Freight Market Update:2023 年 6 月 28 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [地区最新消息--法国]影响勒阿弗尔和福斯-苏-梅尔港口业务的劳工行动已经缓和下来,大部分业务照常运行--尽管情况可能会有意外的变化。
  • [区域更新--荷兰、德国、英国] 跨大西洋航空市场保持稳定,需求不大,运力充足,主要枢纽的运营正常--HR、AMS和FRA枢纽没有发生中断。
  • [地区更新--台湾]许多涉及半导体、电子和工业机械领域的台湾企业正在考虑扩大在菲律宾的能力。由于新的人工智能发展对芯片制造提出了更高的要求,半导体行业尤其持续增长。
  • [区域更新--中国大陆]海运能力可用,全国各地的运量都在逐步增加,不过一些承运人报告说20英尺集装箱短缺。空运市场目前处于正常水平,但由于我们正在进入传统的淡季,预计市场需求将略有下降。
  • [Regional Update - U.S. -Mexico Border]请在CRD前5-7天预订货物。如果通过拉雷多,需要至少提前48(但最好是72)小时通知,以便安排过境材料和安排过境时间。

北美船舶停留时间

本周新闻

经济学专家表示,降低风险、区域化成为供应链的优先事项

金融时报》商业专栏作家和CNN经济分析师Rana Foroohar在最近的FreightWaves活动中表示,将重点放在重新设计供应链的弹性而不是纯粹的效率上是未来的方向。她还提出了一个警告,即这个过程在速度和影响方面必然会在各行业中有所不同,这与其他行业更广泛的数字化转型相似。

汽车行业变革将引发全新的供应链

向电动动力系统和自主导航系统的转变正在改变汽车行业及其供应链的动态。以早期的半导体制造商为例,他们不像科技行业那样优先考虑汽车公司。这种转变意味着,过去他们是供应商的唯一焦点,而现在汽车制造商越来越发现自己在与完全不同行业的成熟组织竞争。

来源于 Flexport.com

Freight Market Update:2023 年 6 月 21 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [海运 - TPEB] 承运人继续定价,以便在需求疲软和没有实质性旺季的市场上赢得运量,预计运价将继续下降。美国西海岸(USWC)的降价已经放缓,而美国东海岸(USEC)的降价还在继续。
  • [海洋-印度]浮动费率在6月份已经稳定下来。预计7月份将通过承运人的一般费率增长(GRI)实现小幅增长。固定费率的签约水平高于浮动费率,但即将到来的一般费率增长可能使两者持平。
  • [海运-拉美]由于需求疲软和海运公司部署新的服务或在现有服务轮换中增加额外的运力,开放了运力,由于供不应求,对费率造成了压力。预计这种情况将持续到第二季度。
  • [卡车运输--美国国内]合同遵守情况处于历史最高水平,这一点从低于3%的历史最低投标拒绝率可以看出--这表明承运人愿意接受大多数合同货物。
  • [卡车运输--美国进口/出口]美国湿港基本上保持畅通,大多数港口的卡车周转时间低于一小时。铁路港口也基本保持畅通,但由于多趟列车抵达和高于平均水平的街道停留,出现了一些底盘短缺的情况。

北美船舶停留时间

本周新闻
为使ILWU和西海岸港口协议获得工会批准,接下来必须要做的事如下

代表美国西海岸港口运营商的国际码头与仓库工会(ILWU)和太平洋海事协会(PMA)的代表周三宣布,双方已达成临时协议。ILWU的代表补充说,虽然这是一个好消息,并感谢临时劳工部长Julie Su介入,帮助引导谈判取得进展--最终的过程包括全体会员对协议进行投票--这个过程可能需要几个月。

零售商正试图修复他们的供应链预测

在不断努力提高其供应链的敏捷性、灵活性和弹性的过程中,许多零售商正在增加他们的技术支出,这是由大流行病期间经历的波动引起的。通过改善他们预测背后的数据和分析,这些组织正在全面了解他们的客户,这反过来又进一步帮助制定更准确的预测,并帮助他们避免过去几年中困扰许多人的缺货和超额存货。

 

ILWU, US West Coast employers reach tentative deal on new six-year contract

Maritime employers and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) late Wednesday announced they had reached a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract covering all 29 ports along the US West Coast.

 

The deal, subject to ratification by both parties, ends 13 months of contentious negotiations marked by on-again, off-again job actions that disrupted port operations on the coast and diverted growing volumes of cargo to the East and Gulf coasts.

 

“We are…pleased to turn our full attention back to the operation of the West Coast ports,” the ILWU and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) said in a joint statement, noting the new deal “was reached with assistance from Acting US Secretary of Labor Julie Su.”

 

The statement said the parties would not release details of the tentative agreement “at this time.”

 

The contract ratification processes normally takes at least one month.

 

“…The tentative agreement delivers important stability for workers, for employers, and for our country’s supply chain,” Su said in a statement.

 

The joint statement implies that the job actions that began last fall, such as the refusal of some ILWU locals to dispatch sufficient labor in key job classifications or the late dispatching of dockworkers, would come to an end.

 

Talks were entering critical phase 

 

Entering this week, sources told the Journal of Commerce the negotiations had entered a critical phase in which the talks could go either way – a tentative settlement by the end of the week or a possible strike or employer lockout. The importance of this week was demonstrated by the arrival of Su in San Francisco on Monday following a week of labor actions that disrupted port operations up and down the West Coast. Su, after meeting with the ILWU and PMA on Monday, has stayed in the Bay area since, remaining on call as needed.

 

The deal will be met with relief from shippers and retail groups, who expressed constant dismay at the port disruptions and diversion of cargo away from the West Coast over the past year.

 

Uncertainty over the reliability of West Coast labor has had a devastating impact on the region’s market share as retailers diverted a large volume of discretionary cargo to the East and Gulf coasts. The West Coast’s share of US imports from Asia declined from 62% in January-May 2021 to 58.6% during the first five months of 2022 and 56% through the first five months of this year, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global.

 

“The supply chain and economy will benefit greatly from this new contract, and the San Pedro Bay’s role as the most important gateway for trans-Pacific trade will be enhanced,” Mario Cordero, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, tweeted Wednesday night after the deal was announced.

 

来源于 JOC.com

Freight Market Update:2023 年 6 月 14 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [海洋 - TAWB]由于需求持续低迷,产能开放,费率继续下降。预计这一趋势将持续到23年第二季度以后。这种情况意味着设备在欧洲所有主要港口都可以广泛使用--美国和欧洲的拥堵情况都有所减少,加快了集装箱的周转,导致设备的供应更加广泛。
  • [海洋--LANB/LASB]由于几个因素,包括持续的库存过剩、季节性疲软以及巴西、智利和哥伦比亚等主要国家的高通胀率,美洲内部贸易通道的交易量已经疲软。预计会出现反弹,但可能不会达到过去几年的水平。
  • [Ocean - FEWB]预订量仍然持平,但整体趋势正在回升,尽管速度缓慢。高通胀、库存和能源成本加上地缘政治的不稳定,仍然影响着欧洲方面的需求。
  • [亚洲航空] 夏季航班的客运能力增加,使整体运力(货运+客运)相对稳定,同时平均费率也保持稳定。现货市场正在增加,因为承运人和货代不那么急于填补他们的空位。
  • [卡车运输--美国国内]出港招标拒绝指数(OTRI)仍处于历史低位--与19年初COVID-19封锁期间的低点一致--表明有足够的能力满足需求,承运人正在优先考虑合同货运。

北美船舶停留时间

本周新闻
 
美国公布新的航运法案以清理污染和排放物

 

参议员们最近向美国国会提出了两项新法案。第一个法案,即《国际海事污染责任法》,旨在清洁港口社区周围的空气,并将对卸货船只征收污染费。2023年清洁航运法》将为温室气体(GHG)排放的可接受水平设定基线,然后要求到2030年将其减少45%。

畅通的供应链似乎有助于缓解商品通胀

利用白宫经济顾问委员会的最新数据,这篇简短的文章深入探讨了当前通胀形势中涉及的供应链力量。根据纽约联邦储备银行的全球供应链压力指数(GSPCI)以及其他来源,他们的结论是,美国消费者可能期待在未来几个月有一些经济喘息的空间。关于对全球供应链压力指数的另一次深入研究,请参阅Flexport Research最近的评论文章《我们还在那里吗?追踪全球供应链的复苏

来源于FLEXPORT.com

LA-LB vessel backlog cleared as West Coast negotiators remain at bargaining table

Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | Jun 9, 2023, 3:10 PM EDT

 

A vessel backlog that developed earlier this week at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amid a lack of longshore labor was cleared Friday, a sign that progress was being made in coastwide contract negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and maritime employers.

 

Talks between the ILWU and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which represents ocean carriers and marine terminals, continued in San Francisco Friday for a third straight day. That in itself was another positive indicator, sources said, with negotiations hitting the 13-month mark this weekend.

 

Sources said the normal complement of workers – known as “lashers” — who secure the top row of containers on a vessel was dispatched Thursday night and early Friday in Los Angeles and Long Beach, allowing ships to be worked without disruption. The ILWU locals in Southern California refused to dispatch sufficient lashers earlier this week, causing delays that resulted in a backlog of vessels.

 

“It’s good today,” a source close to vessel operations in Los Angeles-Long Beach said Friday. “Our labor (orders) were filled last night and today.”

 

Disruption continues in Seattle, Tacoma 

 

Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said the backlog of container ships that were forced to slow-steam or stop at anchor had cleared by the day shift on Friday. Four vessels scheduled to arrive by midday Friday would most likely go directly to berth, Louttit said.

 

Cargo handling in Oakland, meanwhile, was normal for a second straight day.

 

“The Port of Oakland’s marine terminals are open and operating normally (Friday),” a spokesperson for the port said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. ”The number of vessels waiting for a berth in Oakland is five, which is about average.”

 

Operations at Seattle and Tacoma, however, were “still bad” Friday, another source said, as job actions by dockworkers continued. Crane productivity at the Port of Seattle, which plunged to less than 10 percent of normal this week and was only slightly better in Tacoma, remained exceptionally poor on Friday.

 

The PMA said in a statement Friday that Seattle and Tacoma “continue to suffer significant slowdowns as a result of targeted ILWU work actions.”

 

The ILWU declined comment.

 

The fact that the ILWU and PMA held contract negotiations Friday for the third straight day is viewed by sources with knowledge of the talks as a positive sign. In recent weeks, the two sides had been meeting about once per week and were reportedly making little progress, which was demonstrated by the cargo-handling disruptions launched last week by ILWU locals that were intended to pressure the PMA into making concessions on wages.

 

The two sides have been far apart on the wage issue, with the ILWU reportedly demanding an almost 100% increase in the straight-time hourly wage, with the PMA’s offer said to be in the low single-digits.

 

“Even though some port operations have improved, the ILWU’s repeated disruptive work actions at strategic ports along the West Coast are increasingly causing companies to divert cargo to more customer-friendly and reliable locations along the Gulf and East Coasts,” the PMA said in its statement. “It is difficult to win back cargo once it’s diverted.”

来源于 JOC.com

Freight Market Update:2023 年 6 月 7 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [海洋 - TPEB]随着航空公司宣布更多空白航次,运力供过于求。舱位仍然宽敞,运价已降至大流行前的水平。由于干旱条件,预计巴拿马吃水和重量限制可能会对东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的一些航线造成装载限制。
  • [海运 - 印度]所有承运商和航线都有运力,40 英尺设备比 20 英尺设备更容易获得。湿港的位置最佳,有稳定的进口供应,可为出口提供设备。
  • [航空--亚洲]市场趋于稳定,运价仍高于第一季度,而需求在 5 月份有所恢复,我们又回到了 2022 年的水平。由于低廉的销售费率和高昂的燃油成本导致承运商亏损,货机运力正在退役,特别是在 TPEB 上。如果运价和燃油情况没有改善,这种情况将持续下去。
  • [航空-欧洲]在需求持续下降的同时,北美-欧洲航线市场继续双向疲软。美国和欧洲的航空公司正在为夏季航班增加大量运力,5月中旬跌至谷底的运价现在出现了一些企稳迹象。
  • [卡车运输 - 美国进出口]Centerm(温哥华)从 6 月 1 日起对白天拉货收取 68 美元的入场费,对夜间交易收取 18 美元的入场费。阿尔伯塔省的火灾延误了铁路运输,导致温哥华堆场利用率超过 95%。美国湿港基本畅通,大多数港口的卡车周转时间在一小时以内。

 

北美船舶停留时间

 

本周新闻
随着返校和假日订单的开始,零售业旺季的新 "常态 "可能是这样的

返校订单呈上升趋势,许多零售商的库存已经售罄。这对 23 年的旺季意味着什么?这要看你问的是谁--一些物流经理预计,旺季将与 2018-2019 年持平,而另一些物流经理则表示,预计要到 24 年第三季度才会出现 "正常 "旺季。

货物重回美国西海岸港口,但部分货物已永远离去

货运状况趋于稳定,加上近期港口与工会领导层之间的谈判出现积极迹象,使得一些将货物转移到美国东海岸港口的托运人开始谨慎地将部分货物运回西海岸。根据 Descartes Datamyne 的数据,洛杉矶/长滩港的吞吐量同比仍下降了 5%(2019 年第一季度占美国进口的 45%,而今年第一季度占 40%)。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

 

USWC disruptions continue as ILWU flexes power amid wage, manning gap with employers

US West Coast longshore labor is flexing its power to seek significantly higher wages and manning changes that would put two workers rather than one on some port equipment, sources said Monday, continuing a fourth day of disruptions at some marine terminals.

 

Several container terminals were hit with job actions in Seattle, Long Beach and Los Angeles on Monday, according to sources. While the severity of port disruptions on Monday was less than on Friday when dockworkers shut down a number of terminals along the coast from Long Beach to Seattle, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) are still far apart on salary and manning levels, according to four sources close to the negotiations.

 

One operator at a Los Angeles marine terminal said he didn’t receive any of the labor he requested from the ILWU hiring hall on Monday, adding, “We probably will idle the ship today.”

 

A spokesperson for SSA Marine said labor gangs working four vessels in Seattle were fired on Monday because of low productivity on the cranes. SSA, which operates three terminals in Long Beach, said two of the terminals there have not worked an international ship since Saturday.

 

The sporadic ILWU job actions that continued over the weekend have included slowing down ship-to-shore crane productivity from the normal 25 to 26 lifts per crane per hour to about 20 lifts per hour, or even lower.

 

The PMA slammed the ILWU in a statement Monday for continuing “concerted and disruptive work actions.”

 

“Union leaders are implementing many familiar disruption tactics from their job action playbook, including refusing to dispatch workers to marine terminals, slowing operations, and making unfounded health and safety claims,” PMA said. “The ILWU’s coast-wide work actions since June 2 are forcing retailers, manufacturers and other shippers to shift cargo away from the West Coast in favor of ports on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Much of the diverted cargo may never return to the West Coast.”

 

The ILWU declined to comment. But the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) issued a statement saying it “stands in solidarity” with the ILWU, claiming the union has been “disparaged by the PMA through a calculated media campaign designed to boost its contractual leverage at the expense of West Coast dockworkers.”

 

Spokespersons at port authorities said most of their terminals that were affected Friday and over the weekend received full labor allocations for Monday’s day shift.

 

White House monitoring situation

 

During a briefing Monday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the Biden administration was monitoring contract negotiations closely and pointed to both sides tentatively agreeing on undisclosed “certain key issues.” The White House was “going to continue to encourage all parties to work in good faith toward a mutually beneficial resolution that ensures that workers get fair benefits, equality of life and the wages they deserve,” Jean-Pierre said.

 

The job actions taking place on the West Coast in recent days prompted the National Retail Federation (NRF) on Monday to send its third letter to the Biden administration urging federal intervention in the negotiations between the ILWU and the PMA, which represents shipping lines and terminal operators, since the coastwide contract negotiations began in May 2022.

 

“As we enter the peak shipping season for the holidays, these additional disruptions will force retailers and other important shipping partners to continue to shift cargo away from the West Coast ports until a new labor contract is established,” David French, the NRF’s senior vice president of government relations, said in a letter to the Biden administration. “It is imperative that the parties return to the negotiating table. We urge the administration to mediate to ensure the parties quickly finalize a new contract without additional disruptions.”

 

Union seeking significant salary hike

 

Negotiations are said to be hung up over an unprecedented demand by the ILWU for a wage increase of $7.50 per hour for each year of the proposed six-year contract, which would increase longshore wages by close to 100% over the life of the contract. Two sources close to the talks confirmed the union’s wage demand.

 

By comparison, wage increases over the past 20 years have been in the range of 50 cents to $1.50 per hour for each year of the contract, according to the PMA’s annual report.

 

The ILWU is looking to take advantage of the record profits carriers booked in 2021 and 2022 amid pandemic-induced disruption in the global supply chain that came amid historic import levels from Asia and massive consumer spending. But those profits have since diminished as the ocean shipping market returned to normalcy with consumers pulling back on spending their discretionary income on merchandise.

 

The ILWU is also reportedly demanding that certain cargo-handling equipment, such as yard tractors, be assigned to two dockworkers. That has long been a practice with ship-to-shore cranes, which require a higher level of skill. Under the ILWU’s demand, two drivers would be assigned to each yard tractor, which means one longshoreman would work for four hours and get paid for eight, and the second longshoreman would work the remaining four hours of the shift and get paid for eight.

 

Another significant issue in the negotiations involves retroactive pay, sources say. In each contract negotiation, there has been an unspoken agreement between the PMA and ILWU that whatever wage increase is agreed upon in the new contract, it would be retroactive back to the expiration of the previous contract, a source told the Journal of Commerce. That means the PMA and ILWU have been operating under the assumption that the wage increase being discussed for the new contract would be retroactive to July 1, 2022, when the prior deal expired.

 

But with negotiations now past the one-year mark, the PMA has reportedly told the ILWU that retroactive pay will be off the table as of July 1 if a tentative contract is not reached by then, according to the source. That PMA strategy is designed to provide a sense of urgency so the ILWU will reach an agreement soon rather than dragging the negotiations out further, the source said.

 

Terminal operators told the Journal of Commerce that if ILWU job actions stopped and cargo handling went smoothly Monday, coastwide negotiations between the union and PMA would resume on Tuesday. But it’s uncertain if that will happen now.

Freight Market Update:2023 年 5 月 31 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [地区最新情况 - 欧洲]在意大利,舱位供应情况良好,海运费水平稳定。空运方面,随着夏季的临近和更多航班的安排,运力略有增加。
  • [地区最新情况--欧洲] 在法国,影响勒阿弗尔港和滨海福斯港运营的罢工已有所缓解,运营照常进行。
  • [地区更新 - 拉美加勒比地区]哥伦比亚、秘鲁和智利的标准航空服务从预订到预计起飞时间(ETD)为 3-4 天;阿根廷为 7-10 天。巴西的标准航班从预订到起飞平均需要 2 到 4 天,但会因航空公司和航线的不同而有所差异。
  • [区域更新 - 拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区]美国 - 墨西哥跨境:请在货物读取日期(CRD)前 5-7 天预订货物,新拉雷多边境偶尔出现的安全问题可能会导致过境桥梁临时关闭,恶劣天气也会导致转运时间增加。
  • [地区最新情况 - 中国大陆]疫情过后的重新开放工作正在进行,预计将持续到今年余下时间。海运能力广泛可用,空运业务运行平稳。

 

北美船舶停留时间

本周新闻
美国公司近岸外包趋势升级

墨西哥已超过中国,成为美国最大的贸易伙伴,占贸易总额的 16.1%。根据此处引用的 UberFreight 研究报告,近岸化,或将生产等海外业务转移到附近国家的趋势正在加快。包括对 Flexport 最近一篇关于拉雷多崛起为美国第一大货物入境口岸的文章的引用,以及我们的首席经济学家菲尔-利维(Phil Levy)的几段话。

世界最大集装箱船抵达安特卫普布鲁日港

地中海邮轮洛雷托号于4月19日从宁波启航,将于5月28日停靠费利克斯托港。本周,该轮停靠在安特卫普布鲁日港,是停靠该港的最大船舶。洛雷托号 "及其孪生兄弟 "MSC Irina "号的运载能力为 24,346 个标准箱,长 400 米,宽 61 米。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

Freight Market Update:2023 年 5 月 17 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [海洋 - TAWB]由于运力稳步增长,需求仍低于2021-2022年的水平,两岸的总体空间是可用的。随着更多的船只和承运人进入市场,有大量的供应,航运公司正在寻找额外的货物来填补额外的能力。预计这种情况将持续到2023年第二季度以后。
  • [海洋-拉美]由于多种因素,美洲内部贸易通道(LASB/LANB)的交易量全面走低:库存过剩、季节性疲软、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚等主要国家的高通胀率以及总体需求疲软。
  • [海洋 - FEWB]空白的航行和滑动的船只减少了每周从亚洲出发的运力,以平衡低需求。该贸易的现货价格已经下降,与FAK价格之间的差距很小。
  • [Air - Asia]货机运力正在退役,特别是在泛太平洋地区,因为他们在低卖价和高燃料成本下亏损。如果费率和燃料成本没有改善,这种情况将继续下去。在第三季度产品推出和经济改善的推动下,需求预计会回升。
  • [区域更新-印度]印度/斯里兰卡/孟加拉国/巴基斯坦的航空空间可用,时间表可靠,海洋空间可用,时间表可靠,卡车运输正常运行,设备广泛可用。

N.美国船只停留时间

本周新闻
卡车运输可能--也许--变得不那么波动了

托运人厌倦了过去几年卡车运输业的持续波动,开始进行反击。他们正在变得咄咄逼人,但不是像许多人所期望的那样,选择最低的投标人。相反,他们正在追求诸如 "准时、完整 "的服务水平指标。根据他们自己的Sonar数据,Freightwaves研究了这一点,再加上更恒定、全年的招标季节,如何使卡车运输的趋势对托运人有利。

Flexport连续第三年入选CNBC颠覆者50强名单

在过去的11年里,CNBC将50家初创企业列入其 "颠覆者50 "名单。这些公司被选中是因为他们的雄心和尖端技术,当然,他们被选中也是因为他们正在追逐各自行业中的最大机会。Flexport在2022年名列榜首后,连续第三年自豪地跻身其中,位列第10位。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

Freight Market Update:2023 年 5 月 10 日

值得关注的趋势

  • [海洋-TPEB]利用目前浮动市场的软条件(低费率,开放空间,全面的)。考虑利用优质服务,因为它们已经恢复了出色的运输时间表现。
  • [东西行航线上,劳动节前的需求依然平淡--订舱量略有增加,又进一步下降。高通胀、高库存、能源成本和地缘政治不稳定仍然影响着欧洲端的需求。现货价格也在下降。
  • [航空-跨大西洋] 市场继续双向疲软,需求继续下降。美国和欧洲的航空公司将为夏季航班增加大量运力,在产品推出和经济状况改善的推动下,随着需求回升,预计第三季度运量和运价都将回升。
  • [航空]客运能力继续恢复,预计夏季欧洲、北美和亚洲的客运能力将大幅增加。增加的腹舱容量可能会影响第三季度的费率。
  • [卡车运输-美国国内]衡量所有模式的合同招标量的FreightWaves SONAR出港招标量指数(OTVI)同比下降25%(月环比下降3.3%),在招标拒绝率大幅下降后,衡量接受的招标量则为9.6%。

 

来自Flexport.com的课程