy Greenland, a move that would likely strain trade relations. While Denmark is a relatively small trading partner for the U.S. (ranked 41st), such tariffs could impact industries that rely on Danish imports, especially pharmaceuticals and hearing aids. More than 75% of U.S. insulin imports by value and a significant portion of hearing aids come from Denmark.

Transportation pricing index hits highest level since freight recession began

In December, transportation price growth rates saw a significant surge, reaching their highest point in over two years, according to the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI). Transportation capacity, on the other hand, showed modest growth—far behind the rise in prices. Additionally, both upstream and downstream companies expect inventories to rise significantly over the next year.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI jumped for China to North Europe, and stabilized for China to the U.S. East Coast. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast broke its descent.

Week to January 6, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has jumped to a new high for China to North Europe, rising from from 67 to 77 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast broke its descent by moving from 33 to 34.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast plateaued at 63 days, falling from 63.5 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: December 19, 2024

A Holiday Message

Dear readers, as the holiday season approaches, we want to take a moment to express our appreciation for your support throughout the year. This will be our final newsletter of 2024, but we look forward to resuming with fresh updates starting the week of January 6, 2025!

Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s updates.

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: Shipping lines successfully implemented a General Rate Increase (GRI) as of December 15th, with only minor adjustments and rate corrections observed so far. The first Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) announcements indicate a planned increase for January 2025.
  • Blank sailing: A moderate blank sailing program was in place for December 2024, with 92% available capacity. For January 2025, capacity is expected to be 97%. Additional blank sailings are likely to be announced soon for January and February to account for the Lunar New Year and network changes on the Transpacific trade lane.
  • Equipment: No significant equipment (EQ) issues have been reported at origin.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Demand: Market demand matches operating capacity, supporting stable rates.
  • Supply: Market volume is stronger compared to November, but supply capacity is sufficient. Vessel return speed is a key factor influencing the supply side.
  • Rates: 2H December FEWB FAK rates remain stable, with Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fluctuations within a narrow range.
  • Equipment: There have been occasional equipment shortages at major Chinese ports, but they remain manageable. Timely Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR) printing and earlier equipment pickups can reduce the risk of missed cargo loading for clients.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Capacity: Demand remains high due to the possibility of a potential ILA strike on the 15th of January. Canadian ports still face congestion due to recent strikes.
  • Space: Space is still limited, primarily in the WMED, where even extra loaders are running full for WMED and NEUR. EMED services are almost running full.
  • Rates: 2H of December followed the same trend as 1H of December, along with November. For January, the majority of carriers are extending their rates.

[Air – Global] Mon 02 Dec – Sun 08 Dec 2024 (Week 49):

  • Spot rate growth (Week 49, WoW & YoY): Global average spot rates rose by +4% WoW to $3.30/kg, reaching a 2024 high. Asia-Pacific origins saw an +8% WoW increase to $4.86/kg, up +19% YoY. Spot rates from Africa increased +12% WoW, while Europe origins rose +3% WoW to $2.93/kg, with a +4% WoW rise to North America ($3.97/kg).
  • Regional spot rate trends (Asia to Europe): Taiwan to Europe rates surged +20% WoW to $4.76/kg, while China to Europe increased +12% WoW to $5.52/kg. Hong Kong to Europe rates dipped slightly (-1% WoW), but remained elevated at $6.22/kg. Significant YoY increases to Europe were noted from Indonesia (+94%), Thailand (+67%), Malaysia (+50%), Singapore (+42%), and Vietnam (+30%).
  • Tonnage trends (Week 49, WoW): Global air cargo tonnages rose +1% WoW, driven by a +14% WoW rebound from North America origins (+15% from the U.S.). Notable WoW volume increases were seen on lanes from China to the U.S. (+10%) and Europe (+12%).
  • Year-on-year (YoY) spot rate overview (Week 49): Average worldwide spot rates rose +21% YoY, led by Middle East & South Asia origins (+62%), the Asia-Pacific (+19%), and Europe (+19%).

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Webinars On-Demand

In case you missed one our webinars this month, watch the on-demand versions below:

Air Market Predictions for 2025

Global Logistics Outlook: Key Trends, Technology, and Strategies for 2025

Unboxing Holiday Trends: Learnings from Black Friday & Cyber Monday

Flexport Customs: Navigating T86, Section 321, and Potential Regulatory Changes

North America Freight Market Update Live

UNICEF & Flexport: The Complexities of Shipping Humanitarian Aid

This Week in News

Domino effects await if ILA strikes again: analyst

With negotiations stalled between the ILA and the US Maritime Alliance, a potential January 15th strike is already shaking up supply chains. Importers have rushed to move cargo, but options like rerouting are quickly disappearing. A strike would bring vessel delays, cargo diversions, export capacity shortages, and prolonged port congestion, especially with new shipping alliance networks adding to the disruption. If the strike drags on, the ripple effects could impact global trade well into March, making a resolution increasingly urgent.

Lunar cargo rush, poor weather clog major Asia ports

Major Asian ports, including Shanghai, Tokyo, Ningbo, Busan, and Manila, face berthing delays of up to five days due to a pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush and weather disruptions. High yard density, vessel bunching, and seasonal closures are compounding the congestion, with similar delays reported at European ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg. Delays are expected to worsen as late vessels return to Asia.

Growth in air cargo demand to decelerate in 2025, IATA says

Air cargo growth will slow to 5.8% in 2025, reaching 80 million tons, fueled by ecommerce and ocean shipping delays, IATA reports. Revenue is expected to rise to $157 billion, with yields remaining 30% above pre-pandemic levels. Capacity growth will lag demand due to freighter production delays. Global airline revenues are set to reach $1 trillion, with $36.6 billion in net profits. Lower fuel costs and efficiency gains will support margins, but rising labor and nonfuel expenses, along with supply chain and regulatory uncertainties, pose challenges. Airlines must focus on cost control to maintain profitability.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI showed potentially meaningful fluctuations as out-of-pattern moves emerged for both China to North Europe and China to the U.S. West Coast. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast exhibited a slight drop.

Week to December 16, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has dropped for China to the U.S. West Coast, falling from 35.5 to 34.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast has shown a minor drop, moving from 63 to 62.5 days. Meanwhile, China to Northern Europe jumped from 70.5 to 72 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: December 12, 2024

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: Shipping lines are pushing for a General Rate Increase (GRI) on December 15th due to strong bookings ahead of the holiday season in the USA and the typical Lunar New Year cargo surge.
  • Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): Initial PSS announcements indicate a rate increase for January 2025.
  • Equipment: Equipment is fluid with no issues reported by carriers.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Space: Demand remains modest, and additional loaders are scheduled for the second half of December. Space is manageable, so carriers may extend or reduce 2H December FAK rates to ensure optimal vessel utilization.
  • Rates: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) declined by $9/TEU in Week 50. With slowing demand, further decreases are expected until the January GRI is implemented.
  • Equipment: To avoid equipment shortages caused by vessel delays or blank sailings, we highly recommend picking up empty containers immediately after carriers release them.
  • Weight restrictions: Most carriers continue to impose weight restrictions to optimize vessel capacity. Please avoid loading heavy 20’ containers, as they may be rejected.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Capacity: January vessel capacity is expected to remain full for departures from both Northern and Southern Europe.
  • Blank sailings: Blank sailings are anticipated during Weeks 51, 52, and 01, primarily affecting the U.S. East Coast and Canada services.
  • Equipment availability: Equipment availability remains tight in certain areas of Central Europe and Southeast Germany.
  • Rates: Most carriers are extending their FAK rates through the end of January, coinciding with the conclusion of the current network.

[Air – Global] Mon 25 Nov – Sun 01 Dec 2024 (Week 48):

  • Global air cargo rates: November rates reached $2.76 per kilo, the highest of 2024, up +6% MoM and +11% YoY. Spot rates rose to $3.09 per kilo (+21% YoY), while contract rates averaged $2.67 per kilo (+10% YoY). Week 48 saw further rate increases (+2% WoW) to $2.84 per kilo, with spot rates up +3% WoW to $3.22 per kilo.
  • Tonnage trends: Global tonnages in November declined -2% MoM, driven by a sharp drop in MESA (-11%) and Europe (-4%), linked to reduced passenger belly capacity. Week 48 chargeable weight dipped -3% WoW, largely due to a -17% WoW decline from North America during Thanksgiving week. Excluding the USA, global tonnages were stable.
  • Asia-Pacific and Americas trends: Strong performance in rates and tonnages continued in Asia-Pacific origins to Europe: Rates from key origins such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan rose +3% to +9% WoW, with a YoY increase of +24% to +46%. Tonnages to Europe from the Asia-Pacific were also significantly up YoY (+20%-29% from China, Hong Kong, and Japan).
  • From the Americas: Central and South America (CSA) rates increased +9% MoM, reflecting robust demand. North America spot rates rose +3% WoW, despite Thanksgiving disruptions.
  • Tonnage growth to Europe: Week 48 saw YoY tonnage increases from multiple regions to Europe: Asia-Pacific (China +24%, Hong Kong +27%, Japan +29%, Vietnam +25%). Americas: Steady growth from CSA origins, contributing to overall market strength.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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Webinars

European Freight Market Update Live

Tuesday, December 17 at 15:00 GMT / 16:00 CET

This Week in News

Trans-Pac settles into sedate December before New Year’s uncertainties

The Trans-Pacific freight market has slowed in December after heavy frontloading, and faces potential disruptions from labor negotiations, potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration, and an early Lunar New Year. Spot rates to the U.S. West Coast have dropped sharply, with variable pricing intensifying market complexity. A potential January 15 ILA strike and elevated inventory levels add pressure as importers prepare for spring shipments. Despite these challenges, record container volumes are projected for January, driven by strong Asia-West Coast trade.

How Generative AI Improves Supply Chain Management

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing supply chain management by enabling rapid insights, scenario analyses, and updates in minutes rather than days. These tools help planners understand system decisions, analyze trends, and answer “what-if” questions by translating human queries into actionable data insights. Early adopters like Microsoft have seen significant efficiency gains, with LLMs supporting server deployments and cost analysis across global data centers.

Trump’s tariffs could spark price hikes, supply chain disruptions, experts say

President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could disrupt North American supply chains, raising costs and prices for consumers. Businesses are concerned about timing and implementation, particularly in sectors like automotive and ecommerce. Experts predict increased costs, inflation, and supply chain shifts to regions like India and Vietnam. Small and medium-sized retailers are likely to face the most challenges, and may struggle to manage profitability amid these changes.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is showing minor fluctuations. China to the U.S. West Coast has exhibited a small drop, China to the U.S. East Coast has shown a small uptick, and China to North Europe has plateaued.

Week to December 9, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has dropped for China to the U.S. West Coast, falling from 36 to 35.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast has shown a minor uptick, moving from 62.5 to 63 days. Meanwhile, China to Northern Europe remained stable at 70.5 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: December 5, 2024

Trends to Watch

[ILA – USMX Labor Dispute Update]

  • The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the employer group United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) are locked in another dispute surrounding automation at American ports, with less than a month and a half to go before the January 15, 2025 deadline.
  • In a Monday (December 2) Facebook post, ILA Executive VP Dennis Daggett criticized semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) for eliminating jobs and posing national security risks.
  • In a response released on December 3, the USMX defended automation as essential for port modernization and addressing land constraints.
  • No negotiations are currently underway. Follow our live blog for more updates.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Rates: Floating rates continue to ease for the West Coast, with open space to both the Pacific Southwest and Northwest. Carriers are eyeing a Dec. 15 General Rate Increase (GRI), pending confirmation, based on pre-tariff and pre-Lunar New Year cargo surges.
  • Space: East Coast and Gulf services remain tight, with most strings full through mid-December.
  • Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): No further PSS reliefs we head into the last month of the year.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Rates: 1H December GRI was announced at $6,000–6,200/FEU, but settled at $5,300–5,500/FEU. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by $558/TEU in Week 49, reflecting GRI implementation. Rates are expected to increase slightly with floating rate adjustments before easing in 2H Dec.
  • Space: Space was full in 1H Dec due to late November overflow. However, with no strong demand upticks or additional loaders arriving, space in 2H Dec is manageable. Premium options are available for those requiring firm space on earlier estimated times of departure (ETDs) or specific service/transit times.
  • Premium options: Occasional equipment shortages persist at main Chinese ports, but remain manageable.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Space: Vessel capacity remains tight due to blank sailings and high demand from both North and South Europe. Restructuring-related blank sailings are expected to continue until the last week of January in 2025, when the new network launches.
  • Extra charges: Some carriers have announced 2025 emission charges, combining the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime Regulation, with increases of 55-75%.
  • Rates: December rates remain stable for most carriers, following November trends for North and South Europe, with slight adjustments in the East Mediterranean, particularly Turkey.

[Air – Global] Mon 18 Nov – Sun 24 Nov 2024 (Week 47):

  • Rates at peak levels: Global average rates rose +4% WoW to $3.21, driven by spot rate increases of +12% from North America and +8% from Europe, marking the highest levels in 2024.
  • Year-on-year gains: Rates globally are up +10% YoY, with spot rates +22% YoY and Asia Pacific/Middle East rates climbing +10% and +48% YoY, respectively. North America remains below 2023 levels.
  • Capacity shifts impacting dynamics: -3% YoY Transatlantic capacity reduction contrasts with +7% YoY growth in Asia-Pacific-North America routes, reflecting increased ecommerce demand.
  • Thanksgiving boosts tonnage: North America’s chargeable weight surged +22% YoY, driven by holiday timing (Thanksgiving this year CW48 iso 47), while global tonnages held steady WoW, with only Central and South America growing +3% WoW.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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This Week in News

Flexport CEO: Companies already shifting imports to West Coast as another possible port strike looms — CNBC

Ryan Petersen, Flexport’s founder and CEO, appeared on CNBC’s Closing Bell: Overtime last Friday (November 29) to share his perspective on the holiday shopping season amid looming challenges, including the potential for a second East Coast port strike, tariff uncertainties, and more. As retailers are entering the holiday season facing significant headwinds: a shortened shopping period, the potential effects of President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs, and lingering disruptions from October’s port strike, Petersen described this holiday season as the most challenging year-end for businesses since the onset of COVID-19.

Flexport is using generative AI to create the “holy grail” of shipping — Freethink

Flexport uses AI to modernize global trade logistics. The company employs generative AI to digitize documents, streamline communication with truckers via AI bots, and develop “knowledge agents” that centralize expertise on trade regulations and logistics. These innovations aim to automate 50% of manual tasks by 2025, reducing global shipping costs by 5%.

ILA targets rail-mounted gantry cranes amid impasse in port labor talks — Journal of Commerce

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is at an impasse with the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) over the introduction of semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs), a key point in ongoing contract negotiations to avoid a January port strike. While RMGs increase terminal capacity and efficiency, especially in land-constrained East Coast ports, the union views them as a threat to jobs, safety, and national security, citing risks of hacking and job elimination. The USMX argues that embracing automation is essential for ports to remain competitive, but the ILA remains firm, framing the fight as a pivotal moment for the union’s future.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is showing minor fluctuations, with small drops from China to Northern Europe and China to the U.S. East Coast. Meanwhile, the OTI remains stable for China to the U.S. West Coast.

Week to December 2, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has remained stable for China to the U.S. West Coast at 35.5 days. Meanwhile, China to Northern Europe came down by half a day, falling from 71 to 70.5 days, and China to the U.S. East Coast by one day, moving from 63.5 to 62.5 days.

 

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Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: November 27, 2024

Trends to Watch

Happy Thanksgiving!

We want to take a moment to express our gratitude for your continued trust and support. In a world where change is constant, the supply chain sector is no exception — from shifting trade policies to volatile freight markets and labor disputes. We’re here to help you navigate these complexities with one simple mission: making global trade easy for everyone. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s edition.

[Tariff Watch]

  • On Monday, November 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he plans to impose sweeping tariffs immediately upon taking office. On Day 1, Trump intends to implement a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, alongside a 10% tariff on products from China.
  • Trump stated that the tariffs are part of his strategy to address the flow of drugs—particularly fentanyl—and illegal immigration across the U.S. border. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem,” he said. “It’s time for them to pay a very big price.” In a separate post, he also accused China of smuggling fentanyl into the U.S.
  • These proposed tariffs could conflict with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade pact Trump himself signed into law in 2020, which largely promotes duty-free trade among the three nations.
  • Want to know what these tariffs could mean for your business and how to stay ahead? Read our live blog for the latest updates, insights, and actionable strategies.

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Floating rates: Rates remain manageable on the West Coast, with space availability open, particularly in the Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, East and Gulf Coast rates are steady, supported by full-service strings through mid-December.
  • Carrier focus: Carriers are preparing for a potential General Rate Increase (GRI) on East Coast routes effective December 1, pending final confirmation. West Coast rates are being extended without immediate adjustments.
  • Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): Initial reductions in PSSs are being applied to West Coast routes beginning December 1st, while no changes are planned for East or Gulf Coast routes at this stage.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Demand fluctuations: Demand picked up slightly in the second half of November, driven by anticipation surrounding the upcoming December GRI. A stabilization is expected in the second half of December due to the holiday season in Europe.
  • December GRI: Carriers announced a December GRI at $6,000–$6,200 per TEU, with proactive adjustments based on vessel projections. Some reductions are expected.
  • Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) movements: The SCFI dropped slightly by $31/TEU in Week 48, reflecting FAK extensions for the second half of November. With the December GRI in effect, the SCFI is expected to rebound in Weeks 49 and 50.
  • Equipment availability: Occasional equipment shortages have been reported at China’s main ports, but remain manageable. Premium options are available for those requiring firm space on earlier estimated times of departure (ETDs) or specific service/transit times.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Demand levels: Demand remains strong for both North and South Europe, with heightened activity in the West Mediterranean. Clients aiming for ETAs before January 15 are prioritizing earlier sailings.
  • Blank sailing impact: The blank sailing program for Weeks 47–52 is creating a backlog, as it cannot fully accommodate the increased demand for earlier sailings.
  • Equipment availability: Equipment levels are generally good, with some exceptions in hinterland areas where equipment is primarily released on carrier haulage.
  • Rate stability: December rates remain stable across most carriers, continuing the trends observed in November for both North and South Europe.

[Air – Global] Mon 11 Nov – Sun 17 Nov 2024 (Week 46):

  • Europe to Americas rate surge: Spot rates surged +57% to Brazil and +36% to South America in two weeks, driven by severe congestion and a temporary cargo embargo at São Paulo’s GRU. Transatlantic rates to the USA climbed +33% over two weeks, fueled by reduced capacity from winter schedules and Thanksgiving demand.
  • Global spot rate trends: Worldwide spot rates increased +4% WoW and are +25% higher YoY, reflecting strong demand and constrained capacity in key regions. Rates from the Middle East & South Asia remain elevated (+73% YoY).
  • Asia-Pacific stability: Rates from the Asia-Pacific to Europe rose +11% (China), while USA routes dipped -4% WoW. Advance planning has tempered peak season volatility, preventing a significant capacity crunch.
  • Europe origins: Rates from Europe rose +10% WoW to $2.71 per kilo, now +23% higher YoY, bolstered by high load factors and seasonal demand.
  • Market drivers: Rate increases are driven by reduced airline capacity, holiday-related demand surges, and operational disruptions like congestion at major hubs. Effective capacity planning in Asia is mitigating sharper rate hikes globally.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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This Week in News

Trump Pledges Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, signaling his intent to follow through on his campaign rhetoric. He announced a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing concerns about drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and fentanyl production. These measures could disrupt the USMCA trade agreement, which facilitated $1.8 trillion in trade in 2022, and raise consumer prices.

Port of Los Angeles Sees Sustained Import Surge Ahead of Tariffs

The Port of Los Angeles processed 905,000 containers in October, a 25% increase from last year, as businesses rush to import goods ahead of potential tariff hikes and labor disruptions at other ports. The Port of Long Beach also saw near-record volumes, with the two ports handling a combined 950,303 import containers. This surge, part of an extended peak season, is expected to continue through the year due to strong consumer demand and concerns over tariffs and labor issues. The Port of Los Angeles is on track to reach 10 million TEUs by the end of 2024.

Tightening Europe decarbonization measures will raise shipper costs: carriers

Carriers are warning that Emissions Trading System (ETS) surcharges will rise significantly in 2025 as the European Union expands its carbon tax to cover 70% of carrier emissions, up from 40% in 2024. This increase in ETS costs will be compounded by the new FuelEU Maritime regulation, which requires carriers to use more expensive low-emission fuels starting January 1, 2025. The ETS, which operates under a “cap-and-trade” system, will require carriers to purchase EU allowances for CO2 emissions from journeys starting or ending in the EU. By 2026, carriers will be responsible for 100% of emissions from these voyages.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

__This week, the Flexport OTI is showing a drop from China to the U.S. West Coast, while China to Northern Europe and China to the U.S. East Coast continues their gradual ascent. __

Week to November 25, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has dropped for China to the U.S. West Coast, falling from 38 to 35.5 days. Meanwhile, China to Northern Europe and China to the U.S. East Coast have each added 0.5 days to their OTI, moving from 70.5 to 71 days and 63 to 63.5 days, respectively.

 

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Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Global Logistics Update: November 21, 2024

Trends to Watch

[Ocean – TPEB]

  • Space tightness: Space availability on the West Coast, particularly in the Pacific Southwest, has improved due to additional loader capacity expected by the end of November. However, East and Gulf Coast rates remain stable as most service strings stay fully utilized through November.
  • Rate trends: Floating rates on the West Coast remain manageable, while East Coast rates are holding steady. Carriers are beginning to focus on the upcoming General Rate Increase (GRI) for East Coast routes, with rates expected to adjust around December 1, pending final confirmation.
  • Negotiation pressures: ILA negotiations and potential tariff actions remain the key sources of pressure on rates and capacity.
  • Fixed rates and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs): Fixed rates and PSSs are stable for the remainder of November.

[Ocean – FEWB]

  • Space tightness: Space remains constrained in the second half of November due to blank sailings and a growing roll pool. Carriers have announced another GRI for December, with rates projected at $6,000–$6,200.
  • Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) trends: The SCFI dropped slightly by $29/TEU in Week 47, reflecting the extended FAK rates for 2H November. Another slight decline is expected before an increase aligned with December’s GRI.
  • Equipment availability: While occasional equipment shortages persist at China’s main ports, the situation remains manageable. For shippers who need firm space on earlier estimated times of departure (ETDs) or specific service/transit times, premium options are available.

[Ocean – TAWB]

  • Space constraints: Space remains tight in November and December across most carriers for both North and South Europe. New York remains the port in highest demand.
  • Blank sailings: Planned blank sailings are expected in Weeks 47–52, primarily targeting the US Gulf and the US East Coast (USEC), with departures from both North Europe and the East Mediterranean.
  • Equipment availability: Overall equipment availability looks good, with some shortages reported in Southern Germany.
  • Rate trends: December rates are tracking in line with November trends.

[Air – Global]

  • Capacity: Global air cargo capacity remained stable compared to the previous week, with no significant changes reported.
  • Chargeable weight/tonnage: Worldwide chargeable weight flown in Week 45 was stable week-on-week (WoW), with small increases from Europe, Africa, and Central and South America (CSA) origins offset by decreases from North America and Middle East and South Asia (MESA) (both -4% WoW). Compared to last year, worldwide tonnages were up year-on-year (YoY) by just +2% in Week 45.
  • Rates: Average global spot rates recorded a further +5% WoW rise in Week 45, taking them +24% above their levels at this time last year. Spot prices from the Asia-Pacific rose by +6% WoW to US$4.43 per kilo, Europe also exhibited a +6% WoW increase to $2.49 per kilo, and CSA rates rose by +10% to $2.04 per kilo. North America recorded a +5% increase to $1.83 per kilo, while Africa and MESA saw WoW falls of -4% and -2%, respectively.
  • Year-on-year rate changes: Compared to the equivalent week last year, spot prices this year remain significantly elevated, notably from the Asia-Pacific (+25%), MESA (+70%), Europe (+14%), and CSA (+14%), with Africa also +10% higher and North America recording a +5% increase YoY.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

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This Week in News

American Companies Are Stocking Up to Get Ahead of Trump’s China Tariffs

Businesses are preparing for potential sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods under Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies, with some rushing to stockpile inventory and others seeking long-term alternatives to Chinese suppliers. This mirrors the response to the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, when companies front-loaded imports, leading to a temporary surge in Chinese exports. Despite some efforts to diversify supply chains to countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, China’s established infrastructure and competitive pricing remain unmatched, making full replacement challenging.

NVOs eager to get past carriers’ tight grip on unexpectedly favorable market

In 2024, ocean carriers tightened control over NVO contracts, demanding more spot cargo/freight-all-kinds (FAK) and closely monitoring compliance with named account contracts (NAC). This forced NVOs to secure more FAK cargo and adhere strictly to NAC terms. Looking ahead, increased vessel capacity in 2025 could ease pressure on NVOs as carriers compete to fill space. However, carriers are expected to maintain strict monitoring of contract compliance, leveraging technology to enforce terms regardless of market shifts.

How shippers can navigate West Coast rail congestion

A surge in container volumes on the U.S. West Coast, driven by peak season, strike mitigation efforts, and tariff concerns, is straining rail operations. Dwell times at the Port of Los Angeles have reached eight days, while Long Beach remains more fluid at four days. Rail operators like BNSF and Union Pacific are addressing congestion through staging yards and capacity expansion, but disruptions persist. Shippers are turning to costly alternatives like cross-docking, air freight, and trucking to bypass delays. Diversions to ports in Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. East Coast are also on the rise. Experts predict rail congestion may ease by Q1 2025, barring additional disruptions such as labor disputes.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI has decreased from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Northern Europe, and remained stable from China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to November 18, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) has decreased from China to the U.S. West Coast and from China to Northern Europe, moving from 40 to 38 days and 71 to 70.5 days, respectively. Meanwhile, the OTI from China to the U.S. East Coast has plateaued at 63 days.

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Source from Flexport.com