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Talking Tariffs

• U.S.-China Tariff Developments: In an October 10 Truth Social post, President Trump stated that he intends to impose a 100% tariff on China beginning November 1, “over and above any tariff that they are currently paying.” President Trump also indicated plans to impose export controls on critical software. These measures await official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
  • Just two days after his initial post, President Trump appeared to soften his stance in a follow-up Truth Social post: “Don’t worry about China … Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.”
  • At an October 15 news conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a potential extension of the 90-day U.S.-China tariff truce, which is set to expire on November 10. If President Trump proceeds with implementing a 100% tariff on China on November 1, however, the two nations will face a tighter timeline for reaching an agreement. According to Bessent, a deciding factor is whether China delays or scraps upcoming export controls on rare earth metals, which remain a long-standing point of contention in U.S.-China trade talks.
  • It is currently unclear whether President Trump and President Xi will meet as planned at South Korea’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum at the end of October. While President Trump stated on October 10 that “there seems to be no reason” to proceed with the meeting, Bessent indicated a few days later that these plans are still in place.
  • According to a recent U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) notice, the U.S. will impose a 100% duty on certain Chinese ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling equipment on November 9.
• U.S.-China Vessel Fee Developments: On October 14, the U.S. implemented port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels. On the same day, China implemented countermeasures on American vessels calling at Chinese ports.
  • Chinese vessel owners and operators calling at a U.S. port now face a fee of $50 per net ton, while Chinese-built ships are subject to the greater of an $18 per net ton fee or a $120 per container fee. These fees will increase over time, in line with a set schedule. Check out our blog for more, including scheduled fee increases and potential exemptions.
  • Per USTR guidance, the burden is on the vessel operator—not U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—to determine whether their vessel owes a fee. The USTR also indicated that vessels subject to fee modifications, including Liquified Gas Carriers and roll-on/roll-off vessels, may defer fee payments until December 10.
  • Chinese countermeasures: Any vessel owned, operated, or built in the U.S. faces a fee of CN¥400 (~$56) per net ton when berthing at a Chinese port. These retaliatory fees are set to increase in line with the U.S.’s fee schedule.
• U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: The shutdown recently entered its third week. CBP has confirmed on trade calls that the flow of cargo and passengers continues as normal, and CBP’s budget and staff are unaffected by the shutdown. CBP has confirmed that it will not issue any refunds during the shutdown, including any ACH or check refunds, drawback claim payments, protests, post-summary corrections, or any other payment involving a check from the Treasury Department. For the latest shutdown impacts on CBP and other federal agencies, check out our blog.
• Other Recent Updates:
  • A series of new duties took effect on October 14: 10% on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on certain upholstered furniture (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.), and 25% on certain kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.). On January 1, 2026, countries without a trade agreement in place with the U.S. will see cabinet and vanity tariffs increase to 50%, and upholstered furniture tariffs to 30%.
  • On October 14, President Trump suggested potential new tariffs on Spain, citing its refusal to comply with the 5%-of-GDP defense spending target for NATO members. A day later, the European Commission indicated that the EU will “respond appropriately … to any measures taken against one or more of our member states.”
  • Find the latest tariff and trade developments on our live blog.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity is holding at 60-70% through the end of October, and is scheduled to recover to over 80% for November.
  • Overall, demand remains flat. Carriers are monitoring the response to the recently proposed tariffs on China, but have yet to observe any changes to booking profiles.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers have announced an October 15 General Rate Increase (GRI). Early indications are that the GRI is holding.
  • Carriers have postponed the PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) to November, given flat demand and the overall market outlook.
  • The first Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) update after Golden Week showed a slight upward movement, signaling a potential market turnaround.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The post-Golden-Week capacity void remains moderate, with a ~10% weekly capacity cut through Week 44.
  • Rolled shipments due to blank sailings from the Golden Week period are taking up sailing space for the second half of October.
  • Congestion in Antwerp and Rotterdam, especially at the Rotterdam World Gateway terminal under the Premier Alliance, has led to berth wait times exceeding 300 hours. Strikes in Belgium and the Netherlands may worsen congestion in the coming weeks.
  • Demand after Golden Week is recovering slowly. Carriers plan to tighten allocation management from late October to November.
• Strike Impacts:
  • Belgium: On October 6, maritime pilots at Belgium’s major ports—Antwerp, Zeebrugge, and Ghent—launched a strike to protest federal pension reforms. The strike has been temporarily suspended until October 24.
  • Netherlands: On October 8, lashers at the Port of Rotterdam went on strike, demanding a 6.5% wage increase and inflation compensation. A court ruling required workers to halt the strike on weekdays, with partial port operations estimated to resume on October 17. However, it may take until the end of October to clear the cargo backlog.
  • Overall impact: The strikes across Belgium and the Netherlands have put pressure on Europe’s main trade corridors. Supply chain delays are affecting Germany, France, and Central Europe, increasing costs and extending transit times. Despite temporary strike suspensions, port congestion and scheduling delays continue. It will likely take several weeks for transport operations to normalize.
• Freight Rates:
  • The first Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) update after Golden Week showed a slight upward movement, signaling a potential market turnaround.
  • Major carriers have raised their Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for the second half of October and officially announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for November.
  • Ongoing congestion at destination ports may affect vessel turnaround efficiency, potentially leading to more blank sailings and equipment shortages in early November. These operational factors are likely driving carriers to implement their planned rate increases for November.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp: The pilots’ strike has been temporarily suspended. Yard utilization is at 90%, with berth delays of two to four days.
  • Rotterdam: A recent port lasher strike has disrupted container operations. Yard utilization is at 70-83%, with berth delays of two to eight days.
  • Hamburg: Yard utilization is at 75%, with berth delays of five to seven days.
  • Bremerhaven: Yard utilization is at 75-85%, with berth delays of one to three days.
  • South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Significant yard congestion persists. Vessel wait times remain at three to seven days.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment challenges in Europe this month persist, with ongoing container and chassis shortages concentrated in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal. These shortages are contributing to ongoing operational challenges.
• Freight Rates:
  • As of October 13, spot rates remain subdued, hovering around $1,800 to $1,900/FEU. This reflects an ongoing environment of soft demand and moderate vessel and equipment availability on the route.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • In general, routes from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. remain status quo compared to previous weeks. The India-specific tariff escalation in August continues to keep demand soft, and we continue to see capacity management as a result.
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast: Supply continues to outstrip demand, resulting in blank sailings throughout the month of October.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains widely available, given oversupply on the TPEB into the U.S. West Coast. Capacity management is increasing as services that connect to the U.S. remain soft across Asia.
• Freight Rates:
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: Market rate levels continue to hold steady. Carriers are continuing to enact capacity management strategies, driving more balanced supply in the market.
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: Recent tariff increases and oversupply on core TPEB lanes continue to keep rate levels low.

空运

• North China:
  • The China-U.S. air freight market remains under significant pressure, with no indications that it will ease in the near term. Despite earlier expectations for post-holiday stabilization, capacity remains constrained as strong demand from the technology and ecommerce sectors absorbs nearly all available space. Current conditions are expected to persist in the coming weeks.
  • Space availability remains limited across major U.S. gateways. West Coast destinations continue to see steady volumes, with rates likely to hold firm or edge higher. On the East Coast, demand continues to outpace supply, resulting in more pronounced capacity challenges and driving further upward pressure on rates. These constraints are unlikely to improve in the short term.
  • Recent discussions surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are further straining the already-limited market and driving a short-term surge in demand. Even though implementation remains uncertain, the announcement has prompted many importers to expedite shipments to secure space ahead of the proposed implementation date of November 1.
  • Overall, market conditions are expected to remain firm through late October. Elevated demand and restricted capacity are likely to keep rates high until additional lift becomes available or shipment volumes ease. Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead, book early, and remain flexible with routings to minimize potential disruptions.
• South China:
  • Following the conclusion of China’s Golden Week, overall market capacity has largely returned to normal as carriers resume regular flight schedules. Despite this stabilization, recent U.S.-China tariff developments have driven a sharp increase in air freight rates. Demand from the ecommerce sector remains particularly strong, and continues to take up a significant share of available capacity.
  • As a result, the market is experiencing heightened booking activity throughout October, placing continued pressure on available space. Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead and secure bookings at least five days in advance to ensure access to capacity and mitigate potential rate fluctuations.
• Vietnam:
  • Market demand has strengthened following the end of Golden Week, with several carriers reporting full bookings from key origin points through mid-October.
  • Capacity on major Trans-Pacific routes remains constrained, particularly on services to primary North American gateways. Tight space conditions are expected to persist in the near term as strong demand continues to exceed available capacity.
• South Korea:
  • Air freight demand from South Korea rose sharply ahead of the recent national holiday, putting temporary pressure on Trans-Pacific lanes. Market conditions are expected to normalize by mid-October as operations stabilize.
  • The FEWB market remains generally negotiable on rates, although capacity to certain European destinations is currently limited.
• Malaysia:
  • Outbound volumes from Malaysia have continued to increase since the end of September. However, demand on Trans-Pacific routes has shown signs of easing, with carriers reporting moderate booking activity for early October.
  • Capacity on the FEWB lane remains under pressure. On routes to key European gateways in particular, we expect limited space through the third week of October.
  • To avoid potential delays, shippers are encouraged to secure bookings at least seven days in advance.
• Indonesia:
  • Air freight markets ex-Indonesia remain stable, with consistent service levels and steady rates across major routes. Trans-Pacific lanes continue to perform reliably, while congestion at transshipment hubs is driving some space constraints on FEWB lanes.
  • Exporters are advised to place bookings approximately seven days in advance to ensure capacity access to key European destinations.
• Thailand:
  • Air freight demand from Bangkok continues to show a gradual increase, resulting in tighter capacity on key routes to major destinations in the United States and Europe. While rate levels remain stable compared to the previous week, growing local demand is putting additional pressure on available space.
  • Given increasingly limited capacity on these primary trade lanes, shippers are encouraged to plan shipments early—ideally five to seven days in advance—to secure uplift and minimize the risk of delays.

(Source: Flexport)

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit times from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast remained near-constant, while transit time from China to North Europe decreased.

Week to October 13, 2025

This week, transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant again, increasing from 32 to 32.3 days. Transit time from China to the U.S. East Coast also saw a slight increase, rising from 53.7 to 54 days. Meanwhile, transit time from China to North Europe dropped by 2 days, from 54.9 to 52.9 days.

 

值得关注的趋势

Talking Tariffs

• President Trump Announces Upcoming Tariffs on Trucks: In an October 6 Truth Social post, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks on November 1. Its implementation awaits official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
  • President Trump had previously indicated that tariffs on heavy trucks would take effect on October 1, but did not provide any further details on implementation by that date.
  • Currently, completed vehicles and vehicle parts for passenger and light trucks are subject to Section 232 duties. Until now, heavy trucks and parts have been exempt.
  • USMCA exemptions: For medium- and heavy-duty trucks that fall under the USMCA, it is currently unclear whether these tariffs would apply only to trucks’ non-U.S. content, as is the case with USMCA-compliant automobiles. In general, to qualify for partial duty relief under USMCA rules of origin, the following content must originate from North America: at least 64% of the truck’s value; at least 75% of its engines, axles, transmissions, and other core components; and at least 70% of the manufacturer’s annual steel and aluminum procurement.
  • If these tariffs take effect, USMCA partners would bear the brunt of the impact: Mexico supplied about 74% of the $20.9 billion’s worth of medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. last year. Canada was the second-largest source, supplying just over 20% of these imports.
• Upcoming Fees on Chinese Vessels: Fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels will take effect on October 14.
  • Chinese vessel owners and operators calling at a U.S. port will face a fee of $50 per net ton. Chinese-built ships will be subject to a fee of $18 per net ton or $120 per container, whichever is higher. Visit our blog for a detailed fee breakdown, including scheduled increases and potential exemptions.
  • Per recently issued guidance from the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the vessel operator must determine whether their vessel owes a fee, rather than U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Fees will be paid directly to the Department of the Treasury, not at the port of entry, and should be paid at least three business days before vessel arrival to ensure lading/unlading and clearance.
• U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: On an October 6 trade outreach call, CBP confirmed that it will not issue any refunds during the government shutdown. This includes both ACH and check refunds, as well as drawback claim payments, protests, post-summary corrections, and any other payment involving a check from the Treasury Department.
  • For protests that have already been approved, importers do not need to take any further action during the shutdown.
  • In the meantime, CBP will continue to process duty refunds, entry summaries, protests, and liquidations. The shutdown does not impact any liquidation dates.
  • CBP is continuing to collect tariff revenue throughout the shutdown. CBP will also implement all upcoming tariffs as planned, including those set to take effect on October 14.
  • While CBP and the USTR are exempt from furloughs, the International Trade Administration—the agency responsible for reviewing antidumping and countervailing duty (ADCVD) cases—has furloughed the majority of its employees. As a result, ADCVD investigations have slowed considerably.
  • For detailed impacts on federal agencies and duty refunds, check out our blog.
• Other Recent Updates:
  • The following duties will take effect on October 14: 10% on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on certain upholstered furniture (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.), and 25% on certain kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.). On January 1, 2026, countries without a trade agreement in place with the U.S. will see cabinet and vanity tariffs increase to 50%, and upholstered furniture tariffs to 30%.
  • If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement by the November 10 deadline, tariffs on Chinese goods will rise to a combined 54%. President Trump and President Xi are due to meet in person near the end of October, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will continue talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng sometime before November 10.
  • President Trump also recently announced plans to impose “substantial tariffs on any country that does not make its furniture in the United States,” a 100% tariff on movies made outside the U.S., and a tariff of up to 100% on branded or patented pharmaceuticals. He did not provide an implementation timeline for any of these suggested tariffs.
  • Find the latest tariff and trade developments on our live blog.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Blank sailings in Weeks 41 and 42 are a direct, planned response to the Golden Week holiday in Asia, and will result in a significant capacity reduction to 62-69% of planned.
  • Capacity is expected to bounce back to 83% in Week 43, which is expected to result in an oversupply situation as demand remains low-to-flat.
• Freight Rates:
  • Ocean carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) for October 15 to curb the rate drops. The next Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is expected on October 10.
  • Carriers have postponed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to November 1, given the weak outlook for the floating market.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The market remains flat due to recent holidays in China. Liners prepared roll pools by overbooking by 20-50% before the holidays to optimize vessel utilization, in case demand is slow to recover like in previous years.
  • Capacity-wise, the existing blank sailing program for October will continue to impact supply, with a 10% weekly capacity cut in Weeks 42 and 43. Carriers have announced a blank sailing program that will primarily take place in the first half of November (-20% in Week 45 and -4% in Week 46). If the market reacts reluctantly to rate increases in the second half of October, carriers are expected to announce more blank sailings.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is frozen this week due to China’s Golden Week holiday. The next index update will be released on October 10.
  • Carriers have announced their first round of General Rate Increases (GRIs) for the second half of October to prevent freight volumes from dropping further.
  • Currently, there is little indication in the market that bookings will increase. If the increase in the second half of October is not implemented, we expect another round in the first half of November, along with more blank sailing announcements.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp: Yard utilization is at 90%, with berth delays of two to four days.
  • Rotterdam: Yard utilization is at 70-83%, with berth delays of two to eight days.
  • Hamburg: Yard utilization is at 75%, with berth delays of five to seven days.
  • Bremerhaven: Yard utilization is at 75-85%, with berth delays of one to three days.
  • South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Ports continue to see significant yard congestion, with vessel wait times of three to seven days.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment challenges in Europe this month persist, with ongoing container and chassis shortages concentrated in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal.
• Freight Rates:
  • As of early October, spot rates have stabilized around $1,800 to $1,900/FEU.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast: August’s tariff escalation continues to drive soft demand from India. Supply continues to outstrip demand, resulting in full capacity management into October for Indian-subcontinent-specific services.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains widely available after a short-lived uptick. Capacity management is increasing on the corridor connecting the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. West Coast as demand across Asia remains soft.
• Freight Rates:
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: Following further decreases resulting from August’s tariff escalation, rate levels are holding steady. Carriers are enacting capacity management strategies and driving more balanced supply in the market.
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: Recent tariff increases and oversupply on core TPEB lanes continue to keep rate levels low.

空运

• North China:
  • A series of flight cancellations during China’s national holiday period has reduced available air freight capacity, resulting in continued upward pressure on rates.
  • Demand remains strong across key sectors, particularly electronics and ecommerce, driving sustained volumes to major U.S. gateways like Chicago (ORD) and New York (JFK).
  • Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to begin stabilizing around October 10, as flight schedules normalize and capacity returns to regular levels following the holiday period.
• South China:
  • Overall, air freight demand has strengthened compared to the previous week, supported by traditional cargo movements ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday.
  • Capacity remains constrained across key origins due to a temporary reduction in flight frequency during the holiday period, particularly out of Southern China. This is continuing to drive upward pressure on space availability.
  • On Trans-Pacific routes, shipments to major U.S. gateways are experiencing tight capacity conditions. Meanwhile, on Europe‑bound services, the market is seeing modest recovery, despite relatively soft overall demand.
  • Flight operations on most westbound routes are expected to continue without major disruption through the holiday. We anticipate a gradual normalization of schedules from mid‑October onwards as additional capacity returns to the market.
• Vietnam:
  • Air freight demand remains elevated nationwide. Particularly strong volumes out of Hanoi continue to limit available capacity on both Trans-Pacific and westbound trade lanes.
  • Market conditions are tighter than in recent weeks, and advance bookings are required to secure space. In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City remains relatively stable, though some shipments may still experience extended transit time due to connection dependencies. Shippers are advised to maintain flexibility in scheduling and plan shipments well in advance during this high‑demand period.
• Cambodia:
  • In Cambodia, air freight capacity remains under pressure amid strong export activity and limited available space. Factories continue to move backlog cargo from recent weeks, contributing to ongoing tight conditions.
  • Booking in advance—ideally several days to a week prior to departure—remains essential to secure uplift. Market conditions are expected to gradually improve as backlog volumes clear and flight schedules return to normal levels.
• South Korea:
  • The air freight market continues to experience congestion following the end‑of‑month surge, leading to backlogs that are likely to persist into October.
  • Demand remains steady across major trade lanes. Shippers should anticipate longer transit times while capacity clears in the coming weeks.
• Malaysia:
  • Air freight volumes from Malaysia are trending upward on Europe‑bound routes, supported by stronger export activity. Capacity remains tight on these lanes as some carriers report limited space through mid‑October, contributing to ongoing booking challenges into key European gateways. Conversely, Trans-Pacific volumes have slightly softened, with lighter booking activity noted for early October.
  • Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead and confirm bookings in advance to minimize the risk of delays during this period of uneven capacity.
• Thailand:
  • Air freight demand from Bangkok is seeing a modest increase, leading to tighter capacity on major lanes to the United States and Europe. While market levels remain generally stable week over week, securing uplift has become more challenging as volumes rise.
  • Shippers are advised to book shipments well in advance—ideally five to seven days ahead—to ensure space availability during this period of increasing demand.

(Source: Flexport)

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant, while transit times on the China to U.S. East Coast and China to North Europe routes both declined.

Week to October 6, 2025

This week, transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant, dropping just 0.2 days from 32 to 31.8 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast decreased significantly, falling from 58.3 to 51.5 days. Transit time from China to North Europe also declined, dropping by 3.4 days from 59 to 55.6 days.

 

值得关注的趋势

Talking Tariffs

• U.S. and Japan Reach Trade Deal: On July 22, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement.
  • Under the proposed trade deal, Japan will face a 15% reciprocal tariff; invest $550 billion into the United States, which will receive 90% of the profits; and “open their country to trade, including cars and trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural products.”
  • The proposed 15% reciprocal duty on Japanese imports walks back the previously proposed 25% tariff on Japan that President Trump had announced on Truth Social on July 7.
  • The trade deal will also reduce auto tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%. Last year, more than a third of Japanese goods imported into the U.S. consisted of automobiles and auto parts.
  • The deal is expected to take effect on August 1, alongside reciprocal duties announced for more than two dozen other U.S. trade partners. All await official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
• U.S. and Philippines Reach Trade Deal: On July 22, President Trump announced that the U.S. and the Philippines have also reached a trade agreement. Under the proposed deal, the Philippines will face a 19% reciprocal tariff—a small reduction from the 20% duty President Trump had previously announced. Exactly when and how the trade agreement will be implemented is currently unclear.
• U.S. Lays Out Terms of Trade Deal with Indonesia: On July 22, the U.S. and Indonesia released a joint statement detailing the terms of the trade agreement announced last week.
  • Indonesian goods imported into the U.S. will face a 19% reciprocal tariff, while U.S. goods imported into Indonesia will not be subject to any tariffs.
  • Indonesia will address certain non-tariff barriers by eliminating taxes on digital services (like internet data and streaming), pre-shipment inspections of American agricultural goods, export controls on critical minerals, and more. Indonesia will also accept U.S. federal motor vehicle safety and emissions standards for autos exported from the U.S.
  • It is currently unclear when these terms will take effect. According to the joint statement, the two nations will “negotiate and finalize the agreement … in the coming weeks.”
• Other Tariff Developments:
  • Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the existing 30% effective duty rate on China is likely to extend beyond August 12. In the meantime, negotiations will likely involve China’s ongoing imports of “sanctioned” Russian and Iranian oil.
  • U.S.-India trade talks are in progress. In particular, India seeks to reduce the 26% reciprocal duty announced on Liberation Day, the 50% duty on steel and aluminum, and auto tariffs.
  • A 50% tariff on copper imports, which President Trump announced earlier this month, is set to take effect on August 1.
  • Over the past few weeks, President Trump has announced his proposed reciprocal tariff rates for more than two dozen trade partners. For a full list of these rates, check out our live blog.
  • Other potential duties President Trump has recently suggested include a 10% tariff on BRICS countries and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Market demand in August is expected to remain similar to July levels.
  • Overall carrier capacity deployment for July is 80%-90%, with a slight decrease to 75%-86% in August. Despite some service suspensions to the Pacific Southwest (PSW) and ad hoc blank sailings, the market is experiencing ongoing overcapacity compared to demand. Overall, space is open.
  • Services originating in Southeast Asian ports are experiencing some delays due to continued congestion in Malaysia and Singapore. Expect three to five days of additional transit time, versus proforma.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages and weather disruptions, including typhoons in South China and Southeast Asia, are further challenging schedule reliability at origin.
• Freight Rates:
  • The East Coast Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) will be removed for August.
  • For the West Coast, there continues to be no PSSs for any gateway into August.
  • Several carriers have announced an August 1 General Rate Increase (GRI). These rates are expected to be finalized closer to August, as demand solidifies.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Six blank sailings have been announced for August, all from the Ocean Alliance.
  • Average weekly capacity in August has reached 324,000 TEUs, increasing 1.4% month over month.
  • Due to EU port congestion in July delaying vessel returns and disrupting schedules, both Maersk and MSC are deploying smaller vessels on several services in August to maintain weekly departures, and to avoid skipping sailings.
  • European economic recovery is supporting strong demand, which is expected to continue in August.
  • Equipment shortages and weather disruptions, including typhoons in South China and Southeast Asia, are further challenging schedule reliability at origin.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has been stable at $2,030–$2,100/TEU over the past four weeks.
  • Rates may stay at elevated levels or even increase, in light of supply constraints and strong demand expected to continue in August. Rate increases are also being driven by tight space and equipment at origin, along with congestion and customs delays at key European ports.
  • To test the market, some carriers have already increased August offers by 10%.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp is experiencing its worst congestion since Covid-19, with dwell times exceeding eight days and yard usage above 90%.
  • Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven are seeing 80-85% yard utilization, resulting in vessel delays of two to four days.
  • Piraeus, Genoa, and Valencia report ongoing yard overcrowding and vessel wait times of two to five days, consistent with prior trends.
  • Export demand from Europe remains consistent.
  • The proposed 30% tariff on Europe, set for August 1, is contributing to ongoing uncertainty for businesses engaged in trade with the U.S.
  • Demand is decreasing due to summer holidays.
  • The blank sailing rate is currently around 4–7%, dropping month over month. Capacity is stable.
• Equipment: Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany continue to face container and chassis shortages. Portugal is also experiencing container imbalance issues.
• Freight Rates: In Northern Europe, West Mediterranean, and East Mediterranean, all carriers have postponed implementing PSSs announced for July. Rates are expected to remain stable until the end of Q3.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast has increased, with July kicking off the Indian subcontinent’s traditional peak season. One carrier is adding vessels back to their Northeast India to U.S. East Coast service, but temporarily omitting Charleston for enhanced service reliability.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast is available again, given the sharp increase of capacity in the TPEB market and services that enable Indian subcontinent shippers to deliver cargo to the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • For cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: GRIs and PSSs have been announced for the second half of July, but in general, those increases have not been implemented. Based on what carriers are seeing, there appears to be a large spread in the market across booking intakes and utilization. There may be a lack of typical peak season demand to support the rate increases, especially in light of capacity reinjected into the Indian subcontinent to U.S. East Coast trade.
  • For Indian subcontinent cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: GRIs did not stick in the market and PSSs have come down, in line with TPEB lanes.
  • Exports from Pakistan continue to see elevated cost and transit times due to additional feeder services needed to service the country in light of the India-Pakistan conflict.

空运

WEEK 28: JULY 7 – JULY 13, 2025

• Asia-U.S. Demand Drops Again: Tonnages fell -5% WoW after a -2% dip last week, led by Southeast Asia (including Indonesia -23%, Thailand -21%, Vietnam -14%), as U.S. demand remains soft post-holiday.
• Rates Hold Firm on North America Rebound: Despite lower global volumes, spot rates rose +1% WoW to $2.65/kg, driven by a +6% bounce in U.S.-origin tonnages and pricing after the July 4 dip.
• Middle East and South Asia (MESA) Hit by Conflict and Customs Issues: Tonnages were down -3% WoW, and spot rates were down -4%. Bangladesh volumes fell -4% overall, but rose +4% to the U.S. ahead of expected August 1 tariffs. India and Sri Lanka also declined.
• Asia-Europe Stable amid U.S. Softness: Asia-Europe tonnages held at +1% WoW, lifted by South Korea (+7%) and Malaysia (+5%). Meanwhile, Japan-U.S. rates dropped -20%, weighing on Asia-U.S. yields.

(Source: WorldACD)

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

值得关注的趋势

关税讨论

• 距离 2025 年 4 月 2 日--美国总统唐纳德-特朗普重申新的互惠关税生效的日期--只有不到两周的时间了。
• 据美国财政部长斯科特-贝森特（Scott Bessent）称，当天，特朗普将给每个贸易伙伴一个对等的关税 "数字"，这个数字代表了他们的关税、非关税贸易壁垒、货币惯例和其他因素。
• 与此同时，加拿大和墨西哥的商品将继续有资格享受微量优惠待遇，直到 "充分、迅速地处理和征收关税收入的适当制度到位 "为止。
• 关注我们的实时博客，了解最新进展。

海洋：跨太平洋东行航线 (TPEB) 最新情况

• 产能与需求：三月份的需求一直停滞不前，自春节过后就没有增长。预测需求未达预期，或未如期实现。运力：航运运力保持健康，3 月下旬至 4 月的部署率一直保持在 80% 以上。
• 设备：大多数原产地网关都有充足的设备供应，预计不会出现重大短缺。
• 运费率：浮动市场运价：本周浮动市场运价有所放缓，运价稳定在当前水平。四月总运价上调和运价稳定：承运商已宣布 4 月份的总运价上调（GRI）。取消旺季附加费：大多数承运商已取消了 3 月份剩余时间的旺季附加费 (PSS)。

海洋：远东西行（FEWB）最新情况

• 运力和需求：3 月下半月的运力保持稳定，没有宣布 4 月份增加空白航次，但荷兰鹿特丹的持续拥堵造成了一些滚动情况。为减轻港口拥堵的影响，将在始发地管理转运安排。需求略有回升，随着抵达前服务船舶规模的缩小，市场正朝着供需更加平衡的方向发展。新的订舱空间总体上仍然可用，订舱放行流程运行顺利，但仍可能出现滚动问题。
• 设备：设备供应充足，但承运商偶尔会用 40 英尺集装箱代替 40 高立方集装箱，后者在鹿特丹卸货时受到限制。如果设备交换收据（EIR）上指定的是 40HW 集装箱，我们建议要求堆场将其换成一个空的 40 英尺或 40 高立方体集装箱，并准备好装载货物。
• 运费率：上海集装箱运价指数（SCFI）的下降是由于 3 月份 GRI 的回调导致运价稳定。目前，市场焦点已转向 4 月份的运价指数，主要承运商宣布上调运价，而其他承运商则在等待评估市场状况。4 月份 GRI 能否成功实施仍不确定，主要取决于 3 月下半月的市场交易量。Flexport 建议在可能的涨价之前转移货物，因为承运商的目标是维持定价底线。

海洋：跨大西洋西行航线 (TAWB) 最新情况

• 运力和需求：空白航班已经减少，我们预计三月份的运力将更加稳定。这些空白航次主要集中在南欧航线。比雷埃夫斯港、梅尔辛港和巴伦西亚港出现拥堵，导致航班延误。
• 设备：中欧部分地区，特别是奥地利、斯洛伐克、瑞士、匈牙利和德国南部/东部地区，设备仍然短缺。建议这些产地使用承运人运输。在南欧，港口目前尚未遇到任何设备问题。
• 运费率：大多数承运商取消了北欧 PSS 的实施，因为他们预计 4 月份的需求将与南欧持平。在地中海，一些承运商正在推动 4 月份实施 PSS，重点是西地中海。由于需求持续高涨和超额使用，每个 40 英尺集装箱的附加费在 700-1000 美元之间。

空运最新情况（2025 年 3 月 3 日至 3 月 9 日，第 10 周）：

• 市场总体稳定，但同比有所增长：全球航空货运需求保持稳定，但在第 10 周同比增长了 2%。在第 9 周和第 10 周，总吨位同比增长了 4%，其中亚太地区的货运量增长了 8%，部分原因是受到农历新年时间的影响。
• 亚太地区的复苏推动了区域趋势：亚太地区计费重量环比反弹 +5%，恢复到 1 月中旬的水平。从亚太地区运往欧洲的吨位环比增长了 4%，其中中国（+5%）、香港（+6%）、日本（+7%）、台湾（+7%）、泰国（+9%）和新加坡（+9%）增长强劲。亚太地区至欧洲的现货运价环比下降-3%，但由于主要市场的强劲增长（如中国+14%、香港+22%、泰国+38%），同比仍增长+20%。
• 运价呈环比上升趋势，但短期内涨跌不一：第 9 周和第 10 周，全球平均空运费率环比增长 5%，同比增长 1%，达到每公斤 2.33 美元。在全球范围内，现货运价稳定在每公斤 2.55 美元，但环比上涨了 8%（亚太地区现货运价环比上涨了 11%）。从中国和香港到美国的现货价格保持稳定，为 3.78 美元/公斤（湿重）。
• 中东和南亚（MESA）以及迪拜的需求下降：中东和南亚（MESA）至欧洲的运价稳定在 2.42 美元/千克，但需求环比下降了-4%，这可能与斋月有关。迪拜至欧洲的货运量下降了 -15%，而前一周则下降了 -17%。因此，第 10 周的现货价格下跌了 -12%，为 1.88 美元/千克。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，中国至美国东海岸的 Flexport OTI 上升，中国至美国西海岸和中国至北欧的 Flexport OTI 下降。

Week to March 17, 2025

本周，中国至美国西海岸的海洋适时指数（OTI）从44.5天降至40天。中国至北欧也出现下降，从 73 天降至 71.5 天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸从 62.5 天增加到 63 天。

 

值得关注的趋势

[关税更新］

• 从本周三开始，25% 的关税将打击所有钢铝进口产品，包括第 73 章和第 76 章之外的衍生产品，无论其是否符合 USMCA 或其他自贸协定（如韩国自由贸易协定）。
• 本周二，美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大钢铁和铝征收 50%的高额关税，但仅仅几个小时后，特朗普就改变了这一决定。作为报复，加拿大和欧洲迅速宣布了各自的反制措施。
• 关注我们的实时博客，了解最新进展。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 产能和市场：需求平平：三月份的需求仍然停滞不前，自春节过后没有出现增长。运力：船运能力已恢复到接近完全恢复的水平（几乎达到 100%）。
• 利率趋势：浮动利率下降：市场利率继续稳步下降：固定费率和浮动费率之间的差距正在缩小，原因是浮动费率下降和运力充裕：多家承运商正在降低或取消旺季附加费 (PSS)。
• 设备：大多数原产地网关都有充足的设备供应，预计不会出现严重短缺。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 运力展望：本周，运力变化极小，没有宣布 4 月份新的空白航次。地中海航运缩减了 FEWB 主力船队 Lion 号的船只，每周运力减少了 5 千标准箱。不过，主要来自 HPL 的新船队部分抵消了这一影响。总体而言，3 月份的运力变化有限。
• 宣布四月全面费率上调：MSK 率先宣布 4 月份全面上调费率（GRI），标志着新一轮费率上调的开始。然而，此次全面加息能否成功取决于 3 月底的市场趋势。
• 从历史上看，全球运价指数预示着潜在的长期成本上升，促使托运人提前发货并推高运价。然而，从目前的需求趋势来看，货运增长势头可能不足，如果需求在 3 月中旬没有回升，则可能不会实施 GRI，这与本月的情况类似。
• 预订行为建议：自 2 月下旬以来，3 月份的 GRI 已被取消，延长了市场价格较低的时期。亚洲方面，工厂已全面开工，生产也已步入正轨。虽然 2 月份需求疲软，但目前市场并没有出现真正的需求短缺。物流方面的挑战正在减缓运输速度，一旦目的地的库存水平得到解决，我们预计出口需求将激增。目的地港口的拥堵正在造成延误，加速库存减少。如果库存水平很快达到临界点，市场就有可能反弹。我们建议尽早转移货物，以利用当前的低费率窗口期，缓解潜在的费率上涨。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 运力/需求：空白航次正在减少，导致三月份的运力更加稳定，尤其是南欧航线（东地中海）。北欧和南欧大多数航空公司的利用率都很高，有些甚至达到了 100%。这表明需求增加，尤其是在北欧。
• 比率：北欧的 PSS 实施情况参差不齐。一些承运商在 3 月份实施了减轻的 PSS，而大多数承运商则将其推迟到 4 月份，其中一些承运商目前正在考虑取消 4 月份的 PSS。在地中海，一些承运商计划在 4 月实施 PSS，主要是在西地中海，运价约为 700-800 美元/40′（西地中海除外）和 900-1000 美元/40′（北欧除外）。
• 设备：中欧部分地区，特别是奥地利、斯洛伐克、瑞士、匈牙利和德国南部/东部，设备仍然短缺，建议使用承运人运输。南欧港口目前不存在设备问题。

[航空 - 全球]2025 年 2 月 24 日星期一至 3 月 2 日星期日（第 9 周）（资料来源：Worldacd.com）：

• 在贸易不确定性的影响下，中国至美国的货运量疲软：航空货运量环比下降-10%，即期费率降至 3.80 美元/公斤（环比下降 9%，同比下降 11%）。微量不确定性削减了电子商务航班，而由于托运人面临贸易限制，海运进口量激增 41%。
• 中国对欧洲市场的表现优于美国市场：装运量同比增长 4%，现货价格飙升至 4.58 美元/公斤（同比增长 17%，环比下降 2%），显示出与美国市场相比的韧性。
• 尽管 "伦敦年 "后航空货运疲软，但全球航空货运仍在增长：2 月份，全球货运量同比增长 5%，其中亚太地区和南美洲的货运量同比增长 8%，而中东和南亚地区（MESA）的货运量在红海危机达到顶峰后同比下降 6%。
• 市场趋于稳定，但贸易政策迫在眉睫：航空货运需求连续四周上升，全球现货运价为 2.57 美元/公斤（同比增长 10%），这表明农历新年后的航空货运正在复苏。然而，美国关税、潜在的 100 万美元港口费以及贸易的不确定性可能会扰乱供应链，从而有可能使更多货物转向空运。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

即将举行的网络研讨会

2025 年关税趋势：专家洞察美国海关新格局

3 月 18 日星期二 @ 太平洋时间上午 8:00 / 美国东部时间上午 11:00 / 格林尼治标准时间下午 15:00 / 欧洲中部时间下午 16:00

本周新闻

Flexport 首席执行官：成功实施人工智能的 "副产品 "是效率

Flexport 推出了新的人工智能驱动工具，以提高供应链的可视性和自动化程度，包括路线规划、数据分析和退税处理。在提高自动化水平的同时，Flexport 还计划增加员工人数。未来的优先事项包括实现常备税率自动化和改进贸易咨询工具。

Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 说：关税让我们陷入 "胡萝卜加大棒 "的境地

本周三，Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 参加了彭博新闻社（Bloomberg Surveillance）的访谈，讨论了近期的关税和贸易动态，包括对美国制造业和出口的影响、企业如何应对近期的变化以及上个月美国贸易代表（USTR）的提案。"瑞安说："美国的再工业化进程相对较快，但现在断言这是否是特朗普政府的结果还为时尚早。

关税不确定性促使美国零售商下调春季进口预期

由于特朗普政府与主要贸易伙伴之间的关税不确定性，美国零售商下调了第二季度的进口预期。全美零售联合会（NRF）和哈克特联合公司（Hackett Associates）报告称，由于持续的关税挑战和货物前置造成的高库存，4月至7月的预测有所下调。预计 4 月和 5 月的进口量将同比增长，但增速将低于此前的预期，而 6 月和 7 月的进口量将有所下降，其中 7 月的进口量将比去年下降 13.9%。NRF 提到了对中国商品加征关税以及美国港口可能对中国吨位征收新费用的担忧，这可能会提高货主和消费者的成本。

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，中国至美国东海岸和中国至北欧的 Flexport OTI 下降，而中国至美国西海岸的 OTI 上升。

Week to March 10, 2025

本周，中国至美国西海岸的海洋适时指数（OTI）从40天跃升至44.5天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸从 64.5 天减少到 62.5 天，而中国至北欧也出现下降，从 76.5 天减少到 73 天。

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[关税更新］

• 周三，唐纳德-特朗普总统同意对墨西哥和加拿大的汽车免征 25% 的关税，为期一个月。
• 根据标准普尔全球移动公司（S&P Global Mobility）的数据，在美国销售的汽车和轻型卡车中，每五辆就有一辆以上是在加拿大或墨西哥制造的。关税可能会使某些车型的价格上涨多达 12,200 美元。
• 此外，互惠关税将于 4 月 2 日开始实施。请关注我们的实时博客，了解最新进展。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 运力和市场：需求正在缓慢改善，但尚未达到人民币升值前的水平，而运力已恢复并稳定在 90% 以上，所有口岸都有空位。预计航运量可能会从中国转向东南亚。
• 费率趋势：浮动费率稳步下降，一些承运商将费率延长至三月底。由于浮动市场运价下降和运力充足，三月份的旺季附加费（PSS）已经降低。
• 设备：目前，大多数原产地网关的设备供应充足，预计不会出现重大短缺。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 运力展望：3 月初，承运船舶的总体利用率低于最初预期。平淡的市场促使承运商撤回了三月份的 GRI，并采取更具竞争力的姿态来吸引货物。3 月份的几次空航略微缓解了供过于求的局面，但并未造成运力的严重短缺。市场继续呈现整体供过于求的局面。此外，由于美国贸易代表（USTR）建议对涉及中国船舶运营商和中国建造船舶的国际海运服务征收费用并加以限制，承运商已开始调整其在大城北和外环湾之间的贸易运力部署。然而，现阶段对方便旗贸易的广泛影响仍不确定。
• 需求前景：在人民币贬值之后，外贸出口需求已基本恢复到正常水平。在出口方面，生产已恢复到满负荷状态，但在欧洲，由于库存积压问题，订单出现延迟。此外，与去年相比，今年夏天欧洲购物需求疲软，大型国际活动减少，从而降低了提前采购和发货的需求，导致库存水平上升。这也是导致三月份市场需求疲软和货运量不足的原因之一。
• 市场发展前景：鉴于目前市场状况平平，以及美国贸易代表办公室的提案对承运商运力调整的潜在影响，市场可能会出现短期波动，不确定性增加。此外，预计承运商将在 3 月中下旬或 4 月初尝试通过 GRI 提高运价，以提高船舶利用率。除非发生重大事件，如红海航线重新开放，否则目前的 FAK 即期运价预计不会进一步下调。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 运力/需求：空白航班已经减少，我们预计三月份的运力将更加稳定。这些空白航班主要集中在南欧航线，尤其是东地中海航线。
• 利用率：大多数承运商在北欧和南欧的利用率都很高，有些承运商 3 月份航班的利用率达到了 100%。这表明需求在增加，而北欧的情况更为明显。此外，美国政府可能对欧盟商品征收关税，预计将进一步影响贸易需求。
• 费率：北欧大多数承运商已决定将三月份的附加费推迟至四月份。不过，一些承运商已经缓解了延迟，并计划对运往美国东海岸和美国海湾地区的货物征收附加费。三月份的 FAK 费率水平反映出对潜在的 PSS 持怀疑态度。在地中海地区，某些承运商已宣布计划效仿北欧承运商，在 4 月份引入 PSS。
• 设备：中欧部分地区，特别是奥地利、斯洛伐克、瑞士、匈牙利和德国南部/东部地区，设备仍然短缺。对于这些产地，建议使用承运人运输。与此同时，南欧港口目前没有出现设备短缺的情况。

[航空 - 全球]2025 年 2 月 17 日星期一至 2 月 23 日星期日（第 8 周）（来源：Worldacd.com）：

• 亚太地区反弹：亚太地区的航空货运吨位在农历新年后继续回升，继第 7 周增长 20% 之后，第 8 周又增长了 6%。亚太地区至欧洲的货运量增长了 5%，而日本至欧洲的货运量则增长了 19%。其他主要市场，包括韩国（+7%）、越南（+8%）和泰国（+18%）也有增长。
• 亚太地区至美国航线恢复：继第 7 周增长 28% 之后，第 8 周该航线的货运量反弹了 +5%，回到了 1 月中旬的水平。日本和香港（各增长 11%）、韩国和台湾（各增长 9%）的增幅显著。
• 汇率趋势：亚太地区到美国的现货价格环比上涨 4%，达到 4.99 美元/千克，中国到美国的现货价格环比上涨 9%，达到 4.08 美元/千克。与此同时，受中国（-3%）、香港（-3%）和日本（-6%）下跌的影响，亚太地区至欧洲的价格小幅下跌至 3.99 美元/千克。
• 全球稳定：全球总吨位环比增长+1%，亚太地区+6%的增长被北美（-2%）和中亚及南亚（-6%）的下降所抵消。全球平均空运费率增长了 2%，达到每公斤 2.32 美元，亚太地区是主要推动力。由于农历新年时间不同，与去年同期相比仍有偏差。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

本周新闻

Flexport 首席执行官："团队中的每个成员都应使用人工智能

Flexport 推出了 20 种人工智能驱动的产品来改变物流，包括用于人工智能驱动的报告的 Flexport Intelligence 和用于多供应商货运管理的 Flexport Control Tower。
展望未来，公司计划深化货运交付整合和人工智能驱动的库存融资，保持快速创新。

美国潜在关税引发美加跨境即期卡车运价和运量上涨

加拿大与美国之间的货运量和即期运价在美国3月4日生效的25%关税之前急剧上升。企业为避免成本上升而匆忙发货，推动多伦多至芝加哥的干货运输现货市场货运量猛增57%，运价也不断上涨。自美国大选以来，从美国到加拿大的现货价格上涨了18%，过去两周上涨了6%，达到两年来的最高点。1 月份，加拿大装载板运营商 Loadlink 的跨境货运量占 72%，Loadlink 的加拿大现货市场运费指数飙升了 40%。相比之下，美国与墨西哥之间的运价涨幅仍然不大。

跨太平洋承运商在 2025-26 年初的合同谈判中达到更高水平

跨太平洋集装箱运输公司正在寻求将 2025-26 年合同的运价提高 20-30%，目标是西海岸每 FEU 2000 美元，东海岸每 FEU 3000 美元。许多进口商计划在 3 月份之前敲定合同，而一些零售商则推迟谈判，因为他们预计进口将温和增长，船舶运力也将增加。现货运价一直在下降，西海岸运价为每 FEU 2450 美元（同比下降 37%），东海岸运价为 3575 美元（同比下降 38%）。承运商正在利用普遍费率上调（GRIs）和旺季附加费（PSSs）来稳定价格，但竞争导致折扣低于每 FEU 2,000 美元。

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[关税更新］

• 周三，美国总统唐纳德-特朗普威胁要对来自欧盟的进口商品征收 25% 的关税，欧盟是美国与中国并列的第三大贸易伙伴。
• 上周五，美国贸易代表（USTR）公布了一项提案，拟对进入美国港口的中国航运公司和中国建造的船舶征收高额费用。
• 拥有美国制造船舶的运营商每次在美国港口停靠可获得高达 100 万美元的退款。中国制造了全球 70% 的绿色船舶，而美国制造的集装箱船数量相对较少。目前，共有 18 艘美国建造的船舶，另有 3 艘正在订购中。
• 集装箱船通常每个航次停靠 2-3 个美国港口。根据这项建议，集装箱船每次停靠可能会面临超过 300 万美元的额外费用--与每次停靠通常 1,000-1500 万美元的收入相比，这是一笔不小的开支。这相当于每个 TEU 250 美元至 300 美元。
• 一些承运商和运营商可能会通过网络重新设计来规避这些拟议费用。目前，对单个公司的影响还很难预测，因为这取决于供应链背后的运营商组合及其运输的线路。
• 阅读我们的实时博客，了解提案的更多细节，以及关税和贸易政策的实时更新。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 产能和市场：春节过后，产能正在恢复，目前已超过 90%。需求也在增加，但尚未达到春节前的水平。与春节前相比，目前有充足的可用空间。这表明，节假日放缓之后，情况正在趋于正常，但需求仍然有些疲软。
• 利率趋势：浮动费率在 2 月份剩余时间和 3 月份迅速下降。三月份不太可能全面提高费率（GRI）。这表明定价面临下调压力，原因可能是运力增加和需求相对减少。在固定合同方面，三月份的旺季附加费（PSS）正在减少，而浮动费率则呈下降趋势。
• 设备：设备供应情况有所改善，与人民币升值前相比，现在大多数亚洲口岸都有足够的设备。这是一个积极的迹象，表明与设备有关的物流瓶颈正在缓解。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 空间展望：2 月下旬至 3 月上旬的预订量并未受到 GRI 的明显影响。第 9 周的订票量仍为春节前正常周订票量的 75%-85%。3 月初的空白航次对运力影响不大，因为需求保持平稳。需求没有明显增加，订票工作继续顺利进行，没有关于舱位或设备问题的报道。
• 目的港拥堵：大多数目的港的拥堵情况有所缓解。然而，"市场航线"（RTM）的水上货运仍面临锚泊等待时间，这可能导致转运或到港延误。此外，2 月 13 日比利时铁路罢工可能会降低堆场周转效率，这可能会影响未来几周的船舶停靠效率。
• 市场前景：大多数承运商都宣布了 3 月初的 GRI，以努力提高运价，尽管市场需求有限，无法支持运价上涨。与此同时，承运商继续为这一时期寻找货物。历史上曾出现过承运商一致制定高于预期费率的情况，最终成功推高了市场上的各类货运（FAK）费率。截至 2 月 25 日，尚未有取消或削减 3 月份 GRI 的报道。
• 您还可以在下面找到我们每周更新的英国和欧洲港口的海运停留时间：
  
  

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 运力/需求：空白航次正在减少，我们预计三月份的运力将更加稳定。大多数承运商在北欧和南欧的利用率都很高，超额预订的迹象较少，而最近几周美国政府对钢铁和铝征收关税曾导致超额预订。
• 费率：大多数承运商已决定将三月份的 PSS 推迟至四月份。一些承运商计划在美国东海岸和美国海湾地区实施 PSS，从而缓解了这一问题。三月份的 FAK 费率水平显示出对可能出现的旺季收费持怀疑态度的迹象。
• 设备：中欧部分地区，特别是奥地利、斯洛伐克、瑞士、匈牙利和德国南部/东部，设备短缺的情况依然存在，建议使用承运人运输。与此同时，南欧港口目前没有面临任何设备问题。

[航空 - 全球]2025 年 2 月 10 日星期一至 2 月 16 日星期日（第 7 周）（来源：Worldacd.com）：

• 全球经济复苏：全球航空货运量在经历了农历新年期间-13%的跌幅之后，出现了连续两次+3%的周环比增长，与 2024 年-20%的急剧跌幅和随后+15%的反弹形成鲜明对比。
• 亚太地区反弹：亚太地区原产地的吨位在第 5 周下降 35%之后，在第 7 周大幅回升，周环比增长 15%--这比去年同期的年同比下降近 60%要温和得多。
• 中国/香港低谷：中国大陆和香港的低点出现在第 6 周，与两周前相比，跌幅为-45%，而 2024 年第 7 周的跌幅为-66%。
• 运往美国的货物：从中国和香港运往美国的货物在第 7 周出现大幅反弹（分别环比增长 40% 和 27%），但运量仍比 1 月份的平均水平低 20%-30% 左右。
• 现货汇率变动：第7周，亚太地区的现货汇率平均为每公斤3.54美元（环比+2%，同比+9%），而亚太地区到美国的汇率环比增长+4%，达到每公斤4.81美元。与此同时，中国到美国的汇率继续下降（环比-6%），但日本和韩国的汇率显著上升（环比+28%和+13%）。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

即将举行的网络研讨会

[直播]物流的未来：大事即将来临

2 月 27 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 8:00 / 美国东部时间上午 11:00 / 格林尼治标准时间下午 16:00 / 欧洲中部时间下午 17:00

北美Freight Market Update Live

3 月 12 日星期三 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 美国东部时间下午 12:00

本周新闻

受 "创始人模式 "启发，Flexport 推出大量人工智能工具

Flexport 正在推出一套人工智能驱动的产品和功能，这标志着半年一次的系列发布中的第一次。此次发布的亮点包括 "Flexport Intelligence "和 "Control Tower"。"Flexport Intelligence "可根据自然语言提示提供实时货运洞察，而 "Control Tower "则可实现整个物流网络的实时可见性和控制。这些人工智能驱动的工具旨在补充而非取代人工客户关系。Flexport 还在为卡车司机、仓库和其他合作伙伴测试人工智能语音代理，以简化运营。

特朗普针对中国提出的港口停靠费是件 "大事"：Flexport 首席执行官

美国贸易代表（USTR）提议对中国船只征收高额港口费。Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 在 NewsNation 上解释说，"这几乎是没有办法的办法"，因为中国生产了全球约 70% 的集装箱船。彼得森指出，即使一家航运公司主要使用非中国船只，但只要拥有一艘中国制造的船只，每次靠港仍有可能被征收 50 万美元的费用。

贸易团体再次推动海洋承运商开展数字化运动

近三十多个贸易团体正在敦促航运公司加快采用数字标准，以造福托运人、货代和报关行。这一呼吁是在致数字集装箱航运协会（DCSA）成员的一封信中发出的，是继11个月前发出类似呼吁之后的又一次呼吁。数字集装箱航运协会最近发布了新的订舱和电子提单标准。这封信敦促承运商调整其实施计划，与其他 DCSA 成员合作，并让客户参与开发。包括主要行业协会在内的签署方呼吁从 2025 年年中开始更新进度。

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，中国至美国西海岸的 Flexport OTI 指数趋于平稳，而中国至北欧和中国至美国东海岸的指数则有所上升。

Week to February 24, 2025

本周，中国至美国西海岸的海洋适时指数（OTI）稳定在上周的水平：39.5天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸的适时指数从 62 天跃升至 65 天，而中国至北欧的适时指数也有所上升，从 74 天增至 75 天。

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[关税更新］

• 周二，美国总统唐纳德-特朗普告诉记者，他可能最早于 4 月 2 日对汽车、药品和半导体征收 25% 的关税。
• 不过，他没有说明关税是适用于所有进口汽车，还是针对特定国家。
• 关税一旦实施，将对墨西哥、日本和加拿大等美国主要汽车出口国产生重大影响。
• 有关最新关税更新的详细信息，请阅读我们的博客。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 产能和市场：春节过后，产能正在恢复，目前已超过 90%。需求也在增加，但尚未达到春节前的水平。与春节前相比，目前有充足的可用空间。这表明，虽然节假日过后，市场正在恢复正常，但需求仍然有些疲软。
• 利率趋势：浮动费率在 2 月份剩余时间和 3 月份迅速下降。三月份不太可能全面提高费率（GRI）。这表明定价面临下调压力，原因可能是运力增加和需求相对减少。
• 设备：设备供应情况有所改善，与人民币升值前相比，目前大多数亚洲口岸的设备供应充足。这是一个积极的迹象，表明与设备有关的物流瓶颈正在缓解。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 空间展望：已宣布的几个空白航次影响了 2 月底至 3 月初的运力。远东-西伯利亚航线的整体恢复仍然缓慢。
• 目的地端口拥塞：承运商报告显示，目的港持续拥堵。值得注意的是，鹿特丹等待靠泊的船只的预计到达时间延迟了 5-9 天。
• GRI 公布：双子星和海洋联盟中至少有三家承运商宣布了三月份的 GRI，根据目前的市场报价，超过了 50%。虽然 2 月下半月的运价仍稳定在较低水平，但承运商的目标是通过此次全球运价指数将 3 月初的运价推高。这一宣布也可能激励托运人将货物提前到二月下半月。
• 预测和建议：鉴于目前的供需动态，我们认为 3 月份的 FAK 房价不太可能出现如此大幅的上涨。不过，此次 GRI 可能会有效阻止费率的进一步下降，并有可能导致 3 月份市场的小幅回升。建议托运人在二月份提早预订，以确保当前的费率和可用空间，同时降低三月份费率上涨的风险。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 运力/需求：二月份的最后两周运力激增，北欧-美国东海岸航线上的许多船只都已订满。这一增长与美国政府即将于 3 月 12 日实施的钢铝关税有关。与此同时，地中海地区的利用率依然强劲，没有超额预订的迹象。
• 费率：一些承运商将三月份的旺季附加费（PSS）推迟到四月份，而其他承运商则有选择性地在某些地区实施。市场对旺季附加费仍持怀疑态度，因为它目前只影响北欧的出口。
• 设备：中欧部分地区，特别是奥地利、斯洛伐克、瑞士、匈牙利和德国南部/东部地区，设备短缺的情况依然存在。对于从这些地区出发的货物，建议采用承运人运输的方式，以减轻设备方面的挑战。

[航空 - 全球]2025 年 2 月 3 日星期一至 2 月 9 日星期日（第 6 周）（来源：Worldacd.com）：

• 全球反弹与价格下跌：第 6 周（2025 年 2 月 3 日至 9 日）的航空货运量在经历了农历新年的下跌后，周环比反弹了 3%，而全球整体运价环比下跌了 5%，为每公斤 2.30 美元（同比上涨了 1%）。
• 亚太地区的影响：价格下降的主要原因是亚太地区，其价格环比下降了-11%；该地区的现货价格环比下降了-8%，为每公斤 3.56 美元，尽管全球和地区现货价格环比均上涨了 4%。
• 中东和南亚（MESA）趋势：中东和南亚（MESA）原产地的吨位环比小幅下降-1%（同比下降 7%），现货价格环比下降-4%，为每公斤 2.99 美元，但同比仍增长 26%。对欧洲的贸易量环比下降 21%，但现货价格仍比去年同期高出 32%。
• 中国/香港至美国和欧洲：
• 至美国：第五周中国原产吨位环比下降 20%，第六周环比下降 28%（同比下降 41%），现货价格降至每公斤 3.99 美元。
• 欧洲：中国/香港吨位大幅下降（第 5 周环比下降达 30%，第 6 周进一步下降），尽管现货价格相对稳定在每公斤 3.91 美元左右。
• 其他东亚市场复苏：韩国、台湾和越南等国在第 5 周经历了吨位的急剧下降（从-42%到-60% WoW），但在第 6 周出现了反弹，增长了 +21% 到 +68% WoW。它们的现货价格仍远远高于去年的水平。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

 

本周新闻

远洋承运商对运力控制的控制越来越紧，没有松动的迹象

在过去 25 年里，由于运力萎缩，集装箱航运的成本越来越高，可靠性越来越低。21 世纪初，承运商将满足需求放在首位，但 2008 年金融危机爆发后，他们放慢了船舶速度以削减成本。此后，空航和港口拥堵进一步降低了运力，而 COVID-19 和地缘政治冲突等外部冲击则使情况变得更糟。随着新环保法规的出台，承运商可能会将不断上涨的燃料成本转嫁给托运人，从而使他们面临更大的挑战。

美国监管机构重新开放卡车经纪人透明度提案，征求新意见

美国监管机构正就一项要求货运经纪人向卡车运输公司披露托运人支付费率和经纪人利润的拟议规则重新公开征求公众意见。应运输业小企业联盟（Small Business in Transportation Coalition）的要求，联邦汽车运输安全管理局（FMCSA）将征求意见期延长至 3 月 20 日。该规则旨在通过规定电子记录和在 48 小时内获取交易详情来提高透明度。然而，FMCSA 拒绝禁止放弃承运商获取这些信息权利的经纪合同。

小型仓库越来越难找

10 万平方英尺以下仓库的空置率仅为 3.9%，而整体空置率为 6.7%，大型建筑的空置率为 10.1%。开发商专注于建造大型仓库，以满足电子商务的需求，从而导致小型仓库的短缺，尤其是在城市地区。随着企业寻求更小的仓库来降低成本和缩短交货时间，寻找空间仍然是一大挑战。

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，中国至美国西海岸的 Flexport OTI 保持上升，而中国至北欧和中国至美国东海岸的 Flexport OTI 则有所下降。

Week to February 17, 2025

本周，中国至美国西海岸的海洋适时指数（OTI）从38天上升至39.5天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸和中国至北欧分别从 65.5 天和 76 天降至 62 天和 74 天。

 

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[关税/最低豁免更新]

• 根据特朗普总统的行政命令，自 2 月 4 日（星期二）起，对来自中国和香港的商品额外征收 10%的关税，该行政命令还取消了对原产于中国的商品的 "微量 "规则。
• 该行政命令还暂停了对原产于中国（墨西哥和加拿大推迟）的商品征收这些额外关税的退税。不过，企业仍可收回标准关税，包括 201 条款或 301 条款规定的关税。
• 作为回应，中国迅速宣布了一系列针对美国的报复措施。
• 与此同时，在特朗普总统与墨西哥总统克劳迪娅-谢因鲍姆和加拿大总理贾斯汀-特鲁多在最后一刻达成协议后，对加拿大和墨西哥的关税被推迟 30 天。
• 有关最新关税更新的详细信息，请阅读我们的博客。

[苏伊士运河最新消息]

• 自 2025 年 2 月 4 日起，苏伊士运河在经历了之前因红海袭击事件造成的中断后恢复了稳定。
• 胡塞武装已承诺遵守上个月达成的加沙停火协议，并暂停了对该地区商业航运的袭击。尽管如此，主要航运公司仍持谨慎态度，在恢复正常运营之前优先考虑安全问题。
• 鉴于安全局势不断改善，苏伊士运河管理局（SCA）正在积极努力恢复运河交通。
• 本周一，SCA 发布了运河计划延长 10 公里的新航行图。该项目旨在提高运力，每天可增加六至八艘船只通过。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 2 月份农历新年过后，需求依然疲软，预计浮动利率将进一步下降。到第 9 周和第 10 周，我们可以看到缓慢的复苏。
• 运力：节前宣布的空白航次目前正在影响市场运力。不过，尽管需求放缓，但由于在 LNY 节前推迟了船期，大多数承运商都表示 2 月份的船舶利用率良好。鉴于预计运价会下降，承运商预计会接受超额订舱，为三月份做准备。
• 设备：没有设备短缺的报告。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 2 月份农历新年过后，需求依然疲软，预计浮动利率将进一步下降。
• 运力：节前宣布的空白航次目前正在影响市场运力。不过，尽管需求放缓，但由于在 LNY 节前推迟了船期，大多数承运商都表示 2 月份的船舶利用率良好。鉴于预计运价会下降，承运商预计会接受超额订舱，为三月份做准备。
• 设备：由于空航和船舶延误，始发地偶尔会出现设备短缺的情况。及时打印设备交换收据 (EIR)，确保及时生成和处理单据，避免设备提货延误，及早提货有助于降低货物装载遗漏的风险。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 服务更新：最近几周，远洋承运商联盟和船只部署发生了变化，暂时减少了可用运力，造成了服务中断。这些主要承运商联盟内部的战略调整预计将在未来稳定船期并提高服务可靠性。
• 北欧和南欧的空白航次都有所减少。
• 费率：一些承运商从 3 月 1 日开始对从北欧运往美国、加拿大和墨西哥的货物征收旺季附加费 (PSS)。
• 2 月份的需求保持稳定，承运能力处于健康水平。

[航空 - 全球]（2025 年 1 月 20 日星期一至 1 月 26 日星期日）（第 4 周）（来源：Worldacd.com）：

• 全球空运费率和货运量：第 4 周（1 月 20 日至 26 日）全球航空货运平均费率周环比增长 4%，达到 2.52 美元/千克，同比增长 11%。亚太地区的吨位周环比增长+2%，年同比增长+6%，但仍比第49周的峰值低-8%。
• 亚太地区至欧洲和美国的趋势：亚太地区到欧洲的货运量环比激增 10%，目前同比增长 5%，中国到欧洲的货运量环比增长 11%，同比增长 12%。亚太地区至欧洲（4.32 美元/千克）和中国至欧洲（4.29 美元/千克）的现货运价保持稳定，但环比增长 30%。亚太地区到美国的价格上涨至 5.30 美元/公斤，同比增长 28%，而中国到美国的价格（4.49 美元/公斤）同比增长 5%。
• 全球吨位趋于稳定：在第2周反弹+28%和第3周反弹+11%之后，第4周全球吨位大体保持稳定（环比+1%）。目前的水平比 12 月份的平均水平低-7%，但与去年 10 月份和去年此时的水平相近，这表明 2025 年的年同比增长率低于 2024 年的年同比增长率 +11%。
• 中南美洲（CSA）增长：中南美洲（CSA）的出港吨位在第四周飙升了+17%，在2025年前四周增长了+62%，这主要是情人节前鲜花运输的推动。鲜花货运量增加了一倍多（+114%），其中 92% 运往北美。
• 哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔的花卉出口居首位：在 CSA 出口到北美的花卉中，98% 来自哥伦比亚（61%）和厄瓜多尔（37%）。2025 年初，花卉占哥伦比亚航空出口总量的 77%，占厄瓜多尔航空出口总量的 63%，这进一步加强了哥伦比亚和厄瓜多尔对北美市场的依赖。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

即将举行的网络研讨会

美国关税的连锁反应：全球企业需要了解什么

2 月 6 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 8:00 / 美国东部时间上午 11:00 / 格林尼治标准时间下午 16:00 / 欧洲中部时间下午 17:00

情景规划：塑造货运市场的三大关键发展

2 月 10 日星期一 @ 太平洋时间上午 7:00 / 美国东部时间上午 10:00 / 欧洲中部时间上午 16:00 / 格林尼治标准时间上午 15:00

驾驭 2025 RFP 季节：成功的 RFP 新手指南

2 月 11 日星期二 @ 太平洋时间上午 11:00 / 美国东部时间下午 2:00

北美Freight Market Update Live

2 月 13 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 美国东部时间下午 12:00

驾驭 2025 RFP 季节：升级 RFP 高级指南

2 月 19 日星期三 @ 太平洋时间上午 10:00 / 美国东部时间下午 1:00

本周新闻

Flexport 首席执行官解析复杂多变的全球贸易格局

在美国总统唐纳德-特朗普提高关税导致全球市场面临不确定性之际，Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 在接受 CNBC 的 Jim Cramer 采访时讨论了企业如何应对快速变化的贸易形势。彼得森表示，许多公司都在急于进口商品，以应对不断升级的关税，尤其是对中国进口商品的关税。

美国邮政在意外暂停后恢复接收来自中国的包裹

在中国对美国商品征收报复性关税后，美国邮政周二突然停止接收来自中国和香港的包裹。该禁令在周三迅速撤销，美国邮政和海关与边境保护局（CBP）正在努力执行新的关税，将干扰降到最低。

Flexport 首席执行官概述关税对航运和消费者价格的实际影响

本周二，Flexport 首席执行官瑞安-彼得森（Ryan Petersen）与 NewsNation 的布雷克-伯曼（Blake Burman）坐在一起，讨论中美贸易的最新情况，特别是昨天生效的新的 10%关税和微量豁免的暂停。"瑞安说："我不认为这就是结局。"财政部长必须在 4 月 1 日之前就中国贸易问题向总统提出正式建议，因此我预计贸易壁垒将会增加。

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，Flexport OTI 全面上涨。

Week to February 3, 2025

本周，中国至北欧的 "海洋适时指数"（OTI）在过去一个月内大幅上升：尽管在过去几周内略有下降，但已连续两周上升，从78天增至79天。同时，中国至美国西海岸和中国至美国东海岸的 OTI 也在上升，分别从 37 天增至 37.5 天和 64.5 天增至 65.5 天。

 

值得关注的趋势

[关税观察］

• 美国总统唐纳德-特朗普周一告诉记者，在承诺对半导体、钢铁、铝、药品和铜征收关税后不久，他打算征收比 2.5% "大得多 "的普遍关税。
• 此外，上周末，特朗普总统威胁要对哥伦比亚征收紧急关税。在哥伦比亚政府同意特朗普政府的条件后，这一僵局很快得到解决。
• 参议院商业、科学和运输委员会本周召开会议，讨论巴拿马运河对美国贸易和安全的影响。在上周的就职典礼上，特朗普总统重申了他 "收回巴拿马运河 "的计划。
• 有关最新关税更新的详细信息，请阅读我们的博客。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 需求：农历新年假期导致需求减少，给利率带来下行压力。SCFI 已连续第三周下降。
• 汇率：由于中国放假，预计未来 1-2 周内不会调整费率。预计 2 月初将进一步调整短期费率，调整模式与旺季附加费 (PSS) 相似。
• 船舶利用率：为防止船舶利用率不足，承运商在主要始发装货港建立了滚装池，预计未来两周将出现滚装现象。目前还没有产地设备短缺的报告。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 承运人公告：为防止船舶使用率过低，承运商宣布在春节假期前后停航。这导致主要始发装货港的滚装货物积压。预计未来两周内将出现滚装货物。
• 服务更新：新的联盟服务将于二月全面启动，有关服务可靠性的更多更新将陆续发布。
• 设备供应：由于空航和船只延误，原产地偶尔会出现设备短缺。
• 客户建议为了最大限度地降低货物漏装的风险，我们建议及时打印设备交换收据 (EIR)，并提早提取设备。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 服务更新：新的联盟服务将于二月开始。
• 空航北欧空航的频率有所下降。不过，在一些特定航线上，主要是在东地中海地区，仍然存在一些空白航次。
• 可用舱位承运商发现，美国东西海岸航线的可用舱位略有增加。
• 设备挑战设备短缺继续影响中欧，包括奥地利、瑞士、匈牙利、斯洛伐克、捷克共和国和德国南部。承运商建议利用承运运输来更好地监控和管理需求。

[空中 - 全球] 2025 年 1 月 13 日星期一至 1 月 19 日星期日（第 3 周）：

• 航空货运需求趋势：第 3 周（1 月 13 日至 19 日），全球航空货运吨位周环比增长了 8%，而前一周则反弹了 29%。货运吨位在 12 月底和 1 月初急剧下降-35%，现在已恢复到圣诞节前水平的 90%。与去年同期相比，第 3 周全球货运量增长了 +3%，第 2 周和第 3 周合计增长了 +2%。
• 现货运价动态：第 3 周，全球航空货运平均费率稳定在 2.43 美元/公斤，同比增长 7%。全球现货运价环比下降-3%，但同比仍上涨 16%，其中中东和南亚地区（MESA）（同比上涨 54%）和亚太地区（同比上涨 20%）涨幅显著。
• 亚太市场表现：第 3 周，亚太地区吨位环比增长 5%，同比增长 5%，但仍比第 49 周的峰值水平低 10%。亚太地区高峰后的需求下降（-33%）与去年（-30%）相似，但欧洲的需求恢复滞后，亚太地区至欧洲的需求与第 49 周相比下降了 -20%，中国至欧洲的需求下降了 -15%。
• 区域汇率趋势：亚太地区至欧洲的现货运价环比下降 -4%，为 4.35 美元/千克，比第 49 周下降 -15%，但同比仍增长 31%。亚太地区到美国的吨价环比上涨了 7%，目前比第 48 周的峰值低了 16%，而运价则连续第五周下跌，跌至 5.21 美元/千克，但同比仍上涨了 29%。
• 市场驱动因素：季节性复苏正在进行中，但由于农历新年（1 月 29 日）提前，影响了需求模式，因此面临逆风。现货运价同比持续走高，反映了运力限制和持续的电子商务需求，尤其是在主要贸易航线上。

来源： Worldacd.com

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本周新闻

需求疲软引发市场份额争夺战，亚欧远洋运价下跌

亚欧贸易航线正经历着货代和承运商之间的激烈竞争，农历新年假期前运价下跌，需求放缓。许多中国工厂提前发运订单，导致 1 月中旬以来市场冷清。亚洲至北欧的短期运价自 12 月底以来下跌了 21%，报收于 3,963 美元/欧洲货币单位，而亚洲至地中海的运价则下跌了 10%以上。

航运业减产减缓了印度-美国即期海运费的下降速度

印度-美国东海岸贸易的现货运价在主要承运商空航导致运力减少的支撑下放缓了跌势。目前的运价平均为每 FEU 1,350 美元至 1,500 美元，普氏 1 月 24 日的报告为 1,480 美元，比月初略有下降。尽管计划在 2 月份实施 GRI 和附加费，但在动荡的市场条件下，承运商仍对其成功与否心存疑虑。由于运力过剩，苏伊士运河的部分重新开放可能会进一步增加运价压力。

胡塞叛军承诺保持克制后，承运商开始关注红海航线

尽管胡塞武装宣布将攻击范围限制在以色列所属船只上，但远洋承运商对恢复红海航线仍持谨慎态度。赫伯罗特（Hapag-Lloyd）和马士基（Maersk）等承运商坚称，只有当该地区被认为安全时，他们才会返回。始于2023年底的红海危机迫使大多数船只绕道非洲，减少了船队的可用运力，推高了运费。分析师警告说，恢复苏伊士航线将使运力充斥市场，导致供应链中断和即期运价急剧下降。虽然承运商可以通过报废和慢速航行来缓解运力过剩，但市场下滑似乎不可避免。

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，中国至北欧和中国至美国西海岸的 Flexport OTI 呈上升趋势，而中国至美国东海岸则趋于平稳。

Week to January 27, 2025

本周，中国至北欧的 "海洋适时指数"（OTI）在过去一个月中大幅上升，上周略有下降，降至75.5天，本周再次上升至77.5天。同样，中国至美国西海岸的 OTI 从 35.5 天增至 37.5 天，而中国至美国东海岸则稳定在 64.5 天。