值得关注的趋势

[飓风米尔顿观察]

• 预计飓风将在佛罗里达州西海岸，特别是坦帕湾地区造成大范围的洪水和破坏。
• 虽然港口一般都能抵御飓风，但很可能会出现设备损坏、集装箱被吹翻以及风暴潮和洪水造成的破坏。
• 风暴过后 24-48 小时，美国墨西哥湾沿岸港口将开始进行港口评估。坦帕港在 10 月 8 日星期二暂停了所有进出港船只的运输。

[海关]

• 美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）对正式入境货物（货币价值超过 2500 美元的货物，或商业纺织品货物（服装/材料），无论价值多少）征收的商品处理费（MPF）于 10 月 1 日上调。其中，最低费用从 31.67 美元增至 32.71 美元，最高费用从 614.35 美元增至 634.62 美元，从价税率保持不变，仍为 0.3464%。
• 此外，还可在此处查看其他费用的增长情况。
• 在加拿大，加拿大边境服务局（CBSA）的评估和税收管理系统（CARM）将于 10 月 21 日（星期一）启用。在该系统中，进口商可以向加拿大边境服务局支付关税和其他税款。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 港口罢工解决后，需求保持平稳。市场运力继续供不应求，在美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸港口清理积压船只期间，预计不会出现舱位紧张的情况。
• 随着 ILA 罢工的暂停和集装箱业务的恢复，远洋承运商已经免除或取消了东部/海湾沿岸的紧急拥堵附加费。
• 固定费率和旺季附加费 (PSS) 在 10 月上半月将保持不变。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 自黄金周假期后恢复运营以来，恢复速度一直很慢，不过，据报道，在市场上已公布的空白航次中，班轮的利用率很高。
• 由于黄金周假期的缘故，浮动运价已冻结两周，预计班轮公司将继续主动审查运价，以优化船舶利用率。
• THE Alliance 已经宣布了 11 月份的三个空航，而 2M 和 Ocean Alliance 仍在评估他们的选择。如果复苏继续滞后，从远东到欧洲的需求仍然平平，可能会推出更多的空航，以更好地管理供需关系，防止市场进一步崩溃。
• 设备短缺问题已基本解决，但一些直接靠港较少的装货港（POL）由于改道途经好望角（COGH），偶尔仍会出现设备短缺。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 国际航协的罢工于 10 月 4 日结束，预计将造成 2 至 3 周的订票积压。罢工结束后，大多数承运商取消了中断收费。此外，蒙特利尔的罢工也已结束，运营恢复正常。
• 许多客户已将货物转向经由加拿大或美国西海岸的服务，以避免美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸港口持续的延误和拥堵。
• 承运商预计 10 月份的运力会减少，但这在很大程度上取决于美国东海岸主要港口的运营和延误情况。底盘和卡车也可能出现短缺。建议查看各承运商的滞留和滞期费 (D&D) 申请规则。

[海洋 - 美国出口]

• 受国际航运联盟罢工影响的港口和码头已恢复运营，预计新的预订量将激增。这可能会造成货物积压，并可能持续到 10 月底和 11 月。

[印度次大陆和北美］

• 美国东海岸的劳资纠纷暂时得到解决，市场继续走软。远洋承运商最初计划在 10 月下半月提高美国东海岸和美国西海岸的运价，但现在所有这些计划都已取消。
• 随着需求的下降，美国东西海岸的运力都已开放，但美国东海岸的可用运力明显多于美国西海岸。
• 此外，ZIM 还与地中海航运共同运营 INDUSA 和 INDUS EXPRESS 航线，这两条航线之前是独立运营的。这些航线主要集中在印度至美国东海岸的航线上，由于五月份以来新推出的船舶共享协议和服务，这些航线的运力达到了历史最高水平。

[空中 - 全球］ 2024 年 9 月 23 日星期一至 9 月 29 日星期日（第 39 周）：

• 随着人们对旺季的预期开始升温，9 月份的房价和需求量也随之激增。
• 全球需求反弹（周环比）：九月的最后一周，全球计费重量周环比增长+2%，从前一周因节假日而下降-2%有所回升。在亚太地区（+6%）、中美洲和南美洲（+4%）以及中东和南亚（MESA，+2%）显著回升的推动下，第 39 周的吨位比去年同期高出约 +10%。
• 价格上涨（同比）：全球平均汇率环比增长+1%，达到每公斤 2.61 美元，同比增长+10%。全球现货价格上涨了 4%（和值），达到每公斤 2.86 美元，比去年高出 20%。值得注意的是，亚太地区和中东和非洲地区的现货价格同比分别上涨了 26% 和 +86%。
• 孟加拉国市场混乱：由于持续的政治和物流挑战，9 月份孟加拉国至欧洲的货运量同比下降了 -15%，而现货价格仍保持在每公斤 5.11 美元的高位，同比增长了 138%。孟加拉国至美国的货运量同比激增 50%，现货价格一直保持在每公斤 7 美元以上，是去年同期水平的三倍多。
• 第三季度增长：与第二季度相比，第三季度全球计费重量增长了 +1%，年同比增长了 +11%。费率也环比增长了 +1%，同比增长了 +10%，这主要是受亚太和中东及非洲市场的推动，预计随着第四季度旺季需求的增加，这两个市场仍将举足轻重。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

网络研讨会

北美Freight Market Update Live

(今天）10 月 10 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 东部时间下午 12:00

柔性海运及时性指标

从中国到美国西海岸、中国到北欧以及中国到美国东海岸的 OTI 已达到一个高峰。

至 2024 年 10 月 7 日的一周

本周，中国至美国西海岸、中国至北欧和中国至美国东海岸的海运时效指标（OTIs）均未出现任何变化。由于美国港口罢工暂时告一段落，它们分别保持在 37 天、67 天和 59.5 天。

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[国际法协会罢工观察]

• 国际码头工人协会（ILA）已正式发起全海岸范围的罢工，关闭了从缅因州到得克萨斯州的主要港口。承运商已经开始对某些船只宣布不可抗力。
• 在为期六年的新合同中，国际劳联要求每年每小时加薪 5 美元，这相当于在新合同期内加薪 77%。工会还坚决反对自动化。
• 乔-拜登总统于 10 月 1 日发表声明，敦促 USMX "向工人提出一个公平的报价"。
• 在我们的实时博客上获取实时更新，并注册参加我们即将于明天（10 月 4 日）举行的由首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 主讲的网络研讨会。他将讨论 ILA 罢工的最新进展、其对全球航运和美国经济的影响，以及企业为迅速适应这种快速变化的形势可以采取的策略。
• Flexport 将继续及时提供最新信息，并与我们的客户密切合作，尽量减少中断。

[海关]

• 美国海关和边境保护局继续正常开展工作。
• 海关及边境保护局希望贸易界在持续停工的情况下仍能遵守法规，并在必要时处理因货物运输中断而导致的分流。
• 为了解决与受影响港口有关的问题，海关及边境保护局还在华盛顿特区设立了一个紧急行动指挥中心。
• 有关最新警报和更新，请参阅CSMSpage 。
• 海关及边境保护局官员还建议贸易成员向贸易关系办公室（tradeevents@cbp.dhs.gov）提出任何具体询问。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 为应对 ILA 罢工，一些受益货主 (BCO) 正在将部分货量转移到美国西海岸（或经由美国西海岸），作为应急计划。一些承运商还考虑，如果 ILA 罢工持续下去，将在 10 月中旬实施东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸港口附加费。
• 承运商在黄金周后宣布了港口拥堵附加费、滞留和滞期费 (D&D) 指示以及码头状态更新。这可能导致运营进一步中断、港口拥堵加剧以及东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸船期的船舶调配挑战。根据停工时间的长短，产地还可能出现设备短缺。
• 浮动费率已延长至 10 月中旬。码头宣布限制经由洛杉矶前往东海岸码头的订舱，导致承运商暂停订舱。
• 固定费率：旺季附加费 (PSS) 将保持不变，直至十月黄金周。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 由于中国正值节假日，需求呈下降趋势，导致船只供应量增加，承运商积极寻找货源。
• 十月上半月，浮动利率继续下降。受假期放缓的影响，现货价格在过去两周保持稳定。承运商现在更加积极地调整费率，以优化船舶利用率。
• 虽然设备短缺问题已基本解决，但一些直接靠港较少的装货港（POL）仍可能因改道途经好望角而偶尔出现设备短缺。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 所有承运商都宣布，如果停工持续下去，将收取中断费。
• 如果停工持续到 10 月 10 日，大多数承运商将执行这些收费，尽管地中海航运公司（MSC）已于 10 月 1 日执行了收费。
• 此外，加拿大公共雇员工会 (CUPE) 地方 375 在蒙特利尔港发起了 72 小时的罢工，罢工于 10 月 2 日上午结束。罢工影响了通过加拿大的替代路线。
• 与此同时，美国西海岸的服务仍在继续。

[空中 - 全球］ 2024 年 9 月 16 日星期一至 9 月 22 日星期日（第 38 周）：

• 全球货运吨位下降：第 38 周（2024 年 9 月 16-22 日），全球航空货运吨位周环比下降-3%，这主要是由于中国、韩国和智利等主要市场的秋季节日和国家假期所致。
• 亚太地区的主要影响：亚太地区的吨位下降了 6%，占全球降幅的 73%。这主要是由于受到中秋节假期的影响，韩国（占该地区降幅的 50%）和中国（占 30%）的降幅分别为-33%和-6%。
• 中美洲和南美洲的假期：中美洲和南美洲（CSA）的吨位下降了 6%（约合旧币），其中智利的独立日假期（9 月 18-20 日）导致吨位下降了近 50%（约合旧币），占全球降幅的 12%。
• 运价保持强劲：尽管吨位下降，但全球运价与上年同期持平，亚太地区（+1%）和中东及南亚地区（MESA，+4%）的运价显著上涨。由于政治和物流方面的挑战，中东和南亚地区的即期运价环比飙升了 96%，孟加拉国至美国的运价环比上涨了 213%。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

柔性海运及时性指标

中国至美国西海岸和中国至北欧的 OTI 大幅下降，而中国至美国东海岸的 OTI 则有所上升。

Week to September 30, 2024

本周，中国至美国西海岸和中国至北欧的海洋适时指数（OTI）分别从39天降至37天和70.5天降至67天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸的 OTI 从 58 天增加到 59.5 天，港口罢工可能导致未来几周的 OTI 进一步增加。

 

 

来源于 Flexport.com

 

 

值得关注的趋势

[国际劳联停工观察]

• 如果代表美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸集装箱港口 45,000 名工人的国际码头工人协会 (ILA) 和代表该地区码头工人雇主（包括承运人、海运码头运营商和港口协会）的美国海运联盟 (USMX) 未能在 9 月 30 日截止日期前敲定新的主合同，工会打算在 10 月 1 日开始停工。
• ILA 停工可能会破坏美国的供应链，甚至导致大流行病级别的瓶颈。除了美国西海岸港口紧张（许多货物将改道该港口）之外，我们还可能看到底盘短缺、卡车运输和空运费率飙升以及其他一些可怕的结果。
• 请参阅我们的实时博客，了解有关情况的全面指南，包括为 Flexport 客户提供的详细指导。在那里，您还会看到我们专家的实时更新。Flexport 将继续及时提供最新信息，并与我们的客户密切合作，在 ILA 可能停工的情况下采取积极行动，提前做好计划。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 海洋网络快线（ONE）最近宣布将于 2025 年 2 月推出新的亚欧、泛太平洋和亚洲-中东贸易航线服务。
• 此外，自 2025 年 2 月起，ONE 将与 HMM 和阳明航空密切合作。它们将共同组成 "卓越联盟"。
• 浮动费率继续下降，并将延长至 9 月底。市场正在进一步下调费率，大多数承运商已经实施了促销费率和子弹费率。由于没有出现黄金周前的典型高峰，运输量保持平稳。
• 鉴于 ILA 可能停工的不确定性，一些 BCO 正在尽可能地将运量从东海岸转移到西海岸。我们看到东海岸的费率下降速度快于西海岸。
• 空白航班影响了 10 月份黄金周第 41 周和第 42 周 22-28% 的运力。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 市场趋势已经发生变化，即期费率正在迅速下降。承运商目前面临的核心挑战是需求放缓。尽管承运商增加了通过好望角的运力，以应对亚欧贸易中不断增长的需求，但需求似乎已达到顶峰。
• 9 月下半月的浮动运价进一步下降，但与 2024 年初相比仍然偏高。承运商正在更加积极地调整运价，以优化船舶利用率。过去两周，上海集装箱运价指数（SCFI）下跌了近 1000 美元/TEU。
• 长期记名账户业务继续面临承运商在空间和设备优先权方面的限制。根据市场的进一步发展，承运商可能会再次开放谈判。
• 设备短缺的情况正在好转，但一些直接靠港较少的装货港（POLs）仍预计某些集装箱类型（如 20'GP 和 45'HCs）可能会出现设备短缺。根据装货港政策和船舶尺寸要求，重量限制，尤其是超重的 20'GP 仍有待接受。
• 作为 2025 年 2 月推出的新产品/服务的一部分，ONE 将与其他卓越联盟成员 HMM 和阳明一起，与地中海航运合作改善亚欧航线的服务。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 在 ILA 停工的情况下，无法保证 100%维持从欧洲到美国东海岸的货运量。承运商会尝试提供经由加拿大的服务，但空间/连接有限，可能无法吸收所有货量。
• 航空公司在北欧和地中海航线上的利用率都很高。9 月份的涨价已经实施，大多数航空公司已经宣布了 10 月份的涨价。
• 我们期待在 2025 年看到承运商在大洋航线上建立新的网络。到目前为止，地中海航运公司和双子星合作公司已经宣布了新的远洋网络方案。
• 德国东南部和腹地某些地区的设备短缺问题依然存在。在德国港口，目前预计不会再发生停工事件。
• 为保护空间/设备，我们建议提前 2-3 周预订。

[航空 - 全球]（货运更新 2024 年 8 月 26 日星期一至 9 月 1 日星期日（第 35 周）

• 同比增长：2024 年 8 月全球航空货运需求与去年同期相比增长了 10%，运价同比增长了 12%。
• 2024 年 8 月与 7 月的趋势对比：与 2024 年 7 月相比，8 月份的计费重量略有下降（-2%），但平均收益率上升了 1%，达到每公斤 2.49 美元。亚太产地的价格上涨了 +1%，达到每公斤 3.26 美元，中东和南亚（MESA）的价格上涨了 +3%，达到每公斤 2.81 美元。
• 地区价格上涨：亚太地区的运价环比上涨 22%，达到每公斤 3.26 美元；东、南非地区的运价环比上涨 58%，达到每公斤 2.81 美元，尽管 8 月份的吨位略有下降（分别为-3%和-2%）。
• 周环比趋势（第 35 周）：第 35 周（8 月 26 日至 9 月 1 日）的总吨位下降了-1%，由于劳动节假期，北美地区的总吨位下降了-4%。北美地区的运价上涨了 +4%，而运力则下降了 -5%（周环比）。
• 两周对两周（2Wo2W）的变化：将第 34 周和第 35 周合并计算，吨位和运价均增长了 +1%，这主要是由于亚太地区的需求回升了 +5%，其中亚太地区内的运量增长了 +8%，这主要是由于日本、香港和韩国的需求回升。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

网络研讨会

北美Freight Market Update Live

(今天）9 月 12 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 东部时间下午 12:00

驾驭旺季：成功的基本全渠道和履约策略

9 月 17 日星期二 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 美国东部时间下午 12:00

变革海运物流：Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 与赫伯罗特首席执行官 Rolf Habben Jansen 的对话

9 月 19 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 8:00 / 美国东部时间上午 11:00 / 英国夏令时间下午 16:00 / 美国中部时间下午 17:00

驾驭旺季：专家洞察海运和空运趋势

9 月 25 日星期三 @ 太平洋时间上午 10:00 / 美国东部时间下午 1:00

柔性海运及时性指标

中国至美国西海岸和中国至欧洲的 "海洋适时性指标 "趋于平稳，而中国至美国东海岸的 "海洋适时性指标 "则有所上升。

Week to September 9, 2024

本周，中国至美国西海岸和中国至北欧的海洋适时指数（OTI）分别稳定在38.5天和69天。同时，中国至美国东海岸从 57.5 天上升到 59 天。

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[海关]

• 上周五（9 月 13 日），拜登政府发布了一项行政措施，可能会拒绝给予 301、201 和 232 条款所涵盖的所有美国进口产品（包括原产于中国的各种产品）以微量优惠待遇。
• 企业可能会在 "黑色星期五 "前夕（甚至在此之前）看到微量装运货物的额外关税成本和更高的单证要求。
• 短期内，企业可能需要开始为所有产品提供细至 10 位数的 HTS 分类。请在我们的博客上查看我们关于微量行政措施的详细指南，您还可以找到实时更新。
• 此外，上周五，美国贸易代表（USTR）概述了对原产于中国的某些产品征收 301 条款关税的最终修改。
• 根据公众对该机构 5 月 14 日初步公告的评论，将对几类商品征收额外的第 301 条关税。有关这些关税的全面细分，请参阅我们的博客更新--其中部分关税最快将于 2024 年 9 月 27 日实施。
• Flexport 致力于帮助我们的客户了解这些变化。如有任何疑问，请联系您的海关代表CustomsBD@flexport.com。

[国际劳联停工观察]

• 国际码头工人协会 (ILA) 与美国海运联盟 (USMX) 的主合同将于 9 月 30 日到期。如果届时未能敲定新合同，工会打算在 10 月 1 日开始停工。
• ILA 停工可能会破坏美国的供应链，甚至导致大流行病级别的瓶颈。除了美国西海岸港口紧张（许多货物将改道该港口）之外，我们还可能看到底盘短缺、卡车运输和空运费率飙升以及其他一些可怕的结果。
• 请参阅我们的实时博客，了解有关情况的全面指南，包括为 Flexport 客户提供的详细指导。在那里，您还可以找到我们专家的实时更新。Flexport 将继续及时提供最新信息，并与我们的客户密切合作，在 ILA 可能停工的情况下采取积极行动，提前做好计划。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 随着黄金周的临近，我们没有看到黄金周前抢购量上升的迹象。
• 为了应对可能发生的 ILA 停工，我们看到一些 BCO 将货量转移到美国西海岸（或经由美国西海岸）作为应急计划。一些承运商正考虑在 10 月中旬实施东海岸/海湾港口附加费，以应对 ILA 停工。
• 如果发生 ILA 停工，预计承运方将收取附加费、运营中断、港口拥堵，并对东海岸/墨西哥湾沿岸的船期和回程造成影响。此外，根据潜在停工的持续时间，我们可能会看到原产地可能出现设备短缺。
• 浮动费率已延长至 9 月底，并进行了一些微调和进一步缓解。东海岸/海湾地区的附加费可能会在 10 月份由承运商实施，这取决于黄金周后可能出现的 ILA 停工。
• 固定费率：旺季附加费 (PSS) 在 9 月底前保持不变，并将延长至 10 月（直至黄金周）。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 需求正呈下降趋势，而且日渐疲软。九月最后一周的成交量可能会有所回升，但我们预计不会出现任何空间问题。
• 9 月下半月的浮动运价进一步下降，但与 2024 年初相比仍然较高。为了优化船舶利用率，承运商在调整费率方面比以往更加积极主动。上周，SCFI 又下降了 618 美元/TEU；过去三周，SCFI 从 4400 美元/TEU 降至 2841 美元/TEU。
• 长期指定账户业务在空间和设备优先权方面仍面临运营商的限制。承运商正逐渐（但保守地）重新对谈判持开放态度。
• 设备短缺的情况正在好转，但一些直接靠港较少的装货港（POLs）仍预计某些集装箱类型（如 20'GP 和 45'HCs）可能会出现设备短缺。根据装货港政策和船舶尺寸要求，重量限制，尤其是超重的 20'GP 仍有待接受。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 9 月 30 日即将到来，届时 ILA 与 USMX 的合同也将到期。如果不能达成协议，停工可能会从 10 月 1 日开始。承运商尚未宣布应急计划。
• 所有航空公司都在 9 月上半月和下半月上调了机票价格。它们都宣布了 10 月份的类似涨幅。
• 欧洲所有地区以及西地中海和东地中海的承运商利用率都很高。
• 德国东南部和腹地某些地区的设备短缺问题依然存在。
• 我们建议您提前 2-3 周预订，以保护空间/设备。

[海洋 - 美国出口]

• 进入 10 月份，涉及美国东海岸和美国墨西哥湾沿岸港口的基本港口航线费率正在上涨。
• 最早返程日期（ERD）的变化继续给原产地操作序列带来操作上的挑战。
• 依靠支线服务到达最终卸货港（POD）的航线正在失去运力，因为适当的船只正在转向头程运输，而拥堵状况继续恶化支线航线的重复服务能力。
• 为确保最顺利的装货体验，我们建议在沿海港口装货的客户提前 2 周预订，在内陆铁路点装货的客户提前 3-4 周以上预订。

[空中 - 全球］ 2024 年 9 月 2 日星期一至 9 月 8 日星期日（第 36 周）：

• 第四季度的费率因非官方采购、国际劳工协议谈判和持续的红海危机而逐步攀升，这也增加了预期的季节性需求高峰。
• 全球航空货运费率：第 36 周，全球现货平均运价环比上涨 6%，达到每公斤 2.85 美元，同比上涨 30%，其中亚太地区上涨 41%，东、南非地区上涨 101%。
• 全球吨位下降：全球吨位环比下降-1%，主要原因是美国和加拿大的劳动节假期导致北美吨位下降-12%。
• 亚太和亚洲内部市场：亚太地区内的货运量激增了 11%（2Wo2W），从亚太地区到欧洲的货运量增长了 6%，使得全球计费重量增长了 9%，平均运价同比增长了 15%。
• 中东和非洲地区的现货价格：从中东和非洲地区到欧洲的现货价格环比上涨了 7%（达到每公斤 3.42 美元），同比上涨了 116%，其中迪拜（环比上涨了 8%）和孟加拉国（环比上涨了 5%）的现货价格也有所上涨。

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

网络研讨会

驾驭有关 "最低限度进口 "的新行政措施

点击上面的链接观看昨天的网络研讨会点播。

驾驭旺季：专家洞察海运和空运趋势

9 月 25 日星期三 @ 太平洋时间上午 10:00 / 美国东部时间下午 1:00

北美Freight Market Update Live

10 月 10 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 美国东部时间下午 12:00

柔性海运及时性指标

本周，海洋适时性指标出现了一些波动，中国至美国西海岸和中国至欧洲略有上升，而中国至美国东海岸则略有下降。

至 2024 年 9 月 16 日的一周

本周，中国至美国西海岸和中国至北欧的海洋适时指数（OTI）略有上升，分别从38.5天和69天上升至39天和71天。与此同时，中国至美国东海岸的海洋适时指数回落到两周前的水平，从 59 天降至 57.5 天。

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[海关]

• On September 13, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) outlined final modifications to Section 301 tariffs imposed on certain products originating from China.
• We have compiled a list of items subject to the new tariffs—some of which go into effect tomorrow (September 27, 2024). For a detailed breakdown of tariff updates, read our blog.
• Learn more about what’s changing, why it matters, and how these new rules could affect your holiday shipments and supply chain. Don’t miss our webinar for further insights.
• On September 13, the Biden administration issued an executive action introducing significant changes to the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments under $800. This shift could greatly impact U.S. businesses that rely on the $800 de minimis threshold for duty-free goods, particularly those benefiting from exemptions under Section 301, 201, and 232 tariffs.
• Businesses may see additional duty costs and increased documentation requirements for de minimis shipments before year-end.
• In the short term, businesses may be required to start providing HTS classifications down to the 10-digit level for all products. Check out our detailed guide to the de minimis executive action on our blog, where you’ll also find live updates.
• Reach out to our team of trade advisors at CustomsBD@flexport.com to understand how you can mitigate the risks.

[国际劳联停工观察]

• More U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports are extending their operating hours in anticipation of a potential ILA work stoppage on October 1 as part of their contingency plans.
• To help their customers navigate this looming supply chain disruptions caused by the impending work stoppage, more shipping companies have been actively advising their customers to implement contingency measures. For example, multiple carriers, including ONE, Hapag-Lloyd, and others have announced port omissions and cargo discharges at alternate ports along the U.S. East and Gulf coast. Additionally, bookings for export of Dangerous goods (DG) and Reefer cargo have also been restricted.
• Follow our live blog for real-time updates. Flexport will continue to provide timely updates and work closely with our customers to take proactive action and plan ahead in the event of a potential ILA work stoppage.

[Ocean - TPEB]

• Demand remains flat and continues its downtrend leading into and following Golden Week. Ocean freight rates are being extended until October 14 with further rate mitigations, particularly for the U.S. Southwest, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
• In anticipation of a potential ILA work stoppage, some BCOs are shifting volumes to or through the U.S. West Coast as a contingency plan. A few carriers are considering implementing surcharges for East Coast and Gulf Coast ports by mid- to late October if the stoppage occurs.
• Should the ILA work stoppage materialize, expect carrier-imposed surcharges, operational disruptions, port congestion, and vessel deployment issues affecting East Coast and Gulf Coast schedules. There may also be equipment shortages at origin, depending on how long the stoppage lasts.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) will remain unchanged through September, and are expected to extend into October, covering the Golden Week period.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Demand is trending downward, with vessels now open for bookings. Carriers are preparing roll pools ahead of China’s Golden Week.
• Floating rates have continued to decline in the second half of September, as easing demand takes hold. However, rates remain higher compared to early 2024 levels. Carriers are being more proactive in adjusting rates to optimize vessel utilization. The SCFI dropped by $591/TEU in August, and has fallen an additional $1,808/TEU so far in September.
• While carriers are cautiously reopening long-term named account business negotiations, they remain conservative in their approach.
• Equipment shortages are improving overall, though some ports of loading (POLs) with less frequent direct calls still face occasional shortages due to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope (COGH).

[Ocean - TAWB]

• Carriers have announced General Rate Increases (GRIs), Rate Restoration Initiatives (RRIs), and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs), effective October 1st.
• In response to the potential work stoppage on the U.S. East Coast, nearly all carriers have introduced disruption surcharges to cover the additional operational costs associated with the work stoppage. The estimated impact of a potential work stoppage:
• A 1-day strike could take 6 days to clear the backlog.
• A 1-week strike could require 1.5 to 2 months for recovery.
• A 2-week strike could result in a 4-month recovery period.
• No equipment shortages are reported in Southeast Europe (SEU).

[Air – Global] Mon 09 Sep – Sun 15 Sep 2024 (Week 37):

• Worldwide tonnage increase (week on week): Air cargo tonnages increased by +4% in week 37 (Sept. 9-15), driven by +5% growth from the Asia-Pacific, +6% from Central and South America, and a +10% rebound from North America, following Labor Day disruptions.
• Average worldwide rate increase (year on year): Average worldwide rates increased to $2.58 per kilo, up +14% YoY, and more than +50% above pre-Covid levels (September 2019). The Asia-Pacific and MESA regions saw increases of +24% and +56%, respectively, while North America and Europe experienced a decline of -7% YoY.
• Bangladesh to USA spot rates (4 weeks on 4 weeks): Spot rates from Bangladesh to the U.S. have soared to $7.49 per kilo in week 37, more than three times higher than the same period last year (+219%). Rates have remained above $7 per kilo for the past four weeks.
• Dubai to USA tonnage surge (4 weeks on 4 weeks): Tonnages from Dubai to the U.S. surged by around +50% over the past four weeks, with volumes now more than three times their levels last year (+275% in week 37).
• Japan to U.S. spot rate spike (3-month comparison): Spot rates from Japan to the U.S. reached $8.33 per kilo in week 37—their highest level this year—marking a +50% increase since mid-June levels, driven by disruptions from typhoons.

来源： Worldacd.com

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

网络研讨会

Flexport Customs: Duty Optimization Through Tariff Engineering and HTS Classification

Thursday, October 3 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

北美Freight Market Update Live

10 月 10 日星期四 @ 太平洋时间上午 9:00 / 美国东部时间下午 12:00

变革海运物流：Flexport 首席执行官 Ryan Petersen 与赫伯罗特首席执行官 Rolf Habben Jansen 的对话

Available On Demand

柔性海运及时性指标

Stabilization has been the key word for the past few weeks’ Ocean Timeliness Indicator, with minor to no oscillations across the board.

Week to September 23, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has plateaued at 39 days. Meanwhile, China to North Europe showed a slight decrease, falling from 71 to 70.5 days. China to the U.S. East Coast also demonstrated a slight shift, rising from 57.5 to 58 days.

 

 

有关 Flexport OTI 的问题，请直接发送电子邮件至press@flexport.com。

点击此处查看报告全文并了解我们的方法。

本报告内容仅供参考。Flexport 不对本报告中的任何内容作出保证、陈述或担保，因为这些内容是基于我们当前的信念、预期和假设，而由于可能发生的各种预期和非预期事件，我们无法对这些内容作出保证。Flexport 及其顾问或附属机构均不对因依赖本报告所载内容而以任何方式造成的任何损失承担责任。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 来自亚洲的离港量依然强劲，这主要得益于为缓解 5 月至 7 月间高峰期积压货物而增加的装载机运力。不过，由于客户报告的库存水平良好，未来几周的需求可能会有所减弱。由于好望角航线（COGH）以及亚洲和北美港口拥堵，我们观察到结构性空航的可能性尤其大。预计好望角附近的恶劣天气条件将导致美国东海岸航线进一步延误，并对运力构成挑战。积极的一面是，加通湖的水位已经恢复，当地政府得以放宽对巴拿马运河的重量限制。
• 为迎接即将到来的黄金周假期，承运商正在实施影响第 38 周至第 41 周的空航计划，以调整 TPEB 航线的运力。这可能会导致航班时刻或转运时间发生变化，特别是对于转运连接而言，因为空航可能会导致滚转到下一个可用的航班时刻。
• 浮动费率：8 月 31 日，承运商撤销了 9 月 1 日的全面费率上调（GRI）。
• 固定费率：有关旺季附加费 (PSS) 的讨论目前仍保持不变。不过，如果浮动市场继续疲软，固定市场可能会有所变动。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 需求正在放缓，9 月份的可用容量比 8 月份多。如果需求保持稳定，可能需要在最后一刻调整部署，以平衡供需。
• 浮动运价在 9 月上半月进一步下跌，但仍高于 2024 年初的水平。承运商现在更加积极地调整运价，以优化船舶利用率，上海集装箱运价指数（SCFI）在第 36 周下降了 12%，这是 2024 年最显著的变化。
• 长期记名账户业务继续面临承运商在空间和设备优先权方面的限制。
• 虽然设备短缺的情况正在改善，但一些直接靠港较少的装货港（POLs）仍预计特定集装箱类型（如 20'GP 和 45'HCs）可能会出现短缺。此外，重量限制，尤其是对超重的 20'GP 集装箱的限制，仍有待装货港根据其政策和船舶尺寸予以接受。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 目前，我们主要关注的是美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸港口的潜在停工问题。虽然目前还没有官方宣布，但合同将于 9 月 30 日到期。
• 承运商在北欧和地中海航线上都保持了较高的利用率，导致 9 月份的费率上调，预计 10 月份将继续征收旺季附加费 (PSS)。
• 由于西地中海港口的延误，船期可靠性有所下降。
• 在德国南部和东部的某些地区以及内陆地区，设备短缺仍然是一个问题。虽然预计德国港口不会进一步停工，但设备短缺仍是一个挑战。
• 为确保场地和设备的可用性，建议最好提前 2-3 周预订。

[空中--全球]

• 周货运吨位反弹：第 34 周（2024 年 8 月 19-25 日），全球航空货运吨位与前一周相比增长了 +5%，其中亚太地区周环比增长了 11%，这主要得益于日本在台风安比之后环比增长了 91%。
• 地区吨位贡献：亚太地区的复苏占全球反弹的 40%，主要来自韩国（同比增长 16%）、中国大陆（同比增长 7%）和香港（同比增长 3%）。这些地区共占全球吨位增长的 30%。
• 同比增长：根据第 33 周和第 34 周的综合数据，全球航空货运吨位同比增长 9%，其中亚太地区（+11%）、中东和南亚地区（MESA，+10%）、欧洲（+8%）以及中美洲和南美洲（+8%）增长显著。
• 全球费率稳定：全球航空货运平均费率稳定在每公斤 2.51 美元，同比增长 12%。东、南非地区（+59%）和亚太地区（+22%）的费率大幅上涨，而欧洲和北美的费率则分别同比下降了-10%和-9%。
• 孟加拉国和孟加拉的汇率上涨：孟加拉至欧洲的汇率达到每公斤 5.02 美元，同比增长 161%，达到今年的最高水平。印度和斯里兰卡到欧洲的即期汇率也出现了显著的环比增长，分别为 +145% 和 +106%。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

柔性海运及时性指标

中国至美国西海岸的 "海洋适时性指标 "呈上升趋势，而中国至美国东海岸则趋于稳定，中国至欧洲则有所下降。

至 2024 年 9 月 2 日的一周

本周，中国至美国西海岸的海洋适时指数继续上升，从37.5天上升至39天。与此同时，中国至北欧的适时指数呈下降趋势，从 71.5 天降至 69.5 天。中国至美国东海岸的时效稳定在 57.5 天，表明未来几周内有可能上升。

 

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Update on Canada Railroad Labor Negotiations]

• Canada’s two largest railways – Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) – have locked out more than 9,000 workers represented by the Teamsters labor union after contract negotiations broke down.
• This rail stoppage is the result of months of tense negotiations between the railways and 9,300 engineers, conductors, and yard workers. Despite last-minute efforts to reach a deal, talks broke down just before the midnight deadline, leading to the lockout.
• The consequences are huge. Canada’s railways move $1 billion worth of goods daily, and this stoppage could severely disrupt supply chains across North America. The ripple effects could hit industries ranging from agriculture to manufacturing, impacting both the U.S. and Canadian economies.

[Ocean - TPEB]

• Departed volumes remain strong, largely supported by additional extra loader capacity aimed at easing the backlog caused by the cargo rush from May to July. While clients currently report healthy inventory levels, we anticipate a potential softening in demand over the coming weeks. This could be impacted by structurally blank sailings resulting from Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and ongoing port congestion in Asia and North America. Adverse weather conditions around the COGH are expected to lead to further delays and capacity challenges for the U.S. East Coast (USEC).
• On a positive note, water levels at Gatun Lake have recovered, leading local authorities to ease weight restrictions for the Panama Canal.
• Floating rates: the General Rate Increase (GRI) announcement for the second half of August is facing downward pressure as some carriers begin to adjust FAK rates. Major shipping lines are holding off on immediate changes but are closely monitoring the situation, particularly in the face of looming work stoppages.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions remain intense due to the rate gap between FAK and NAC, which currently does not support mitigations.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Demand is stabilizing, with blank sailings and extra loaders at the same time for the end of August. Vessel utilization remains solid, while full capacity will return in September via THEA/2M. This may lead to vessel-filling challenges, should demand remain consistent with August levels.
• Floating rates have begun to decline in the second half of August—a pattern that will extend into early September—though they remain relatively high. Carriers are being more proactive in adjusting rates to better optimize capacity.
• For long-term named account business, carriers continue to restrict space and equipment availability as a priority measure.
• With the equipment shortage improving, some ports with fewer direct calls still anticipate potential shortages of specific container types, such as 20’GPs and 45’HCs.

[Ocean - TAWB]

• Some carriers have tried to increase rates from the Mediterranean for September. Ultimately, they’ve extended them due to the summer slack season, but will try again in October if demand strongly increases.
• Out of North Europe, carriers are pushing hard to increase FAK rates.
• Even though most factories are closed, demand remains stable due to last month’s capacity reduction.
• In general, there are no equipment shortages, except in some German inland depots.

[海洋 - 美国出口]

• Capacity from the U.S. to the Indian subcontinent and Middle Eastern ports has tightened, related to vessel omissions and blank sailings.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final ports of discharge (PODs) are losing capacity as the appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• Challenges related to earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to persist for U.S. exporters.
• 为确保最顺利的装货体验，我们建议在沿海港口装货的客户提前 2 周预订，在内陆铁路点装货的客户提前 3-4 周以上预订。

[空中--全球]

• Northern China’s market has started to pick up on both the FEWB and TPEB due to volume surges across ecommerce, Apple NPI, and other traditional air clients.
• Rates from Hong Kong / South China are stable so far, but we expect an increasingly constrained market in the weeks leading up to peak season.
  Volcanic activity in the Russian peninsula has led to cancellations and tightened capacity this week.
• Taiwan’s market remains congested. Direct space from Taiwan is expensive, but you can find cheaper options transiting via other Asia hubs (Korea, etc.).
• Vietnam’s market has temporarily declined due to heavy congestion associated with the summer holidays. Capacity will tighten again post-holidays (September).
• Capacity from the Indian subcontinent to North America and Europe remains constrained.
• Bangladesh’s operations have returned to normal. The local situation remains volatile, and there is a massive cargo backlog at origin.
• Capacity remains open and demand is stable from North American and European origins.
• Service was disrupted last week by natural disasters. Volcanic eruptions in Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula have released ashes on flight routes, prompting a payload reduction for airlines from Asia to the U.S. and Europe. The situation is back to normal now. This is expected to occur again throughout Q4 2024, as the volcano is still active. A typhoon near Japan last week led to service failures and congestion for Japanese carriers. While more typhoons are anticipated in Asia during this peak season, their impacts are expected to remain localized.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

 

柔性海运及时性指标

Ocean Timeliness Indicator plateaued for China to the U.S. West Coast, while China to the U.S. East Coast and China to Europe showed upticks.

Week to August 19, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator showed a sudden uptick for both China to the U.S. East Coast and China to Northern Europe, increasing respectively from 58.5 to 60 days and 69.5 to 72.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast plateaued at 37.5 days.

值得关注的趋势

[加拿大铁路罢工］

• 在加拿大劳资关系委员会（CIRB）于 8 月 9 日（星期五）做出裁决之前，由卡车司机工会（Teamsters Union）代表的近 10,000 名加拿大铁路工人可能会在下周初举行罢工。
• The dispute involved the Canadian National Railway Company (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC), over issues related to working conditions, wages, and fatigue management.
• Canadian railways transported half of the country’s exports in 2022, totaling more than $276 billion dollars’ worth of goods, according to the Railway Association of Canada.
• A strike or lockout could greatly affect both imports and exports in Canada. Importers and exporters looking to get cargo moving will need to resort to other modes of transport to move their goods. The CIRB will determine what essential services, if any, will be required to move if a stoppage of work goes into effect.
• 许多行业都会受到重大影响，包括严重依赖铁路运输货物的农业部门。
• 货物在国内的运输主要依靠转运和将货物用卡车运到最终目的地。然而，这些解决方案成本高、耗时长，对大多数进口商而言并非长期战略。CN 和 CPKC 都坚定地致力于通过谈判达成协议，防止任何停工事件的发生。

[Ocean - TPEB]

• 泛太平洋航线的运量依然强劲，超过了去年的水平。由于好望角航线（COGH）以及亚洲和北美的港口拥堵，我们的航班出现了结构性空白。由于好望角附近的天气状况，预计前往美国东海岸（EC）的航线将进一步延误，运力将面临挑战。
• 自从额外的装载机 (XL) 空间被注入泛太平洋贸易通道后，我们看到来自中国主要港口的美国西海岸 (WC)，特别是太平洋西南部 (PSW) 的空间压力有所减少。
• 积极的一面是：巴拿马加通湖的水位已经恢复，当地政府也放宽了巴拿马运河的重量限制。
• 浮动运价：船公司继续下调至欧共体、西欧和墨西哥湾沿岸的即期运价，以满足供需。已宣布在 8 月下半月全面上调运价（GRI）。
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• THE Alliance announced three more void plans for September due to vessel delays, continuously impacting available capacity in the market.
• 与 6 月和 7 月的市场相比，8 月最后一周和 9 月初的需求略有放缓。浮动费率仍然偏高，而且还有空白船期，船位前景依然紧张。
• 长期指定账户业务仍然受到承运商空间和设备优先权的限制。
• 自 5 月和 6 月以来，设备短缺现象已有所缓解。对于一些直接挂靠较少的装货港 (POL)，我们仍然预计某些集装箱类型（如 20'GPs）可能会出现设备短缺。
• 对于有目标交付日期的紧急货物，我们建议尽快选择高级选项，以获得更早的预计起飞时间（ETD）和设备优先级更高的舱位。

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 地中海和北欧的拥堵状况，加上船期可靠性问题和航班空白，导致 9 月 1 日的票价上涨。
• 德国东南部和腹地某些地区的设备短缺问题依然存在。到目前为止，预计德国港口不会再发生罢工。
• 最令人担忧的是美国可能发生的罢工。
• 为确保最顺畅的装船体验，我们建议北欧以外的预订提前 1-2 周预订，地中海以外在沿海港口装船的预订提前 2-3 周预订。

[海洋 - 美国出口]

• 从美国到印度次大陆、中东港口和北欧港口的运力紧张，这与船只缺失和空航有关。依靠支线服务前往最终卸货港（POD）的航线运力正在减少，因为适当的船只正在转向头程航线，而拥堵状况继续恶化支线航线的重复服务能力。
• Continual changes to earliest return dates (ERDs) present ongoing challenges for U.S. exporters.
• 为确保最顺利的装货体验，我们建议在沿海港口装货的客户提前 2 周预订，在内陆铁路点装货的客户提前 3-4 周以上预订。

[航空 - 全球]航空货运更新 2024 年 7 月 22 日（周一）至 7 月 28 日（周日）（来源：WorldACD

• 全球货运吨位保持稳定，地区之间存在差异：全球航空货运吨位在前一周下降-2%后，在七月的最后一周保持稳定，与六月底相比，总体下降-5%。全球六个主要地区中有四个地区的货运量出现下降，中美洲和南美洲下降了-4%，亚太地区、北美洲和非洲各下降了-1%。与此同时，欧洲和中东、非洲和南美洲分别增长了 +2% 和 +1%。
• 孟加拉国中断的影响：在第 28 周和第 29 周，由于政治抗议和互联网停电，从孟加拉国运往欧洲的吨位下降了 -29%。在第 30 周，货运量反弹了 6%。第 29 周和第 30 周的同比降幅都在 -50% 左右。
• 吨位同比增长趋势：第 30 周全球吨位同比增长 6%，仍低于 2024 年上半年 12%的平均水平。第 29 周和第 30 周合计的年同比增长率为 +7%，表明增长速度可能放缓。据初步估计，7 月份的环比增幅为 +9% 至 +10%。
• 航空货运费率：第 30 周，全球运价小幅下跌-1%，但两周运价保持稳定（2Wo2W）。与去年同期相比，运价上涨了 13%，其中东、南非地区（+55%）和亚太地区（+24%）涨幅较大。全球平均房价比 COVID 前的水平（2019 年 7 月）高出 +45%。
• 地区运价大幅上涨：亚太地区到美国的现货价格在第 30 周下降了-3%，但同比仍上涨了 62%。新加坡到美国的运价超过了每公斤 9 美元，是去年的两倍多。由于需求旺盛而运力有限，孟加拉、斯里兰卡、印度和迪拜的运价涨幅最高。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

柔性海运及时性指标

中国至美国西海岸和中国至美国东海岸的海洋适时性指标保持下降趋势，中国至欧洲的海洋适时性指标保持稳定。

至 2024 年 8 月 5 日的一周

本周，中国至美国东海岸和中国至美国西海岸的"远洋及时性指标 "连续第三周加速下降，分别从60.5天降至58天和39.5天降至38天。

 

 

来源于 Flexport.com

 

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’ve seen less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW), from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand. We’ve seen shipping lines try to stabilize rates for the second half of August by introducing an early General Rate Increase (GRI) announcement.
• Fixed rates: Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) discussions are very intense at the moment, as the gap between FAK rates and NAC rates do not support mitigations, specifically in light of a potential GRI in August.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Port congestion in Asia is improving, but overall on-time performance for Asia-Europe trade remains suboptimal due to reroutings via the Cape of Good Hope. Blank sailings will continue in August. A few extra loaders have been injected into the FEWB to compensate for downsized vessels, and to maintain schedule reliability.
• Demand is strong, and floating rates remain on the higher end. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped slightly over the past two weeks. With blank sailings in place, we’re expecting the floating market to remain critical.
• Long-term named account space remains limited and restricted by carriers for space and equipment priority.
• Equipment shortages have improved a bit since May and June. For some Port of Loadings (POLs) with less direct calling, we still foresee potential equipment shortages for certain container types, such as 20’GPs.
• Port congestion in Netherlands/Belgium, coupled with on-and-off strikes in Germany and France, has impacted terminal operations and last-mile deliveries. We recommend closely monitoring container movements.
• For urgent cargo with a target delivery date, we recommend selecting premium options as early as possible for an earlier estimated time of departure (ETD) and space with higher equipment priority.

[Ocean - TAWB]

• North Europe: Carriers have begun noticing the effects of reduced capacity due to full vessels. Demand remains stable, and some factories on the Northwest of the continent are closed for the months of July and August.
• Congestion in the Mediterranean region remains, with an average wait time of 4-7 days outside of the main ports of Italy and Spain. Also, strikes at ports in Southern Italy have exerted more pressure on certain services. The effects are now being felt in the East Mediterranean, where rates are increasing.
• North Europe: Yang Ming Line announced a GRI for the 1st of September. Mediterranean Shipping Company and Ocean Network Express are considering applying for a PSS in September. The intention is to stop rate deterioration.
• Mediterranean: Carriers already increased their rates for August. No news about new increases in September.
• We expect to see signs of the usual slack season in August starting next week.

[Ocean U.S. Exports]

• Capacity from the Southeastern U.S. has tightened routes to the Indian subcontinent, Middle Eastern ports, and North European ports, amid vessel omissions and blank sailings.
• Service strings relying on feeder services to final Port of Discharge (POD) are losing capacity as appropriate vessels are being shifted to headhaul trades and congestion continues to deteriorate the repeat serviceability of the feeder lane.
• Challenges related to earliest return dates (ERDs) continue to persist for U.S. exporters.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking two weeks in advance for bookings loading at a coastal port, and 3-4+ weeks in advance for bookings loading at an inland rail point.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the COGH, and rising demand have caused freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as yet-to-deploy capacity faces delays around the COGH.
• Large rollover pools have added further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use spot market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• India port issues: Two top ports, Nhava Sheva and Mundra, are facing terminal congestion issues due to heavy rainfall in Mundra, increased volume, and sliding/bunched sailing schedules. Carriers have resorted to early vessel gate closures to properly manage yard utilization and vessel loadings.
• Bangladesh backlog: Due to political protests in Bangladesh, there is a substantial backlog accumulating in the country. Vessels continue to work through this backlog, which is expected to further exacerbate ongoing congestion issues in Colombo, Sri Lanka. This is because over 50% of all cargo coming out of Bangladesh requires a transhipment in Colombo.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Global rate increases amid declining tonnages: Average global air cargo rates rose by +2% in the third week of July 2024 to $2.56 per kilo, despite a third consecutive week of worldwide tonnage declines. This rate is +14% higher than the same week last year, and +47% higher than pre-COVID levels in July 2019.
• Asia-Pacific rate surge: Spot rates from Asian-Pacific origins increased by +2% to $3.34 per kilo in week 29 (July 15-21), marking a +25% increase compared to the same week last year. The rate hike was driven by a +2% rise in average prices, despite a -2% week-on-week tonnage drop.
• Demand and rate dynamics to the U.S.: Rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. increased by +5% in week 29, with average spot prices exceeding $6 per kilo ($6.01), a +67% YoY rise. Chargeable weight from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. rose by +2% WoW and +8% YoY, although tonnages from China to the U.S. fell by -8% YoY.
• MESA to Europe trends: Demand from MESA origins to Europe, while still +15% higher than the same period last year, has cooled from the +30% to +50% levels we saw earlier in the year. Average spot rates from MESA to Europe in week 29 were $3.30 per kilo—more than double (+126%) their levels last year, with significant increases from Bangladesh (+178%), India (+161%), and Sri Lanka (+78%).

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

柔性海运及时性指标

Ocean Timeliness Indicators exhibit a downward trend for China to the U.S. West Coast, China to Europe, and China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 29, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 61 to 60.5 days and 40.5 to 39.5 days, respectively. The OTI for China to Northern Europe also decreased, dropping from 69.5 days to 68 days. The reason? Port congestion on all trade lanes is slightly improving.

 

来源于 Flexport.com

 

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - TPEB]

• Volumes remain strong, exceeding last year’s numbers on Transpacific routes. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia and North America. Due to the bad weather conditions around the COGH, please expect further delays and capacity challenges en route to the U.S. East Coast (EC). Since extra loader (XL) space was injected into the Transpacific trade lane, we’re seeing less space pressure on the U.S. West Coast (WC), specifically the Pacific Southwest (PSW) from China’s main ports.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to reduce rates for the EC and WC to match supply and demand, with more significant pricing adjustments to the WC.
• Fixed rates: So far, shipping lines have not altered the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS), as the gap between NAC and FAK rates remains too large.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Volumes are very strong and exceed last year’s numbers on the FEWB. We’re seeing structurally blank sailings due to Cape of Good Hope (COGH) routings and port congestion in Asia. A few extra loaders were injected into the FEWB in 2H July to compensate for downsized vessels and the extra transit time due to COGH routings.
• Floating rates: Shipping lines have started to increase rate levels and are offering some extra space to adapt to supply and demand.
• Fixed rates: Named account allocation remains very limited. Carriers stopped offering new long-term rate offers back in May; they’re protecting existing named account customers that are performing on a regular basis and offering limited allocation cutbacks in August.
• Equipment situation: Carriers have improved equipment supply, but are still seeing some shortages, specifically for NAC. Carriers are prioritizing high-paying contracts.

[Ocean - TAWB]

• In North Europe, demand is stable and rates are following the same trend. Rate levels are expected to remain stable until the end of September.
• In the Mediterranean, congestion and the delays are forcing blank sailings, which is driving 100% utilization across services. As a result, carriers are increasing rates (in the form of Peak Season Surcharges and General Rate Increases (GRIs)).
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 1-2 weeks in advance for bookings from North Europe, and 2-3 weeks for bookings from the Mediterranean that are loading at a coastal port.

[Indian Subcontinent to North America Update]

• Rates continue to increase due to capacity constraints. Structural and unexpected blank sailings, increased transit time around the Cape of Good Hope, and increases in demand are causing freight rates to surge into 2H July. Rates are expected to continue climbing into August, as no new capacity will be deployed until mid-month.
• Large rollover pools are adding further stress to upcoming sailings. Due to changing vessel sizes and an over-acceptance of bookings on each vessel, ocean carriers are being forced to roll cargo onto the next available sailing—not only delaying your shipments, but also taking away capacity for net-new bookings. As a result, some carriers have temporarily paused bookings to normalize loadings.
• These impacts are being felt differently across service providers, with many smaller providers being forced to use Spot Market booking platforms. (This means that their allotted space has been removed from the vessel plan in the short term.) These freight providers will now have to pay the market rate of over $10,000 per 40-foot container to obtain space.
• New India America Express (INDAMEX) services are expected to bring relief. Both HPL and CMA are launching their own standalone services to support Northwest India and Pakistan. These services will also temporarily support Colombo loadings on the first few sailings to clear accumulated backlogs in Sri Lanka. We can expect space to open up as these carriers, including their co-loaders OOCL and COSCO, will now have greater capacity than in 2023.
• Unrest in Bangladesh: Due to political protests, origin stakeholders have had limited access to the internet, social media, and telecommunications. Due to continued unrest, the Bangladeshi government made 7/22 and 7/23 public holidays. Delays are expected.
• Sri Lanka de-prioritization: Due to ongoing terminal congestion and changing rate levels in neighboring countries, Colombo as a port of loading has been deprioritized with regard to its typical direct sailings. Most carriers are now skipping the direct Colombo call and opting for a transhipment over Singapore for all shipments. This has put pressure on South Indian, Bangladeshi, and Colombo shipments, which typically rely on Colombo as a transhipment hub or port of loading.

[海洋 - 美国出口]

• Ocean rates for Q3 are increasing in corridors of the U.S. export market due to rising demand in global container markets.
  Congestion at critical transhipment hubs is reducing effective capacity for U.S. exporters.
• Navigating ever-changing earliest return dates (ERDs) has become increasingly challenging due to current market congestion.
• To ensure the smoothest loading experience, we recommend booking 3-4 weeks in advance for shipments loading at a coastal port, and 4+ weeks in advance for shipments loading at an inland rail point.

[Air – Global] (Source: WorldACD)

• Slight decline in worldwide tonnages: In week 28 (July 8-14, 2024), there was a -1% drop in global air cargo tonnages, with Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Africa experiencing declines of -5%, -2%, and -5%, respectively. Meanwhile, North America and Central and South America saw increases of +6% and +4%, respectively.
• Decrease in average worldwide rates: The average worldwide air cargo rate decreased by -1% to $2.50 per kilo in week 28, which is still +11% higher year-on-year (YoY) and +44% higher than in July 2019. Asia-Pacific and MESA origins saw significant year-on-year rate increases of +23% and +51%, respectively.
• Spot rate analysis: Spot rates from various East Asian origins to Europe decreased in week 28, with Thailand and Taiwan experiencing drops of -16% and -11%, respectively. Conversely, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan saw increases in spot rates to Europe of +7%, +5%, and +3%, respectively, despite a -8% fall in tonnages from Hong Kong.
• Stable U.S. spot rates from the Asia-Pacific: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the U.S. remained stable in week 28, with significant year-on-year increases of +63% from China and +38% from other Asian-Pacific origins.
• MESA to Europe trends: High tonnages and price levels from MESA to Europe continue due to Red Sea disruptions. In week 28, MESA to Europe demand dropped by -7%, but spot rates remained substantially higher than last year’s rates, with Dubai, India, and MESA seeing respective increases of +17%, +82%, and +16% in tonnages, and spot rates up by +126% since last year. India to Europe spot rates were $3.49 per kilo, up +158% YoY, while Bangladesh to Europe rates held firm at $4.25 per kilo.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

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August 8 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

柔性海运及时性指标

Ocean Timeliness Indicators stabilize for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to Europe, while decreasing for China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to July 22, 2024

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to the U.S. West Coast have decreased, falling from 62 to 61 days and from 41 to 40.5 days, respectively. Meanwhile, the OTI for China to Northern Europe increased, rising from 69 days to 69.5 days. The reason? European port congestion is nearing pandemic highs, while previous delays caused by extreme weather around the Cape of Good Hope pose ongoing challenges.

 

 

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