值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-Europe: The Red Sea situation continues to impact freight market development. Vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope and vessel schedules continue to fluctuate, impacting on-time performance & reliability.
• After the Day 8 product reshuffle of Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance blank sailings, market capacity dropped by 10-13% and spaces are getting tight for 2H April. Vessel utilization is good and claimed at more than 95%, with roll pool being built up for the Labor Day Holiday.
• Carriers are still implementing GRIs (General Rate Increases) to keep rates from dropping further. Some carriers recently announced rates at a $4000/40’ level for 2H April. Per the current market, demand is not overwhelming and vessels are mostly full due to blank sailings, so GRIs may not hold.
• For historical updates on the Red Sea situation, read more in Global Ocean Carriers Halt Red Sea Transits – What to Expect.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Global air cargo rates increased throughout March, reaching within -7% of the previous year’s levels and recovering to Q4 peak levels, driven by strong demand from Asia and the Middle East.
• Average global rates rose to $2.48 per kilo in week 13, following consistent weekly increases, with the gap from the previous year narrowing from -19% in early 2023 to -7% by the end of March.
• The recovery to Q4 peak levels is attributed to rate increases from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA), fueled by cross-border e-commerce demand and disruptions in container shipping.
• Global air cargo tonnages in March were up +6% year on year, with a slowdown in growth compared to the January-February period, and tonnages for weeks 12 and 13 were down -3% compared to the preceding two weeks.
• Tonnages from key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs like Dubai and Colombo remain elevated due to disruptions in container shipping, with Dubai-Europe and Colombo-Europe tonnages up significantly year on year.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators for China to US West Coast Decreases, While China to US East Coast and China to Europe Increase

Week to April 8, 2024
This week, the OTI for China to Northern Europe increased slightly to 67 days due to continued re-routings from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope. The OTI for China to the US East Coast also increased significantly to 69 days as some carriers route westward around Cape of Good Hope. Most have decided to use the Panama Canal despite continued slot restrictions. We do not expect the Baltimore situation to impact the China to East Coast OTI overall. The OTI for China to the US West Coast continued to decrease this week to 32 days.

 

 

来源于Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-Europe: The Red Sea situation continues to impact freight market development. Vessels continue rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and vessel schedules continue fluctuating.
• Demand remains flat but is picking up. The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Eurozone in March stood at 96.3, surpassing both the previous value and market expectations. With Labor Day approaching, there will be a long holiday in Mainland China. Production may be impacted, so expect bookings to increase in late April and slow down in the first week of May.
• General Rate Increases (GRI) were implemented by carriers to keep rates from dropping further. After a 9-week continuous drop, the latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by $51/TEU for week 14. Most of the carriers successfully pushed for a GRI in the 1st half of April. With most vessels projected to be full, expect another round of GRI for the 2nd half of April, as there are around 2 million TEU of new capacity for delivery in the coming months. Most of the capacities are mega ships where Asia-Europe trade will be the primary option. Expect GRI to be on and off in the coming months until all new ships are available.

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Air cargo rates have increased globally, particularly from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA), driven by disruptions in container shipping and a high demand for cross-border e-commerce shipments, with average global rates up by around +3% in week 12 to $2.45.
• Despite a slight decrease in global tonnages (-2%) in week 12 compared to the previous week, there was a +1% increase in tonnages and a +6% increase in average rates over the last two weeks compared to the prior period, with notable rate increases from MESA (+10%) and Asia Pacific (+7%).
• Year-on-year data shows significant improvements in demand, with global tonnages up by +8%, led by rises from MESA (+15%) and Asia Pacific (+12%), amid continued disruptions in Asia-Europe container shipping and strong e-commerce demand.
• Air cargo capacity has significantly increased over the last year (+9% globally), especially from Asia Pacific (+19%) and Central & South America (+12%), while average rates remain above pre-COVID levels, despite a year-on-year decrease.
• Notable regional highlights include a surge in demand and rates from MESA, with YoY tonnage up +15% and rates up +29% in weeks 11 and 12, and significant increases in air freight traffic from the Eastern Mediterranean to MESA due to container shipping disruptions, with Athens and Istanbul experiencing notable growth in tonnages to Dubai.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Ocean Timeliness Indicators for China to U.S. West Coast Decrease, While China to U.S. East Coast Increases.

Week to April 1, 2024

This week, the OTI for China to Northern Europe remained steady at 65 days due to carrier re-routings from the Suez Canal around the Cape of Good Hope. The OTI for China to the U.S. East Coast also remains elevated significantly to 62 days as some carriers route westward around Cape of Good Hope. Most have decided to use the Panama Canal despite continued slot restrictions. The OTI for China to the U.S. West Coast decreased to 36 days after a previous increase.

 

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - FEWB]

• For Asia-Europe trade, re-routing via Cape of Good Hope continues. Over the weekend, a Chinese-owned oil tanker called Huang Pu was attacked. Carriers are investigating the Indian Ocean status as well to determine if it’s safe for transport.
• Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM Group, COSCO Shipping, Evergreen, and OOCL) Day 8 Product Update effective April 2024:
  • Restructure of all Asia to North Europe loops via Good Hope.
  • Offering 6 loops from Asia to North Europe with the widest coverage and largest capacity on the trade.
  • Suspension of FAL7 loop and Pusan call on FAL1. Pusan, Nansha, Hong Kong, and Ho Chi Minh will continue to be served with a dedicated mainliner/feeder to connect with our 6 loops sailing to North Europe with improved frequency and reliability.
  • The Tangier call will be switched from FAL3 to FAL1. Dunkirk will become the first call on FAL3, offering the French customers best-in-class service with two direct fast services: FAL1 into Le Havre and FAL3 into Dunkirk.
  • New FAL1 rotation: Ningbo, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Tangier, Le Havre, Hamburg, Gdansk, Rotterdam, Port Kelang, Ningbo.
  • New FAL3 rotation: Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Yantian, Singapore, Dunkirk, Rotterdam, Southampton, Antwerp, Le Havre, Algeciras, Singapore, Qingdao.
• Carriers are preparing to implement General Rate Increases (GRI) for April by $400-600 per FEU. While demand remains flat at the moment, more discussion is ongoing about current offerings and long-term deal finalizations, especially if the current Red Sea surcharges are upheld by carriers.
• For historical updates on the Red Sea situation, read more in Global Ocean Carriers Halt Red Sea Transits – What to Expect.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Receiving for laden Exports at POL USBAL is closed until further notice.
• Contingency options for U.S. Exporters who would traditionally use USBAL:
  • If moving cargo to North Europe, use POLs NYC, PHL, and Norfolk.
  • If moving to the MED, Middle East, ISC, or Africa, use POLs NYC and Norfolk.
  • If moving to Asia and you want to route all water service, use POLs NYC and Norfolk.
  • If moving to Asia and you want to avoid USEC altogether, FTL and transload to a USWC port or CHI.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

Francis Scott Key Bridge Collision and Collapse – What to Expect

At about 1:30 am ET on Tuesday, March 26, the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, MD collapsed after being struck by a container ship. The ship, named DALI, is about 300-meters long and 94,000 tonnes. The vessel is operated on charter by Maersk on the 2M Alliance service between Asia and the US East Coast.

The DALI was traveling from Baltimore to Colombo, Sri Lanka when, according to local reports and videos, the ship lost power prior to hitting a structural pillar of the bridge. The bridge collapsed instantaneously. Local authorities are treating the situation as a mass casualty incident; our thoughts are with those impacted.

While it’s still early, we anticipate considerable downstream impacts to the Port of Baltimore, US East Coast ports, and regional rail and trucking networks.

Immediate Impact of Bridge Collision and Collapse
As of March 26, there were more than 40 ships, including cargo ships, currently inside the Port of Baltimore or on the Patapsco River west of the Francis Scott Key Bridge that were unable to leave the area. The impact to cargo depends on exactly where it is and the approach the Port of Baltimore takes in the evolving situation. Cargo already discharged from vessels should be able to be picked up from port. Cargo not yet discharged from vessels will likely experience discharge delays based on port operations. And cargo on trapped vessels that are planned to be unloaded at other East Coast ports will be subject to the direction taken by the vessel operator. There’s potential to redistribute the cargo to other ports via truck or rail, but this would require a coordinated effort from the vessel operators and the Port of Baltimore.

Container vessels with Baltimore in their rotation – 107, as of the incident – will likely head to surrounding ports like Norfolk or New York/New Jersey and discharge cargo there. Norfolk and New York/New Jersey are typical port calls for vessels that head to Baltimore, so while the direct vessel schedules should be able to adapt to the situation, the positioning of cargo on the vessels will likely cause discharge delays and importers will have to navigate different options such as long distance drayage or transloading to deliver the cargo to the final destination.

The collapse of the bridge implies that water access to the container terminals, along with various other terminals at the port in Baltimore, will be temporarily blocked.

Downstream Effects to Neighboring Ports
While the Port of Baltimore is one of the smaller ports by containerized freight volume on the US East Coast, handling roughly 800k TEUs in 2023, compared to neighboring ports like the Port of New York and New Jersey at 5.1 million TEUs in 2023 and the Port of Norfolk at 2.4 million TEUs in 2023, it’s an essential port with specialized infrastructure to handle bulk commodities in a major manufacturing corridor.

To put it into context, if the cargo originally destined for the Port of Baltimore is redistributed exclusively among the Ports of NY/NJ and Norfolk, throughput at these ports would increase by just under 10%. The moderate volume increase is less of a concern, as the bigger question is whether the truck and rail systems can quickly adapt to handle this sudden 10% surge in cargo volume.

A major unknown as of now is how long it will take for the waterway to be cleared and Port of Baltimore operations to return to normal. The resolution timeline will determine the magnitude of downstream impacts to port and inland operations on the East Coast.

The Takeaway
This is an evolving situation. It’s too early to tell how rates to the US East Coast could be impacted, if ocean carriers will establish temporary booking stops to Baltimore, or if shippers will elect to re-route to alternate US East Coast ports or even the US West Coast as point of entry. Flexport is in contact with all ocean carriers that call Baltimore and will continue to provide updates.

Before making changes to your shipments, such as electing to re-route cargo, reach out to your dedicated Flexport account manager to discuss all your options. Flexport can help you design a routing to balance cost and speed, based on the current advice for your trade lane.

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

来源于Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Dubai to Europe air cargo tonnages have seen a substantial increase, with a +205% rise compared to last year and a +7% increase from the previous week, driven by disruptions in Asia-Europe container shipping while overall global demand stabilized.
• Key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs, including Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok, have experienced significant air cargo demand to Europe since early 2023, with Dubai-Europe tonnages more than doubling year-on-year due to the Red Sea situation.
• While Bangkok to Europe demand continues to rise, with a +33% year-on-year increase in week 10, Colombo to Europe demand shows signs of softening, with a growth of +20% compared to +35% the previous week.
• Globally, air cargo tonnages stabilized with a slight increase in average rates to $2.32 per kilo in week 10, following a post-Lunar New Year recovery in demand, particularly from the Asia Pacific region.
• Worldwide air cargo capacity is up by +9% year-on-year, with significant increases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, while average rates remain above pre-COVID levels, indicating a robust recovery in the sector.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-North Europe: For Asia-Europe trade, most vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. Some carriers are investigating the possibility of routing back to the Suez Canal, but so far no further announcements. The news indicates that vessels in the Indian Ocean and the Cape of Good Hope may also be impacted by the situation. We’re closely monitoring and following up with carriers.
• After Maersk & Hapag Lloyd announced the Gemini Cooperation commencing in 2025, Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM Group, COSCO Shipping, Evergreen, and OOCL) confirmed the renewal of The Ocean Alliance partnership for another 5 years. Following the renewal, effective April 2024, there will be some service adjustments. Details to follow once we learn more. So far, the new deployment plan shared by Ocean Alliance for Asia to Europe would be:
  • 6 services between Asia and Northern Europe.
  • 4 services between Asia and the Mediterranean.
• The floating market rate keeps dropping. Some carriers are preparing to implement GRI for April by $600-800 per FEU. While demand remains flat at the moment, more discussion is ongoing about current offerings and long-term finalizations, especially if the current Red Sea Surcharges will be upheld by carriers.

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

TPM24 Takeaways

There is no better chance to learn about the state of the industry than the annual Transpacific Maritime (TPM) Conference. TPM ‘24 took place between March 3-6 at the Long Beach Convention Center. Flexport’s team was on site to chat with, and learn from, our customers and carrier partners—both current and potential. Here are our top insights for the coming year.

• Uncertainties Persist. The supply chain is getting more complex every day. The situation in the Red Sea was top of mind at TPM, as well as Panama Canal restrictions, and ILA contract negotiations. Uncertainty drives anxiety. As a global logistics platform, we can help de-risk the supply chain for our customers and give actionable, data-driven advice on how to manage your procurement decisions in 2024 and beyond.
• Diversifying means protection. In previous years, shippers and service providers would get into a meeting room and already know exactly what the rates would be. Everyone would sign the contract, and the following year, sign the same contract again. That’s no longer the case. With this market’s persistent uncertainty over the past few years, customers are starting to embrace how diversifying their carrier and forwarder portfolio can foster more agility. For example, larger customers are willing to embrace different routings to ensure disruptions don’t impact their business too strongly. Shippers are also looking for unique ways to keep their business moving, and really understanding how forwarders and brokers can create opportunities and solutions for better protection when moving supplies globally.
• Technology and visibility are the future. Customers are excited about technology and modernization. Current and potential customers had a lot of questions about integrations, and almost every shipper we spoke with is looking for real-time, accurate shipment and SKU-level visibility. Everyone is data-hungry and looking for solid solutions. Having visibility into your goods is not just critical for managing an efficient, modern supply chain; visibility helps shippers — Flexport’s customers — improve the customer experience for their own customers, too. Visibility is foundational to managing customer expectations as consumers want to know when they’ll receive their goods, and if they’re delayed, why.
• Relationships matter. Shippers are looking for partners. After the last few years and the tumultuous supply chain we’ve experienced, now more than ever people are looking for good relationships and the ability to talk to someone they trust. There are a lot of questions about the future, and customers are looking for great advice on how to navigate tumultuous waters together. Many of our customers are asking how we handled the disruptions in the past and how we thought outside of the box. It’s important to be nimble and agile with a purpose to provide efficient solutions.

The Year Ahead
After TPM, rates get locked and RFP season goes into full gear. To ensure you feel confident about forecasts for the year ahead before launching your RFPs, don’t hesitate to reach out to your Flexport account managers and our teams to discuss strategies for Fixed/Floating, and BCO/NVO volume contracts.

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Overall Growth in Demand: The first two months of the year saw a +13% increase in worldwide air cargo demand compared to the same period last year, driven by strong performance from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins and recovery from the Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonal dip.
• February’s Performance: Preliminary figures for February indicate an +8% year-on-year increase in air cargo tonnages, with a +4% increase when adjusting for the leap year day. This follows a +17% increase in January, showcasing a consistent upward trend despite the complications of comparing months due to LNY variances.
• Post-LNY Recovery: Three weeks after the later Lunar New Year in 2024, demand had largely rebounded from the post-LNY dip, especially in the key Asia Pacific region, mirroring patterns from 2023 but with somewhat stronger demand in 2024.
• Regional Dynamics: Strong rebounds were observed in intra-Asia Pacific traffic, up by +44% in Weeks 8 and 9 compared with Weeks 6 and 7, and significant year-on-year growth in tonnages from MESA in the same weeks (+22%), reflecting continued disruption in sea-air shipping routes due to the situation in the Red Sea.
• Global Pricing and Capacity Trends: Despite a global average rate decline of -16% compared to last year, rates from MESA are up +13%, indicating a regional anomaly. Global air cargo capacity is up by +9% over last year, with notable increases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, highlighting an overall growth in the air cargo industry above pre-COVID levels.
• Average global rates remain above pre-COVID levels (+27% compared to February 2019).

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-North Europe: The Red Sea situation continuously impacts freight market developments. Some vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, and some carriers are investigating the situation and re-routing back via the Suez Canal. More to follow as information becomes available.
• Demand is flat, and carriers are further adjusting rates for more fresh cargo in 2H March. Carriers are still upholding PSS/Contingency Surcharges due to rerouting vessels, however, more questions about the actual additional cost are being brought up and further adjustments are expected in April.
• Carriers are actively investigating demand & supply. We’re seeing vessels open for booking till last minute, which may reflect the oversupply situation. If soft demand continues from Week 12 onwards, we expect there could be more blank sailings announced soon.
• For historical updates on the Red Sea situation, read more in Global Ocean Carriers Halt Red Sea Transits – What to Expect.

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Global air cargo tonnages increased in the last full week of February following the typical dip during the Lunar New Year (LNY), with significant surges in tonnages at key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs (Dubai, Colombo, Bangkok) due to disruptions in container shipping in the Red Sea.
• Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic in week 8 saw a more than double increase (+146%) compared to the same period last year, with recent weeks showing a +140% year-on-year (YoY) rise. Colombo-Europe and Bangkok-Europe also experienced significant YoY tonnage increases, indicating strong demand for air cargo as an alternative to disrupted sea routes.
• The sustained high demand for air cargo through these hubs into March is uncertain, but week 8 showed no signs of waning, contributing to a +9% week-on-week rise in global air cargo tonnages, partially recovering from previous drops during LNY.
• A broader two week comparison highlights the impact of LNY and Valentine’s Day on demand, with significant tonnage decreases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, but a notable rise from the Middle East & South Asia region. Global average prices fell by -6% due to these fluctuations, despite a price rise from the Middle East & South Asia.
• Year-on-year data reveals a -4% decrease in worldwide tonnages for weeks 7 and 8, with a significant drop ex-Asia Pacific but a notable increase ex-Middle East & South Asia. Average global rates remain above pre-COVID levels, though they have decreased compared to the previous year, with worldwide air cargo capacity significantly up (+8%).

[Ocean - FEWB]

• The Red Sea Crisis is continuously impacting freight market development. With most of the vessels routed via the Cape of Good Hope, carriers believe the supply will still be balanced with demand in a mid-run. The Lunar New Year (LNY) soft demand is temporary, however, equipment is in better shape (mainly because of LNY slow recovery). Carriers are also investigating the situation and re-routing back via the Suez Canal. More details to follow as information is made available.
• Demand remains flat post LNY. Carriers are further adjusting rates to cater fresh cargo in 1H March. PSS/Contingency Surcharges are still being upheld by carriers due to the reroute, however, more questions about the actual additional cost are being brought up and we expect there will be adjustments in March.
• Ocean Alliance continuously announced voided plans for March. With 2M’s Winter Program ending, carriers are actively investigating the demand & supply. If soft demand continues from Week 12 onwards, we expect there may be more blank sailings announced.
• To mitigate the disruption of operational challenges (sailing schedule adjustments, vessel downsizes, equipment shortages, rollover, etc.), shippers can consider premium services offered by liners with higher costs. This approach will help guarantee space and equipment and shorten delays.

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

来源于Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Strong Surge in Tonnages at Asia-Europe Sea-Air Hubs: Recent weeks have seen a notable increase in air cargo volumes at key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok, driven by shippers seeking alternatives to container shipping disruptions due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea. This surge is attributed to the need to replenish European stocks affected by longer container ship voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.
• Significant Year-on-Year Growth: Analysis highlights a year-on-year increase in air cargo tonnages to Europe from Dubai (+71%), Colombo (+61%), and Bangkok (+58%) in the first seven weeks of 2024, significantly outpacing growth at other hubs like Singapore and Doha.
• Impact of Lunar New Year Timing: The later occurrence of Lunar New Year (LNY) in 2024 complicates week-by-week comparisons but underscores a clear pattern of increased tonnages from these hubs to Europe. Despite this, the impact on pricing remains uncertain due to various factors, including market-wide declines from the previous year.
• Seasonal Demand Fluctuations: Post-LNY, a traditional decline in demand from Asia Pacific is observed, affecting global air cargo tonnages and rates. However, there’s a structural improvement in demand compared to the previous year, with specific regions like the Middle East & South Asia experiencing tonnage and rate increases, likely reflecting the shift from ocean freight to sea-air solutions.
• Global Air Cargo Trends: Overall, despite a slight year-on-year decrease in worldwide tonnages for weeks 6 and 7, structural improvements in demand levels are evident. Notably, worldwide air cargo capacity has increased, with significant rises from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia, indicating a robust recovery and adaptation within the air cargo industry to ongoing logistical challenges.

[Ocean – ISC to North America]

• Rates: Reduced down after the 2H February GRI. Carriers had initially posted a March 1st GRI of $1000/container, but as of this week have postponed it until 2H March. Without any changes to the market it is likely the GRI will be canceled entirely.
• Space: Vessels delayed getting to destination and back to origin are resulting in a lack of capacity. The short term disruption is expected to be more challenging, while longer term we expect some normalization due to new builds, faster vessel speeds, and implementation of idle capacity.
• Equipment: Although equipment availability is carrier-specific for each port of loading, the overall situation is challenging. This is especially true at inland container depots and smaller/less connected ports.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Red Sea: This remains unresolved as most vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-4 weeks of transit time (round trip). Vessel schedules will continue to fluctuate as a result, and regional equipment shortages will occur in some Asian ports.
• Demand: Demand has softened as expected after the LNY holiday. Bookings have slowed down in week 9; we expect them to pick up from week 11 onwards. As roll pools have been created in the past few weeks, vessel utilization is positive at the moment, and carriers are continuing to assess capacity and rates.
• Capacity: All alliances implemented massive blank sailings pre-LNY for weeks 8 and 9, which cut about 30+% of capacity on average. After the LNY holiday, Ocean Alliance announced two more void plans for March. If demand remains flat, there might be more blank sailings to be announced. Occasional space constraints due to smaller vessel deployment and schedule re-shuffling due to current re-routing will also impact the available capacity each week.
• Rate Development: As the Red Sea situation continues to impact capacity and equipment, carriers are upholding rates via GRI / PSS / Contingency Charges, however there’s pressure and questions about the amount of additional costs of re-routing via Cape of Good Hope. Expectations are that the Peak Season quantums will be mitigated or even be dropped in March. Rates are expected to go down as of March 1 and continue to decline going forward due to low demand.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• China’s Inbound Tonnage Decline: In the week leading up to the Lunar New Year, China experienced a significant drop in inbound air cargo tonnages by 15% week-over-week, contributing to a global tonnage fall of 12%. This was against a backdrop of only a 2% decline in China’s outbound tonnages, indicating a sharp contrast in trade dynamics as the holiday approached.
• Stable to Rising Average Global Rates: Despite the drop in tonnages, average global air cargo rates remained steady and even saw a slight increase during week 6, mirroring trends from the previous year. This suggests resilience in pricing amid fluctuating volumes.
• Intra-Asia Pacific Market Slowdown: A notable 17% fall in intra-Asia Pacific traffic largely drove a 3% global tonnage decline, highlighting the region’s quick response to the Lunar New Year compared to long-haul markets. Conversely, tonnages from Asia Pacific to certain regions like Central & South America increased, demonstrating varied market reactions.
• Year-on-Year Tonnage and Capacity Increase: Comparatively, weeks 5 and 6 saw a 10% increase in worldwide tonnages year-on-year, with significant rises from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia origins. This was accompanied by a substantial 16% increase in global air cargo capacity, indicating an overall growth in the air cargo sector from last year.
  Pricing Trends and Pre-Covid Comparison: Despite a year-on-year drop in average worldwide rates by 14%, the gap is narrowing, and rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (34% increase compared to February 2019), suggesting a sustained recovery and adaptation in the air cargo market post-pandemic.

[Ocean – ISC to North America]

• Rates: Increased due to 2H February General Rate Increases (GRIs), but as of week 8 are starting to mitigate. Overall levels still remain significantly inflated compared to November levels at +250% to United States East Coast (USEC) BP and +90% to United States West Coast (USWC) BP.
• Space: Vessels delayed in getting to destination and back to origin are resulting in a lack of capacity. The short-term disruption is expected to be more challenging, while longer term we expect some normalization due to new builds, faster vessel speeds, and implementation of idle capacity.
• Equipment: Although equipment availability is carrier-specific for each port of loading, the overall situation is challenging. This is especially true at inland container depots and smaller/less connected ports.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

来源于Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 从 2 月 1 日起，各种费率指数开始显示每 TEU 跳涨约 500 美元。这在意料之中，因为承运商推出了与红海局势有关的附加费（应急附加费、紧急附加费、PSS 等）。
• 由于欧洲大部分地区（主要是德国南部、波兰和地中海西部地区）的设备变得有限，预计 3 月份的费率将进一步上升。
• 尽管为了帮助应对红海局势，我们看到了空白航次和在其他贸易航线上重新部署的船只，但运力仍相对稳定。
• 巴拿马运河干旱问题对 1 月份过境集装箱船的影响同比微乎其微。

[美国出口］

• 内陆铁路货场和出口装货点的设备（EQ）水平越来越不稳定。请在货物就绪日期 (CRD) 前四周进行预订。如果无法做到这一点，请考虑在沿海港口装载卡车和转运货物，以避免持续的 EQ 问题。
• 如果货物在沿海港口装船，请提前 2-3 周或更多时间预订，以确保装船优化，避免空船，并确保设备及时到位。
• 对于跨大西洋东行航线，可提供从基地港到基地港的运力。

[航空 - 全球]（数据来源：WorldACD/埃森哲）

• 中国运费上涨：中国至北美和欧洲的航空货运费率在农历新年前一周分别飙升了 14% 和 8%，但仍低于 12 月初的峰值。
• 红海海运中断的影响：红海集装箱运输中断可能是导致运价飙升的原因之一，这促使一些从中国运往欧洲的海运货物转为海空联运。
• 运输需求强劲：尽管目前受到干扰和农历新年的季节性影响，但从中国到欧洲和北美的航空货运需求依然强劲。
• 全球需求和费率上升：受农历新年影响，全球航空货运需求和费率持续上升，在强劲的电子商务运输支持下，货运吨位同比大幅增加。
• 全年大幅增长：第 4 周和第 5 周的全球货运量与去年同期相比增长了 25%以上，其中亚太地区、中东和南亚的货运量大幅增长，部分原因是海运转为海空联运。
• 与 2019 年 2 月相比，房价走势超过 32%。

[拉美航空北上航线]

• 巴西纳韦甘特斯港正在进行土建工程，以便在 2024 年 1 月 5 日开始的未来两年内调整码头基础设施。工程将分两个阶段进行。在一侧施工的同时，另一侧将继续正常运营。工程将从东侧开始，当这一阶段完成后，工程将转移到西侧。
• 虽然该港口目前的运营没有受到限制，但在此期间，我们可能会看到通过 Navegantes 的所有服务都将面临运营挑战，等待时间也会增加。一些托运人可能会选择转到附近的港口（伊塔波阿港和巴拉那瓜港）。
• 达飞轮船公司宣布，他们的 BRASEX 服务将转至因比图巴。另一方面，地中海航运致力于为 Navegantes 以外的客户提供服务。地中海航运有两条从巴西出发的主要航线，并将优化这些航线，为 USEC、USGC 和 USWC/ CA 提供服务。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

本周新闻

墨西哥海关系统故障导致跨境货运严重延误
墨西哥国家海关总署 (ANAM) 计算机系统持续出现一系列故障，严重扰乱了美国边境的货物运输，并造成港口和机场的延误。这些故障持续数日，影响了该机构以电子方式处理进出口文件的能力，促使墨西哥国家海关总署以 "应急 "模式运行。

即将签署的印太贸易协定为美国供应链的优先事项增添了新的内容
印度-太平洋繁荣经济框架（IPEF）供应链协议将于2月24日生效，以加强太平洋贸易国之间的供应链弹性。该协议由美国、澳大利亚和日本等伙伴国签署，强调数据共享、港口附近的仓储以及政策最佳实践方面的合作，以建立具有弹性和包容性的供应链。

尽管前景黯淡，1 月份进口仍创下 7 年来最快增速
尽管地缘政治局势紧张，苏伊士运河和巴拿马运河面临挑战，但根据笛卡尔公司的数据，1月份美国进口出人意料地激增，比12月份增长7.9%，同比增长9.9%。中国农历新年前的进口热潮推动了这一增长，西海岸港口受益最大，长滩和洛杉矶的进口量大幅增加。

 

来源于Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[航空 - 全球]（数据来源：World ACD/Accenture）

• 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 28 日，全球国际航空货运能力比 2019 年增长了 10%。
• 在过去四周里，全球国际航空货运能力比前四周下降了 4%。
• 预计今年春节前后中国大陆和香港的航空货运量将下降 30%-40%，与往年持平。
• 尽管 2024 年 1 月的平均收益率仍低于 2023 年 1 月，但由于红海危机和农历新年的预期，跨太平洋和亚欧航线的收益率在 1 月的最后几周有所上升。
• 近几个月来，航空货运量持续上升，主要原因是自去年第四季度以来，亚太地区的电子商务活动强劲，同时，由于最近红海集装箱航运业务受到干扰，一些货物明显从海运转向空运和海空联运。

[美国出口］

• 内陆铁路货场和出口装货点的设备数量减少，或越来越少。建议客户在货物备妥日期（CRD）前 3-4 周进行预订。如果无法做到这一点，可考虑用卡车和转运方式在沿海港口装货，以避免持续的设备问题。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 亚洲-北欧：红海危机继续影响货运市场的发展。达飞轮船公司因安全风险再次暂停红海转运，直至另行通知。
• 由于返回亚洲的船只延误，农历新年出发前的设备越来越紧张。大多数承运商正在安排集装箱重新定位，以便按计划运输货物。我们强烈建议托运人采取灵活态度，接受集装箱替换，以避免进一步延误，并尽早安排空箱提货。承运商正在提供更长的起运时间，以减轻农历新年的影响。
• 预计二月下半月的需求将保持平稳。承运商正在进一步下调运价，以迎合二月上半月的新货需求，为二月下半月的滚装船做准备。尽管已经宣布了大量的空船计划（WK08/09 平均削减 30%），但海洋联盟又宣布了 7 个空船计划，其中 3 个计划在 2 月启航，其余在 3 月启航。我们预计其他两个联盟也将很快公布更多的空置计划。
• 为减轻运营挑战（船期调整、船舶缩减、设备短缺、滚装等）带来的干扰，托运人可以探索班轮公司以较高成本提供的溢价服务，以获得有保障的舱位和设备，缩短延误时间。
• 亚洲-地中海：继北欧之后，地中海的浮动运价仍然偏高。从第 06 周开始，浮动运价呈小幅下降趋势，原因是要在农历新年前让更多的货物装满船，同时，由于亚洲需求疲软和假期，也要为 2 月下半月以后的滚装做准备。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美地区船舶停留时间

 

 

来源于Flexport.com