市场更新

值得关注的趋势

• [海洋-TPEB]利用目前浮动市场的软条件（低费率，开放空间，全面的）。考虑利用优质服务，因为它们已经恢复了出色的运输时间表现。
• [远东西行航线上，劳动节前的需求依然平淡--订舱量略有增加，又进一步下降。高通胀、高库存、能源成本和地缘政治不稳定仍然影响着欧洲端的需求。现货价格也在下降。
• [航空-跨大西洋] 市场继续双向疲软，需求继续下降。美国和欧洲的航空公司将为夏季航班增加大量运力，在产品推出和经济状况改善的推动下，随着需求回升，预计第三季度运量和运价都将回升。
• [航空]客运能力继续恢复，预计夏季欧洲、北美和亚洲的客运能力将大幅增加。增加的腹舱容量可能会影响第三季度的费率。
• [卡车运输-美国国内]衡量所有模式的合同招标量的FreightWaves SONAR出港招标量指数（OTVI）同比下降25%（月环比下降3.3%），在招标拒绝率大幅下降后，衡量接受的招标量则为9.6%。

Sourse from Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

• [Ocean – TPEB] Effective capacity still is at an oversupply as carriers announce more blank sailings and try to reign in further rate drops. Space remains wide open and rates have dropped to pre-pandemic levels.
• [Ocean – TAWB] Rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity remains open, expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Ocean – LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This is putting pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand, we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Air – Asia] The market is stabilizing and rates will remain higher than Q1 while demand has recovered and remains relatively stable. Some freighter capacity is being retired, specifically on Transpacific. An increase in passenger capacity as summer approaches should keep the overall capacity (freighter + passenger) relatively stable and maintain a healthy supply demand balance.
• [Trucking – N. America] The port of Houston discontinued Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours as of Apr 29, 2023. The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—Gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide.​​​​

Scoure from Flexport.com

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

• [Ocean-All Lanes] Environmental regulation compliance resulting from IMO 2023 has led to vessels not returning to pre-Covid speeds, effectively removing ~8% capacity from the market.
• [Ocean-TAWB] Recommend booking two or more weeks prior to Cargo Ready Date (CRD) to secure space and minimize CRD changes as much as possible. Alternatively, leverage premium products to guarantee equipment and loading for your most time sensitive cargo.
• [Air-Correction] We previously reported that runway work was being conducted at Beijing Airport, which was incorrect. The maintenance work is happening at Shanghai Pudong Int’l Airport. Estimated impact (per Shanghai Airport): ~10% capacity on PVG-US, and ~25-30% capacity on PVG – EU, and work will be ongoing through June.
• [Air-Asia > N. America] Carriers are NOT sharing significantly reduced fixed rates, in order to not engage their capacity at the lowest of the market. Expect rates to stay around the same level as at the end of March.
• [Air-Transatlantic] Passenger traffic is beginning to pick up and flight frequencies will continue to increase on Trans-Atlantic routes. The summer schedule of major European and US airlines is already significantly higher from mid-April onwards.

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean] On Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB), effective capacity remains at an oversupply with carriers continuing to announce more blank sailings in an attempt to reign in further rate drops. Meanwhile, the trends of shifting imports to the U.S. East Coast (USEC), as well as Canada & the Gulf, from the U.S. West Coast (USWC) continues to be seen in YoY volume data.
• [Ocean] Meanwhile, on Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB), rates continue their downward trend as demand is not recovering and capacity continues to increase. Expect this trend to continue for all Q2 2023 and beyond. Further, equipment is now widely available in all major European ports.
• [Air] A portion of Beijing Airport, the 3rd busiest in the country, is shut down for maintenance through the month of April. This is expected to remove approximately ⅓ of the facility’s air cargo volume, or ~2.6% of China’s overall air cargo volume.
• [Air] Transatlantic routes are continuing to see increasing numbers of passenger flights being scheduled, thereby increasing belly capacity from Europe to N. America. This has brought capacity on these routes back to pre-COVID levels; however rates remain high due to fuel prices.
• [Trucking] The majority of US and Canadian ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays—gulf ports are slightly congested but truck power is available nationwide and highway diesel rates remain stable.

运费

The Week In News

A key inflation gauge tracked by the Fed slowed in February

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, which is less than expected. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6%, the lowest since late 2021. This is encouraging news for policymakers, as it indicates that inflation may be stabilizing after a period of rapid growth. According to Flexport’s Chief Economist Phil Levy, “You look at this report and think, we’ve got to keep applying the brakes.”

European Shippers Sign Up for Waterborne Biofuel Initiative

Seventeen European shippers, led by Dutch multimodal operator Samskip, have signed on to the “Switch to Zero” campaign by the Port of Rotterdam Authority and GoodShipping. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) mandates that 32% of all energy usage in the EU, including at least 14% of all energy in road and rail transport fuels, must come from renewable sources such as biofuels. Flexport also partners with GoodShipping to enable our customers to work toward carbon neutrality via the Impact Dashboard, part of the Flexport platform.

来源于 Flexport.com

Trends To Watch

• [Ocean] Demand on the Far East Westbound (FEWB) lane has been down due to a combination of high inflation, inventory overages, and geopolitical instability—a rebound is expected in early April.
• [Air] Asia-EU routes are continuing to see soft demand, which means rates are down and capacity is up.
• [Air] On Asia-N. America routes providers are adding flights to the schedule, but a true recovery is not expected until Q3 thanks in part to importers still selling through existing inventory.
• [Air] Capacity out of Europe continues to increase, thanks in large part to the ongoing return of regularly scheduled passenger flights.
• Recommendations: For most modes and routes, take advantage of the soft market with widely available capacity and rates mostly in line with 2019 numbers.

运费

来源于 Flexport.com

Trends To Watch

• Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB) – Rates have been steadily declining throughout Q1 thanks in part to the easing of port congestion.
• LATAM Northbound (LANB) – Schedule reliability has nearly doubled due to lessening port congestion on both ends of the trade.
• Air capacity out of Asia has been cut due to dropping rates shifting much cargo back to ocean.
• Airlines have begun retiring freighters and some charters have been canceled, leading to capacity being nearly on par with pre-COVID numbers.
• In trucking news, the majority of U.S. ports and rail ramps are moving smoothly, with few, if any, delays to be found.

Trade Lane Rate Trends

Ocean

TPEB – up FEWB – down TAWB – down ISC » U.S. – down

空运

TPEB – down FEWB – down TAWB – down

The Week In News

MSC Takes Delivery of the World’s Biggest Ultra Large Container Ship

The largest container ship ever built—with a carry capacity of 24,346 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—launched last week. Owned by Bank of Communications Financial Leasing, the ship is chartered to Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Chinese officials took the opportunity of the MSC Irinia’s maiden voyage from Zhoushan to highlight the developing expertise of the country’s shipbuilding industry, giving the more established builders in Korea and Japan a run for their money.

West Coast Wipeout: Los Angeles, Long Beach Imports Still Sinking

The Port of Los Angeles has now dropped to third place for throughput at a U.S. port, behind the Port of New York and New Jersey and its own neighbor, the Port of Long Beach. Total throughput at LA in February dropped to 487,846—that’s a drop of 43% year on year. The article quotes Nerijus Poskus, Flexport’s VP of Ocean Strategy, as saying “I think a lot of the transition from the West Coast to the East Coast is permanent.”

来源于 Flexport.com

Ocean Freight Market Update

Asia → North America (TPEB)

• Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) Carriers look to pick up rate slack amid low volume market.
  • U.S.: Current TPEB market capacity and demand levels look to hold through the end of March. Prospects of general rate increases (GRI) for April 1st appear more common from the carriers than in previous months. Routine blank sailings on almost all tradelanes will persist through the end of March, as well.
  • Canada: Market and rate conditions are similar to the U.S. Vancouver continues to see stable vessel dwell counts (1 vessel) as well as berthing delays (3 days, 9 days for rail dwell).
• Rates: Soft on most origin-destination combinations.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Open.
• Recommendation: Book at least 2 weeks prior to cargo ready date (CRD), and keep upcoming blank sailings in mind.

Asia → Europe (FEWB)

• Demand and Supply are a bit more balanced this week after the blank sailings seen immediately following Lunar New Year (LNY). Booking intake is gradually improving but still not as strong as pre-LNY. Rates are still under pressure.
• Rates: Generally reduced or extended for the first half of March.
• Capacity/Equipment: Still seeing around 10-20% blank sailing average in weeks 11/12/13 to adjust for the decrease in demand. Expect the carriers to continue the same trend into March.
• Recommendation: Allow flexibility when planning your shipments due to anticipated congestion and delays (rolls).

Europe → North America (TAWB)

• Demand remains low and space continues to be widely available. Capacity is still outstripping demand and we expect this to continue for the foreseeable future.
• Rates: The drop continues as demand is not picking up at the same pace as last year and vessel utilization is in the 65-70% range, down from 90% a few months ago.
• Space: Due to the easing of congestion, space into the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and U.S. West Coast (USWC) is coming online.
• Capacity/Equipment: Equipment availability keeps getting better as congestion disappears. Low empty stacks at inland depots are also getting better in some areas, but prioritize pick-up from the Port of Loading if possible.
• Recommendation: Book 2-3 or more weeks prior to CRD. Request premium service for higher reliability and no-roll.

Indian Subcontinent → North America

• An increase in rates is expected as carriers announce General Rate Increases (GRIs) for the end of March and April. Full implementation of these GRIs is not expected, but slight increases will be felt across most Ports of Loading (POLs).
• Rates: Remain from 1H March.
• Space: Open.
• Capacity/Equipment: Slight capacity constraints to USWC. Equipment remains top of mind, but varies drastically based on carrier, POL, and equipment type.
• Recommendation: Be open to procuring equipment from wet ports vs. inland container depots and to use alternative services that may be slightly more expensive, but with less service disruptions.

North America → Asia

• Capacity is available across all major services, and carriers are looking for volume opportunities. No major services to the Asia Pacific (APAC) region are seeing space constraints.
• Congestion has been cleared out across most North American container yards with improved operations as a result of lowered demand.
• Equipment is available and ample in most major markets.
• The outlook at the end of Q1 and headed into Q2 is that most of the existing capacity will remain in place as carriers lightly reshuffle vessel capacity across trades.
• Rates: Rate pressures continue the trend slightly downwards MoM on certain lanes from coastal ports to Asia base ports. All carriers are trying to push cargo onto these lanes/services. Deals below existing market levels are available for consistent volume opportunities.
• Space: Very open, allocation requests can be made to carriers for high volume weeks or projects with a high probability of acceptance.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight. The only pocket shippers should monitor are IPI’s where chassis availability may be low.
• Recommendation: book 1-2 weeks prior to CRD on all coastal to Asia-based port lanes, and book 2-3 weeks prior to CRD on all inland to Asia and feeder port lanes.

North America → Europe

• Capacity from the USEC is available, while certain services from the USWC and Gulf remain tight but stable.
• Most USEC to N. Europe (NEU) and Mediterranean (MED) services have low capacity utilization levels with no space constraints.
• Gulf Coast to NEU and MED services continue to have medium to high utilization levels as the market has seen a reintroduction of capacity. Still there are some inconsistencies in the schedules from the Gulf.
• The USWC to NEU, MED services are still limited in options and therefore utilization levels are artificially high.
• Rates: Rates trended slightly downward QoQ on USEC to NEU lanes. Carriers made adjustments early in Q1 and since then rates have remained flat. Gulf and USWC rates were not adjusted in Q1 given the utilization levels on those services. Carriers are willing to make deals for USEC opportunities.
• Space: Space is open from USEC, manageable from Gulf, and limited from USWC.
• Capacity/Equipment: no major capacity changes in the market. No major equipment hurdles to highlight in the US, save for pockets of potential chassis issues out of IPI’s.
• Recommendation: book 2 weeks prior to CRD on all EC to NEU, MED lanes, book 3 weeks prior to CRD on all Gulf to NEU, MED lanes, book 4 weeks prior to CRD for all PSW to NEU lanes.

北美船舶停留时间

Air Freight Market Update

亚洲

• N. China: TPEB demand has decreased this week with rates also lowering as well. The FEWB market is showing an opposite trend with both demand and rates increasing from the week prior.
• S. China: TPEB supply is tight with demand increasing in the market, resulting in rates increasing from the week prior. The Far East Westbound (FEWB) market is following at a similar trend but at a slower pace. As demand increases, expect longer booking times at origin.
• Taiwan: The market is picking up as we approach the quarter end. Rates are increasing while capacity is getting tighter.
• Korea: Rates remain the same as the previous week with no large increases in market demand.
• SE Asia: Quarter-end TPEB demand in northern Asia is causing rates to increase and hub capacity to tighten. The FEWB market remains stable.

欧洲

• TAWB demand continues to fluctuate between point pairs Ex EU and UK, this is reflected in the rate levels increasing and decreasing week over week.
• There is sufficient capacity available in the market, however, expect longer lead days for direct routing. Where possible indirect options via secondary hubs are providing shorter lead days and better rates.
• No operational disruptions reported in EU & UK.
• For all lanes: Continue to place bookings early to secure best uplift options/routings. If the lead time can take a deferred option via a secondary hub, bookings could benefit from lower rate levels.

美洲

• Export demand remains steady from all markets.
• US airports are running at a normal pace.
• Capacity is opening up further, especially into Europe.
• Rates remain stable week over week.

Trucking & Intermodal

欧洲

• Inland waterway shipping, or in short barging, is becoming more and more the transport modality of choice for moving containers from the Rotterdam Ocean Port to the ‘Hinterland’, not only into the Netherlands but also cross border to Germany and Switzerland.
• There is an expectation that container transport to and from the main port of Rotterdam will grow significantly over the next 20 years. If this growth is accommodated by road transport, our roads will become completely blocked. There is a lot of unused capacity in the system of inland waterways and inland shipping is capable of transporting large volumes. Compared to transport by lorry or plane, inland shipping produces far less CO2. Moreover, inland shipping accidents are rare.

美洲

Import/Export Market Trends

• Congestion is improving at Canadian ports and rail ramps, there are no significant operational delays.
• CP Vaughan Intermodal Terminal is an exception where truckers, at time, are still experiencing 4-6 hours of waiting time.
• CN continues shuttling containers from Brampton terminal to the CN Misc terminal, charging $300 per container.
• Memphis, Houston, Detroit, Savannah, and Oakland are seeing some delays and import dwells > 10 days.
• The port of Houston will be discontinuing Saturday operations at Bayport + Barbours cut on April 29th.
• Congestion fees will no longer be active, effective March 1.
• Majority of US ports and rail ramps are fluid, and not experiencing any significant delays.
• Highway Diesel have remained relatively stable YTD.

US Domestic Trucking Market Trends

• The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures contract tender volumes across all modes, was down 25% year-over-year (3.3% month-over-month), or 9.6% when measuring accepted volumes after the significant decline in tender rejection rates. ‘
• In addition to this, the Cass report indicated year-over-year volumes were down 3.9% in December after falling 3.3% month-over-month from November. This trend illustrates shipment volumes are declining compared to last year, but much more gradually.
• The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply; the higher the index, the tighter the market conditions.
• Throughout December, trends closely followed this curve, indicating that market pressures were consistent with average historical trends. Looking forward, we expect to see softening through at least February as seasonal demand eases in the first two months of the year.

Customs and Compliance News

Next COAC Meeting Scheduled

CBP’s Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee (COAC) will next meet March 29, 2023 in Seattle, CBP said in a notice. The trade community can submit comments, which are due in writing by March 24, 2023.

UFLPA Interactive Dashboard Announced

On March 14, 2023, Acting CBP Commissioner Troy Miller announced a new Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) interactive dashboard. The statistics provided on this dashboard include shipments subject to UFLPA reviews or enforcement actions. This dashboard shows the commodity type found in detained shipments and their country of origin.

Freight Market News

Maersk Returns to Ukraine With Container-on-Barge Service

After ceasing operations in Ukraine, Maersk announced a return to service via freshwater ports along the Danube estuary in the northern part of the country. The shallow-draft terminals have operated relatively smoothly throughout the year, so Maersk has implemented container-on-barge services via the Constanta/Danube Channel and the Black Sea with a transit time of approximately a day and a half.

来源于 Flexport.com