Trends To Watch
- [Ocean – TPWB] Rates for December are expected to increase following a heavy blank sailing program implemented by ocean carriers in November. Space is tight on some key services to the US East Coast due to blank sailings, but differentiated services and carriers are available in the market to avoid delay. US West Coast services shared with the TPEB market are seeing a high utilization rate due to a demand increase from China and South East Asia.
- [FEWB] The market remains flat and capacity will be slightly impacted due to the vessel deployment change, and in some cases suspension, in South East Asia. We expect rates to drop slightly but liners are still planning for a General Rate Increase (GRI) in December (Quantum from $500-700 to $400-600 increment per different carriers per latest update; more to follow). Plus, one more blank sailing was announced by the Ocean Alliance in the past week while THE Alliance (THEA) announced FE5 suspension from week 46 until further notice but added Cai Mep Facilities and Far East – Europe 3 (FE3) service. In other news, CMA-CGM announced taking out Cai Mep on FAL3 from week 48 plus the Winter Program from 2M Alliance (Maersk + MSC). Market capacity will still be down by at least 20% through November, but vessel utilization has improved. If there are any further changes, carriers will announce more void plans to support the rate increment and so far no further capacity cut announced so assuming the GRI will not hold plus the holidays are approaching.
- [MED trade] Following North Europe, MED GRI started with a $700-800 increment and the same action will be applied for December. No further void plan has been announced for MED, but utilization is not as ideal as liners expected. Freight of All Kinds (FAK) rates may drop further in the second half of November, and we expect a cargo rush prior to the December GRI being implemented in the last week of November. Same as EUR trade, December GRI may not hold.
- [Air – TPEB and FEWB] A surge in holiday demand for consumer goods has led to a critical shortage of capacity for air freight routes from Hong Kong and Vietnam to the US and Europe. The situation has been exacerbated by a series of freighter cancellations in the past week, leading to a tightened market. As a result, spot market prices for air freight have increased dramatically, with a 30% rise in rates from Hong Kong to the US since the beginning of November. Additionally, a severe snowstorm in Anchorage, Alaska, in early November disrupted air traffic, causing delays and cancellations. This has prompted several Asian carriers to place embargoes on new bookings and cancel several flights. Compounding these difficulties, a volcanic eruption near the Kamchatka Peninsula has sent volcanic ash into the atmosphere, leading to further cancellations of eastbound and westbound flights.
Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.
North America Vessel Dwell Times
The Week In News
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