TPM23: Ocean Alliance could be next domino to fall after 2M

Carrier alliances are undergoing a major shift as rates plummet and costs look set to increase, analyst Lars Jensen told TPM23 attendees.

The Ocean Alliance could be the next major ship-sharing agreement to sink, possibly sometime this year, as its members chart different strategies and look to gain market share during the current “rate war” among ocean carriers, industry analyst Lars Jensen said Wednesday.

Speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM23 conference in Long Beach, Jensen said ocean carriers face a market similar to the one seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis when a massive buildup of ship capacity came up against weakening demand.

While demand could recover should inventory destocking occur through the spring and US consumers keep spending, Jensen said the industry faces other headwinds, such as political scrutiny over the alliances’ anti-trust exemptions and higher costs from stringent carbon emissions rules. The result, he added, is that carriers are thinking more about “who do I want to spend the next few years with” as has happened with the pending dissolution of the 2M Alliance.

“It’s a normal downcycle we are going through, then there are some elements that are slightly different,” Jensen, CEO and partner of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce analyst, said. “Rates are coming down faster than they went up. It is a rate war.”

“2M is the just the first domino to fall,” he added. “When it was formed, you had two parties with the same strategic interest. Now you have two parties whose interests are no longer aligned.”

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Jensen, one of the first to predict the breakup of 2M, said at the time that Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s large orderbook of new vessels allowed it to operate on a standalone basis across many trade lanes, without having to share space on Maersk vessels. A similar dynamic could play out with Ocean Alliance member Cosco Shipping, which has the second-largest orderbook of new ships behind MSC, Jensen said.

Cosco faces renewed urgency to fill those new vessels due to a loss of market share over the last two years that Jensen attributed to China’s COVID-19 lockdowns and the resulting shipping delays out of the country.

“I’m going to expect Cosco to be very aggressively going after market share,” Jensen said. “Who’s the easiest prey to go after? That would be customers already on your ships through your alliance partners.”

“That’s not going to sit well with [Ocean Alliance members] CMA CGM and Evergreen Marine,” Jensen said, adding that Taiwan’s Evergreen faces the additional tension of working with a China-based carrier.

Indeed, Cosco recently upsized capacity on an Asia to US Gulf service it operates on a standalone basis, but that is also offered through the Ocean Alliance. The new capacity on that Cosco service now evenly matches one that CMA CGM also offers on a standalone basis to the US Gulf.

Likewise, CMA CGM is pursuing a strategy not similar to Maersk’s, “but somewhere in the same direction,” Jensen said.

As does Maersk, CMA CGM looks to own US terminal assets after striking acquisition deals on the US East and West coasts. CMA CGM’s North American President Peter Levesque said during his appearance at TPM23 Tuesday that owning terminals allows the carrier to “determine our own destiny.”

The Ocean Alliance’s agreement is set to expire in 2027, Jensen said, but he noted the current market uncertainty and the pending breakup of 2M could hasten a decision not to renew the Ocean Alliance in 2023.

Regarding THE Alliance, Jensen said “it’s slightly stable” due to similar operating strategies and less aggressive ship ordering. However, he said the changing carrier landscape may make THE Alliance’s two biggest members, Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE), reconsider their partnerships. Jensen even posited that the two could decide to merge as a way to take on ever-larger ocean carriers.

“This is not the first time we’ve seen alliances break up and get re-formed,” he said. “The challenge is once everyone’s dance card is open, Hapag and ONE will have some thinking to do about who do we actually want to be lined up with now that everything is shifting.”

船公司减班救市!三大联盟持续消减运力!可能出现舱位紧张!尽早制定出货计划

随着全球贸易航线的需求水平急剧下降,运价暴跌,航运公司正准备实施自疫情爆发以来最严厉的班轮服务削减。

随着全球贸易航线的需求水平急剧下降,运价暴跌,航运公司正准备实施自疫情爆发以来最严厉的班轮服务削减。

为了稳住运价,船公司们停班停航,降低航速,集装箱航运市场一夜之间“风云变色”。继最近跨太平洋航线服务停航减班之后,三大联盟正在考虑暂停或合并一些亚洲-北欧环线服务,以减轻预订急剧下降的影响,并减缓运费大幅下滑的侵蚀。

10月11日,马士基发布公告表示,由于预测全球需求将减少,马士基正在寻求相应地平衡运输服务网络。在上月底暂停两条跨太平洋航线后,其将取消亚洲-北欧航线的运力。

马士基表示,第一艘受影响的船舶将是10月26日从宁波启航服务于2M“AE1/Shogun”环线运力为16652TEU的”MSC Hamburg”轮,该船途经宁波、厦门、盐田、马来西亚丹戎帕拉帕斯以及欧洲的鹿特丹、泽布吕赫和不莱梅港。

根据eeSea数据,该环线部署了11艘船舶,平均运力为15414标准箱,往返行程需77天。

马士基表示:“我们的总体目标是为客户提供可预测性,并通过为受影响的船舶提供替代路线和覆盖范围,将供应链中断降至最低。”与此同时,马士基的2M合作伙伴MSC昨天表示,“MSC Hamburg”的航行只是暂时取消,这表明服务将在一周内恢复。

但订舱量(尤其是来自中国的订舱量)的大幅下滑,意味着三大联盟别无选择,只能对其进行合理化调整以避免即期和短期合同运价进一步暴跌,对其维持利润的长期合同产生负面影响。

事实上,一位服务亚洲-北欧航线船公司的消息人士最近表示,该公司的订舱量“非常糟糕”。“这是疫情开始以来见到最糟糕的前景,舱位预订需求将下降了25%。”他补充说,未来几周到英国的订舱量“特别少”,但希望这“只是一个小插曲”。他表示:“黄金周假期过后市场需求疲软,今年可能是最糟糕的一年。”

随着进入需求持续疲软的时期,即期运价一直在下降,航运巨头们被迫采取积极措施来管理运力,通过取消更多的航行,在某些情况下,甚至终止航线。接下来,为了救市船公司们可能会取消更多欧洲线航行。甚至有可能出现舱位紧张状况。

在此提醒,近期要出货的货主货代朋友们,与船公司、客户等做好沟通,一定要尽早做好出货计划,以免影响出货!转发周知~

文章来源:综合外媒Theloadstar、马士基公告等,维运网