Freight Market Update:2023 年 5 月 3 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [Ocean – TPEB] Effective capacity still is at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings and try to reign in further rate drops. Space remains wide open and rates have dropped to pre-pandemic levels.
  • [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity remains open, expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
  • [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This is putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand, we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2.
  • [Air – Asia] The market is stabilizing and rates will remain higher than Q1 while demand has recovered and remains relatively stable. Some freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on Transpacific. An increase in passenger capacity as summer approaches should keep the overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable and maintain a healthy supply demand balance.
  • [Trucking – N. America] The port of Houston discontinued Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours as of Apr 29, 2023. The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—Gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide.​​​​
Expert Voices
Container throughput at Laredo on the U.S. – Mexico border reached a new monthly high in March, jumping by more than 30,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) from February to reach nearly 235,000. To date, the evidence for near-shoring has been murky. Here we look at how it is perhaps coming into clearer view.

继长滩和纽瓦克之后,3月份美国第三大最繁忙的港口并不是一个 "港口",或者至少不是那种海浪拍打着码头的港口。它是一个内陆港,离海有一百多英里,大多数 "货物 "都是在半挂车的后面和蜿蜒的火车上通过,没有被卸下。

它是德克萨斯州的拉雷多,或塔毛利帕斯州的新拉雷多,取决于你坐在边界的哪一边。这也是暗示美国贸易流可能发生转变的主要指标之一。

下图将通过拉雷多的月度装载标准箱与2019年大流行前的月度平均数约16.5万个进行了比较(蓝色直线虚线)。记得在2019年,美国的实际进口量呈下降趋势,在大流行病的发生造成的最初下降后,我们随后开始看到相当大的增长。

Turning back to Laredo, with the exception of a likely-seasonal drop in the May of 2022, volumes have remained well-above that average for the past twelve months, culminating in the March spike, which represented a 14.8% month-on-month increase and 17.5% increase year-on-year. By contrast, total seaborne TEUs into the U.S. were only up 6.6% month-on-month and still 24.9% lower than March 2022.

使得这一高峰--以及之前几个月的数量--更加耐人寻味的是,它出现在美国动荡的海运进口、有弹性的消费者支出以及批发和零售库存水平之间明显脱节的时候。

拉雷多的活动增加可能提供了谜题的一个部分。然而,这可能只是暂时的激增,数量最终会回到历史水平。事实上,如果说过去几年教会了我们什么,那就是看起来的趋势可能是什么都不是。

本周新闻
在全球贸易的新时代,供应链是如何被重塑的?

全球供应链可能已经摆脱了COVID大流行带来的大量干扰,但这并不意味着一切都可以,或应该恢复 "正常"。那些利用这段时间将他们在过去三年中所学到的经验付诸行动的公司,是那些为自己的长期成功做好准备的公司。供应链的弹性、多样化(供应商、合作伙伴、路线等)和可持续性是托运人在2023年下半年应该关注的关键领域。

灰翼公司的新SeaGPT解决了海事船员经理的电子邮件难题

总部位于新加坡的海事智能平台Greywing(得到Y Combinator和Flexport等投资者的支持)宣布推出 seaGPT--一个针对海事船员船长的人工智能聊天机器人。seaGPT在后台运行,利用Greywing的专有数据库和与全球18000多个港口的整合,加快船员的上岗和下岗。

 

Scoure from Flexport.com

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