Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• U.S.-China Tariff Developments: In an October 10 Truth Social post, President Trump stated that he intends to impose a 100% tariff on China beginning November 1, “over and above any tariff that they are currently paying.” President Trump also indicated plans to impose export controls on critical software. These measures await official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
  • Just two days after his initial post, President Trump appeared to soften his stance in a follow-up Truth Social post: “Don’t worry about China … Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.”
  • At an October 15 news conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a potential extension of the 90-day U.S.-China tariff truce, which is set to expire on November 10. If President Trump proceeds with implementing a 100% tariff on China on November 1, however, the two nations will face a tighter timeline for reaching an agreement. According to Bessent, a deciding factor is whether China delays or scraps upcoming export controls on rare earth metals, which remain a long-standing point of contention in U.S.-China trade talks.
  • It is currently unclear whether President Trump and President Xi will meet as planned at South Korea’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum at the end of October. While President Trump stated on October 10 that “there seems to be no reason” to proceed with the meeting, Bessent indicated a few days later that these plans are still in place.
  • According to a recent U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) notice, the U.S. will impose a 100% duty on certain Chinese ship-to-shore cranes and cargo handling equipment on November 9.
• U.S.-China Vessel Fee Developments: On October 14, the U.S. implemented port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels. On the same day, China implemented countermeasures on American vessels calling at Chinese ports.
  • Chinese vessel owners and operators calling at a U.S. port now face a fee of $50 per net ton, while Chinese-built ships are subject to the greater of an $18 per net ton fee or a $120 per container fee. These fees will increase over time, in line with a set schedule. Check out our blog for more, including scheduled fee increases and potential exemptions.
  • Per USTR guidance, the burden is on the vessel operator—not U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—to determine whether their vessel owes a fee. The USTR also indicated that vessels subject to fee modifications, including Liquified Gas Carriers and roll-on/roll-off vessels, may defer fee payments until December 10.
  • Chinese countermeasures: Any vessel owned, operated, or built in the U.S. faces a fee of CN¥400 (~$56) per net ton when berthing at a Chinese port. These retaliatory fees are set to increase in line with the U.S.’s fee schedule.
• U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: The shutdown recently entered its third week. CBP has confirmed on trade calls that the flow of cargo and passengers continues as normal, and CBP’s budget and staff are unaffected by the shutdown. CBP has confirmed that it will not issue any refunds during the shutdown, including any ACH or check refunds, drawback claim payments, protests, post-summary corrections, or any other payment involving a check from the Treasury Department. For the latest shutdown impacts on CBP and other federal agencies, check out our blog.
• Other Recent Updates:
  • A series of new duties took effect on October 14: 10% on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on certain upholstered furniture (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.), and 25% on certain kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.). On January 1, 2026, countries without a trade agreement in place with the U.S. will see cabinet and vanity tariffs increase to 50%, and upholstered furniture tariffs to 30%.
  • On October 14, President Trump suggested potential new tariffs on Spain, citing its refusal to comply with the 5%-of-GDP defense spending target for NATO members. A day later, the European Commission indicated that the EU will “respond appropriately … to any measures taken against one or more of our member states.”
  • Find the latest tariff and trade developments on our live blog.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity is holding at 60-70% through the end of October, and is scheduled to recover to over 80% for November.
  • Overall, demand remains flat. Carriers are monitoring the response to the recently proposed tariffs on China, but have yet to observe any changes to booking profiles.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers have announced an October 15 General Rate Increase (GRI). Early indications are that the GRI is holding.
  • Carriers have postponed the PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) to November, given flat demand and the overall market outlook.
  • The first Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) update after Golden Week showed a slight upward movement, signaling a potential market turnaround.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The post-Golden-Week capacity void remains moderate, with a ~10% weekly capacity cut through Week 44.
  • Rolled shipments due to blank sailings from the Golden Week period are taking up sailing space for the second half of October.
  • Congestion in Antwerp and Rotterdam, especially at the Rotterdam World Gateway terminal under the Premier Alliance, has led to berth wait times exceeding 300 hours. Strikes in Belgium and the Netherlands may worsen congestion in the coming weeks.
  • Demand after Golden Week is recovering slowly. Carriers plan to tighten allocation management from late October to November.
• Strike Impacts:
  • Belgium: On October 6, maritime pilots at Belgium’s major ports—Antwerp, Zeebrugge, and Ghent—launched a strike to protest federal pension reforms. The strike has been temporarily suspended until October 24.
  • Netherlands: On October 8, lashers at the Port of Rotterdam went on strike, demanding a 6.5% wage increase and inflation compensation. A court ruling required workers to halt the strike on weekdays, with partial port operations estimated to resume on October 17. However, it may take until the end of October to clear the cargo backlog.
  • Overall impact: The strikes across Belgium and the Netherlands have put pressure on Europe’s main trade corridors. Supply chain delays are affecting Germany, France, and Central Europe, increasing costs and extending transit times. Despite temporary strike suspensions, port congestion and scheduling delays continue. It will likely take several weeks for transport operations to normalize.
• Freight Rates:
  • The first Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) update after Golden Week showed a slight upward movement, signaling a potential market turnaround.
  • Major carriers have raised their Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for the second half of October and officially announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for November.
  • Ongoing congestion at destination ports may affect vessel turnaround efficiency, potentially leading to more blank sailings and equipment shortages in early November. These operational factors are likely driving carriers to implement their planned rate increases for November.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp: The pilots’ strike has been temporarily suspended. Yard utilization is at 90%, with berth delays of two to four days.
  • Rotterdam: A recent port lasher strike has disrupted container operations. Yard utilization is at 70-83%, with berth delays of two to eight days.
  • Hamburg: Yard utilization is at 75%, with berth delays of five to seven days.
  • Bremerhaven: Yard utilization is at 75-85%, with berth delays of one to three days.
  • South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Significant yard congestion persists. Vessel wait times remain at three to seven days.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment challenges in Europe this month persist, with ongoing container and chassis shortages concentrated in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal. These shortages are contributing to ongoing operational challenges.
• Freight Rates:
  • As of October 13, spot rates remain subdued, hovering around $1,800 to $1,900/FEU. This reflects an ongoing environment of soft demand and moderate vessel and equipment availability on the route.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • In general, routes from the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. remain status quo compared to previous weeks. The India-specific tariff escalation in August continues to keep demand soft, and we continue to see capacity management as a result.
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast: Supply continues to outstrip demand, resulting in blank sailings throughout the month of October.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains widely available, given oversupply on the TPEB into the U.S. West Coast. Capacity management is increasing as services that connect to the U.S. remain soft across Asia.
• Freight Rates:
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: Market rate levels continue to hold steady. Carriers are continuing to enact capacity management strategies, driving more balanced supply in the market.
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: Recent tariff increases and oversupply on core TPEB lanes continue to keep rate levels low.

Air

• North China:
  • The China-U.S. air freight market remains under significant pressure, with no indications that it will ease in the near term. Despite earlier expectations for post-holiday stabilization, capacity remains constrained as strong demand from the technology and ecommerce sectors absorbs nearly all available space. Current conditions are expected to persist in the coming weeks.
  • Space availability remains limited across major U.S. gateways. West Coast destinations continue to see steady volumes, with rates likely to hold firm or edge higher. On the East Coast, demand continues to outpace supply, resulting in more pronounced capacity challenges and driving further upward pressure on rates. These constraints are unlikely to improve in the short term.
  • Recent discussions surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are further straining the already-limited market and driving a short-term surge in demand. Even though implementation remains uncertain, the announcement has prompted many importers to expedite shipments to secure space ahead of the proposed implementation date of November 1.
  • Overall, market conditions are expected to remain firm through late October. Elevated demand and restricted capacity are likely to keep rates high until additional lift becomes available or shipment volumes ease. Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead, book early, and remain flexible with routings to minimize potential disruptions.
• South China:
  • Following the conclusion of China’s Golden Week, overall market capacity has largely returned to normal as carriers resume regular flight schedules. Despite this stabilization, recent U.S.-China tariff developments have driven a sharp increase in air freight rates. Demand from the ecommerce sector remains particularly strong, and continues to take up a significant share of available capacity.
  • As a result, the market is experiencing heightened booking activity throughout October, placing continued pressure on available space. Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead and secure bookings at least five days in advance to ensure access to capacity and mitigate potential rate fluctuations.
• Vietnam:
  • Market demand has strengthened following the end of Golden Week, with several carriers reporting full bookings from key origin points through mid-October.
  • Capacity on major Trans-Pacific routes remains constrained, particularly on services to primary North American gateways. Tight space conditions are expected to persist in the near term as strong demand continues to exceed available capacity.
• South Korea:
  • Air freight demand from South Korea rose sharply ahead of the recent national holiday, putting temporary pressure on Trans-Pacific lanes. Market conditions are expected to normalize by mid-October as operations stabilize.
  • The FEWB market remains generally negotiable on rates, although capacity to certain European destinations is currently limited.
• Malaysia:
  • Outbound volumes from Malaysia have continued to increase since the end of September. However, demand on Trans-Pacific routes has shown signs of easing, with carriers reporting moderate booking activity for early October.
  • Capacity on the FEWB lane remains under pressure. On routes to key European gateways in particular, we expect limited space through the third week of October.
  • To avoid potential delays, shippers are encouraged to secure bookings at least seven days in advance.
• Indonesia:
  • Air freight markets ex-Indonesia remain stable, with consistent service levels and steady rates across major routes. Trans-Pacific lanes continue to perform reliably, while congestion at transshipment hubs is driving some space constraints on FEWB lanes.
  • Exporters are advised to place bookings approximately seven days in advance to ensure capacity access to key European destinations.
• Thailand:
  • Air freight demand from Bangkok continues to show a gradual increase, resulting in tighter capacity on key routes to major destinations in the United States and Europe. While rate levels remain stable compared to the previous week, growing local demand is putting additional pressure on available space.
  • Given increasingly limited capacity on these primary trade lanes, shippers are encouraged to plan shipments early—ideally five to seven days in advance—to secure uplift and minimize the risk of delays.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit times from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast remained near-constant, while transit time from China to North Europe decreased.

Week to October 13, 2025

This week, transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant again, increasing from 32 to 32.3 days. Transit time from China to the U.S. East Coast also saw a slight increase, rising from 53.7 to 54 days. Meanwhile, transit time from China to North Europe dropped by 2 days, from 54.9 to 52.9 days.

 

Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• President Trump Announces Upcoming Tariffs on Trucks: In an October 6 Truth Social post, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks on November 1. Its implementation awaits official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
  • President Trump had previously indicated that tariffs on heavy trucks would take effect on October 1, but did not provide any further details on implementation by that date.
  • Currently, completed vehicles and vehicle parts for passenger and light trucks are subject to Section 232 duties. Until now, heavy trucks and parts have been exempt.
  • USMCA exemptions: For medium- and heavy-duty trucks that fall under the USMCA, it is currently unclear whether these tariffs would apply only to trucks’ non-U.S. content, as is the case with USMCA-compliant automobiles. In general, to qualify for partial duty relief under USMCA rules of origin, the following content must originate from North America: at least 64% of the truck’s value; at least 75% of its engines, axles, transmissions, and other core components; and at least 70% of the manufacturer’s annual steel and aluminum procurement.
  • If these tariffs take effect, USMCA partners would bear the brunt of the impact: Mexico supplied about 74% of the $20.9 billion’s worth of medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the U.S. last year. Canada was the second-largest source, supplying just over 20% of these imports.
• Upcoming Fees on Chinese Vessels: Fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels will take effect on October 14.
  • Chinese vessel owners and operators calling at a U.S. port will face a fee of $50 per net ton. Chinese-built ships will be subject to a fee of $18 per net ton or $120 per container, whichever is higher. Visit our blog for a detailed fee breakdown, including scheduled increases and potential exemptions.
  • Per recently issued guidance from the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the vessel operator must determine whether their vessel owes a fee, rather than U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Fees will be paid directly to the Department of the Treasury, not at the port of entry, and should be paid at least three business days before vessel arrival to ensure lading/unlading and clearance.
• U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: On an October 6 trade outreach call, CBP confirmed that it will not issue any refunds during the government shutdown. This includes both ACH and check refunds, as well as drawback claim payments, protests, post-summary corrections, and any other payment involving a check from the Treasury Department.
  • For protests that have already been approved, importers do not need to take any further action during the shutdown.
  • In the meantime, CBP will continue to process duty refunds, entry summaries, protests, and liquidations. The shutdown does not impact any liquidation dates.
  • CBP is continuing to collect tariff revenue throughout the shutdown. CBP will also implement all upcoming tariffs as planned, including those set to take effect on October 14.
  • While CBP and the USTR are exempt from furloughs, the International Trade Administration—the agency responsible for reviewing antidumping and countervailing duty (ADCVD) cases—has furloughed the majority of its employees. As a result, ADCVD investigations have slowed considerably.
  • For detailed impacts on federal agencies and duty refunds, check out our blog.
• Other Recent Updates:
  • The following duties will take effect on October 14: 10% on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on certain upholstered furniture (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.), and 25% on certain kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities (except for a 15% cap on the EU and Japan and a 10% cap on the U.K.). On January 1, 2026, countries without a trade agreement in place with the U.S. will see cabinet and vanity tariffs increase to 50%, and upholstered furniture tariffs to 30%.
  • If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement by the November 10 deadline, tariffs on Chinese goods will rise to a combined 54%. President Trump and President Xi are due to meet in person near the end of October, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will continue talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng sometime before November 10.
  • President Trump also recently announced plans to impose “substantial tariffs on any country that does not make its furniture in the United States,” a 100% tariff on movies made outside the U.S., and a tariff of up to 100% on branded or patented pharmaceuticals. He did not provide an implementation timeline for any of these suggested tariffs.
  • Find the latest tariff and trade developments on our live blog.

Calculate your tariff and landed cost impacts in real time with the Flexport Tariff Simulator.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Blank sailings in Weeks 41 and 42 are a direct, planned response to the Golden Week holiday in Asia, and will result in a significant capacity reduction to 62-69% of planned.
  • Capacity is expected to bounce back to 83% in Week 43, which is expected to result in an oversupply situation as demand remains low-to-flat.
• Freight Rates:
  • Ocean carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) for October 15 to curb the rate drops. The next Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is expected on October 10.
  • Carriers have postponed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to November 1, given the weak outlook for the floating market.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The market remains flat due to recent holidays in China. Liners prepared roll pools by overbooking by 20-50% before the holidays to optimize vessel utilization, in case demand is slow to recover like in previous years.
  • Capacity-wise, the existing blank sailing program for October will continue to impact supply, with a 10% weekly capacity cut in Weeks 42 and 43. Carriers have announced a blank sailing program that will primarily take place in the first half of November (-20% in Week 45 and -4% in Week 46). If the market reacts reluctantly to rate increases in the second half of October, carriers are expected to announce more blank sailings.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is frozen this week due to China’s Golden Week holiday. The next index update will be released on October 10.
  • Carriers have announced their first round of General Rate Increases (GRIs) for the second half of October to prevent freight volumes from dropping further.
  • Currently, there is little indication in the market that bookings will increase. If the increase in the second half of October is not implemented, we expect another round in the first half of November, along with more blank sailing announcements.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp: Yard utilization is at 90%, with berth delays of two to four days.
  • Rotterdam: Yard utilization is at 70-83%, with berth delays of two to eight days.
  • Hamburg: Yard utilization is at 75%, with berth delays of five to seven days.
  • Bremerhaven: Yard utilization is at 75-85%, with berth delays of one to three days.
  • South Mediterranean (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia): Ports continue to see significant yard congestion, with vessel wait times of three to seven days.
• Equipment:
  • Equipment challenges in Europe this month persist, with ongoing container and chassis shortages concentrated in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal.
• Freight Rates:
  • As of early October, spot rates have stabilized around $1,800 to $1,900/FEU.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast: August’s tariff escalation continues to drive soft demand from India. Supply continues to outstrip demand, resulting in full capacity management into October for Indian-subcontinent-specific services.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains widely available after a short-lived uptick. Capacity management is increasing on the corridor connecting the Indian subcontinent to the U.S. West Coast as demand across Asia remains soft.
• Freight Rates:
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: Following further decreases resulting from August’s tariff escalation, rate levels are holding steady. Carriers are enacting capacity management strategies and driving more balanced supply in the market.
  • Cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: Recent tariff increases and oversupply on core TPEB lanes continue to keep rate levels low.

Air

• North China:
  • A series of flight cancellations during China’s national holiday period has reduced available air freight capacity, resulting in continued upward pressure on rates.
  • Demand remains strong across key sectors, particularly electronics and ecommerce, driving sustained volumes to major U.S. gateways like Chicago (ORD) and New York (JFK).
  • Looking ahead, market conditions are expected to begin stabilizing around October 10, as flight schedules normalize and capacity returns to regular levels following the holiday period.
• South China:
  • Overall, air freight demand has strengthened compared to the previous week, supported by traditional cargo movements ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday.
  • Capacity remains constrained across key origins due to a temporary reduction in flight frequency during the holiday period, particularly out of Southern China. This is continuing to drive upward pressure on space availability.
  • On Trans-Pacific routes, shipments to major U.S. gateways are experiencing tight capacity conditions. Meanwhile, on Europe‑bound services, the market is seeing modest recovery, despite relatively soft overall demand.
  • Flight operations on most westbound routes are expected to continue without major disruption through the holiday. We anticipate a gradual normalization of schedules from mid‑October onwards as additional capacity returns to the market.
• Vietnam:
  • Air freight demand remains elevated nationwide. Particularly strong volumes out of Hanoi continue to limit available capacity on both Trans-Pacific and westbound trade lanes.
  • Market conditions are tighter than in recent weeks, and advance bookings are required to secure space. In contrast, Ho Chi Minh City remains relatively stable, though some shipments may still experience extended transit time due to connection dependencies. Shippers are advised to maintain flexibility in scheduling and plan shipments well in advance during this high‑demand period.
• Cambodia:
  • In Cambodia, air freight capacity remains under pressure amid strong export activity and limited available space. Factories continue to move backlog cargo from recent weeks, contributing to ongoing tight conditions.
  • Booking in advance—ideally several days to a week prior to departure—remains essential to secure uplift. Market conditions are expected to gradually improve as backlog volumes clear and flight schedules return to normal levels.
• South Korea:
  • The air freight market continues to experience congestion following the end‑of‑month surge, leading to backlogs that are likely to persist into October.
  • Demand remains steady across major trade lanes. Shippers should anticipate longer transit times while capacity clears in the coming weeks.
• Malaysia:
  • Air freight volumes from Malaysia are trending upward on Europe‑bound routes, supported by stronger export activity. Capacity remains tight on these lanes as some carriers report limited space through mid‑October, contributing to ongoing booking challenges into key European gateways. Conversely, Trans-Pacific volumes have slightly softened, with lighter booking activity noted for early October.
  • Shippers are encouraged to plan ahead and confirm bookings in advance to minimize the risk of delays during this period of uneven capacity.
• Thailand:
  • Air freight demand from Bangkok is seeing a modest increase, leading to tighter capacity on major lanes to the United States and Europe. While market levels remain generally stable week over week, securing uplift has become more challenging as volumes rise.
  • Shippers are advised to book shipments well in advance—ideally five to seven days ahead—to ensure space availability during this period of increasing demand.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

 

Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant, while transit times on the China to U.S. East Coast and China to North Europe routes both declined.

Week to October 6, 2025

This week, transit time from China to the U.S. West Coast remained near-constant, dropping just 0.2 days from 32 to 31.8 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast decreased significantly, falling from 58.3 to 51.5 days. Transit time from China to North Europe also declined, dropping by 3.4 days from 59 to 55.6 days.

 

Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• U.S. and Japan Reach Trade Deal: On July 22, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement.
  • Under the proposed trade deal, Japan will face a 15% reciprocal tariff; invest $550 billion into the United States, which will receive 90% of the profits; and “open their country to trade, including cars and trucks, rice, and certain other agricultural products.”
  • The proposed 15% reciprocal duty on Japanese imports walks back the previously proposed 25% tariff on Japan that President Trump had announced on Truth Social on July 7.
  • The trade deal will also reduce auto tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%. Last year, more than a third of Japanese goods imported into the U.S. consisted of automobiles and auto parts.
  • The deal is expected to take effect on August 1, alongside reciprocal duties announced for more than two dozen other U.S. trade partners. All await official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
• U.S. and Philippines Reach Trade Deal: On July 22, President Trump announced that the U.S. and the Philippines have also reached a trade agreement. Under the proposed deal, the Philippines will face a 19% reciprocal tariff—a small reduction from the 20% duty President Trump had previously announced. Exactly when and how the trade agreement will be implemented is currently unclear.
• U.S. Lays Out Terms of Trade Deal with Indonesia: On July 22, the U.S. and Indonesia released a joint statement detailing the terms of the trade agreement announced last week.
  • Indonesian goods imported into the U.S. will face a 19% reciprocal tariff, while U.S. goods imported into Indonesia will not be subject to any tariffs.
  • Indonesia will address certain non-tariff barriers by eliminating taxes on digital services (like internet data and streaming), pre-shipment inspections of American agricultural goods, export controls on critical minerals, and more. Indonesia will also accept U.S. federal motor vehicle safety and emissions standards for autos exported from the U.S.
  • It is currently unclear when these terms will take effect. According to the joint statement, the two nations will “negotiate and finalize the agreement … in the coming weeks.”
• Other Tariff Developments:
  • Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the existing 30% effective duty rate on China is likely to extend beyond August 12. In the meantime, negotiations will likely involve China’s ongoing imports of “sanctioned” Russian and Iranian oil.
  • U.S.-India trade talks are in progress. In particular, India seeks to reduce the 26% reciprocal duty announced on Liberation Day, the 50% duty on steel and aluminum, and auto tariffs.
  • A 50% tariff on copper imports, which President Trump announced earlier this month, is set to take effect on August 1.
  • Over the past few weeks, President Trump has announced his proposed reciprocal tariff rates for more than two dozen trade partners. For a full list of these rates, check out our live blog.
  • Other potential duties President Trump has recently suggested include a 10% tariff on BRICS countries and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Market demand in August is expected to remain similar to July levels.
  • Overall carrier capacity deployment for July is 80%-90%, with a slight decrease to 75%-86% in August. Despite some service suspensions to the Pacific Southwest (PSW) and ad hoc blank sailings, the market is experiencing ongoing overcapacity compared to demand. Overall, space is open.
  • Services originating in Southeast Asian ports are experiencing some delays due to continued congestion in Malaysia and Singapore. Expect three to five days of additional transit time, versus proforma.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages and weather disruptions, including typhoons in South China and Southeast Asia, are further challenging schedule reliability at origin.
• Freight Rates:
  • The East Coast Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) will be removed for August.
  • For the West Coast, there continues to be no PSSs for any gateway into August.
  • Several carriers have announced an August 1 General Rate Increase (GRI). These rates are expected to be finalized closer to August, as demand solidifies.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Six blank sailings have been announced for August, all from the Ocean Alliance.
  • Average weekly capacity in August has reached 324,000 TEUs, increasing 1.4% month over month.
  • Due to EU port congestion in July delaying vessel returns and disrupting schedules, both Maersk and MSC are deploying smaller vessels on several services in August to maintain weekly departures, and to avoid skipping sailings.
  • European economic recovery is supporting strong demand, which is expected to continue in August.
  • Equipment shortages and weather disruptions, including typhoons in South China and Southeast Asia, are further challenging schedule reliability at origin.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has been stable at $2,030–$2,100/TEU over the past four weeks.
  • Rates may stay at elevated levels or even increase, in light of supply constraints and strong demand expected to continue in August. Rate increases are also being driven by tight space and equipment at origin, along with congestion and customs delays at key European ports.
  • To test the market, some carriers have already increased August offers by 10%.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Antwerp is experiencing its worst congestion since Covid-19, with dwell times exceeding eight days and yard usage above 90%.
  • Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven are seeing 80-85% yard utilization, resulting in vessel delays of two to four days.
  • Piraeus, Genoa, and Valencia report ongoing yard overcrowding and vessel wait times of two to five days, consistent with prior trends.
  • Export demand from Europe remains consistent.
  • The proposed 30% tariff on Europe, set for August 1, is contributing to ongoing uncertainty for businesses engaged in trade with the U.S.
  • Demand is decreasing due to summer holidays.
  • The blank sailing rate is currently around 4–7%, dropping month over month. Capacity is stable.
• Equipment: Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany continue to face container and chassis shortages. Portugal is also experiencing container imbalance issues.
• Freight Rates: In Northern Europe, West Mediterranean, and East Mediterranean, all carriers have postponed implementing PSSs announced for July. Rates are expected to remain stable until the end of Q3.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity to the U.S. East Coast has increased, with July kicking off the Indian subcontinent’s traditional peak season. One carrier is adding vessels back to their Northeast India to U.S. East Coast service, but temporarily omitting Charleston for enhanced service reliability.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast is available again, given the sharp increase of capacity in the TPEB market and services that enable Indian subcontinent shippers to deliver cargo to the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • For cargo moving to the U.S. East Coast: GRIs and PSSs have been announced for the second half of July, but in general, those increases have not been implemented. Based on what carriers are seeing, there appears to be a large spread in the market across booking intakes and utilization. There may be a lack of typical peak season demand to support the rate increases, especially in light of capacity reinjected into the Indian subcontinent to U.S. East Coast trade.
  • For Indian subcontinent cargo moving to the U.S. West Coast: GRIs did not stick in the market and PSSs have come down, in line with TPEB lanes.
  • Exports from Pakistan continue to see elevated cost and transit times due to additional feeder services needed to service the country in light of the India-Pakistan conflict.

Air

WEEK 28: JULY 7 – JULY 13, 2025

• Asia-U.S. Demand Drops Again: Tonnages fell -5% WoW after a -2% dip last week, led by Southeast Asia (including Indonesia -23%, Thailand -21%, Vietnam -14%), as U.S. demand remains soft post-holiday.
• Rates Hold Firm on North America Rebound: Despite lower global volumes, spot rates rose +1% WoW to $2.65/kg, driven by a +6% bounce in U.S.-origin tonnages and pricing after the July 4 dip.
• Middle East and South Asia (MESA) Hit by Conflict and Customs Issues: Tonnages were down -3% WoW, and spot rates were down -4%. Bangladesh volumes fell -4% overall, but rose +4% to the U.S. ahead of expected August 1 tariffs. India and Sri Lanka also declined.
• Asia-Europe Stable amid U.S. Softness: Asia-Europe tonnages held at +1% WoW, lifted by South Korea (+7%) and Malaysia (+5%). Meanwhile, Japan-U.S. rates dropped -20%, weighing on Asia-U.S. yields.

(Source: WorldACD)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Trends to Watch

Tariffs Talk

• We’re just a little less than two weeks away from April 2, 2025 — the date President Donald Trump reaffirmed that new reciprocal tariffs will take effect.
• On that day, Trump will give a reciprocal tariff “number” to each trading partner that represents their tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers, currency practice, and other factors, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• Meanwhile, Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be eligible for de minimis treatment until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expeditiously process and collect tariff revenue.”
• Follow our live blog to stay updated on the latest developments.

Ocean: Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) Update

• Capacity and demand: March demand has remained stagnant, showing no growth since after the Chinese New Year (CNY). Forecasted demand has not met expectations, or has not materialized as projected. Capacity: Shipping capacity remains healthy, with deployment staying above 80% from the rest of March into April.
• Equipment: Ample equipment supply is available across most origin gateways, and no major shortages are expected.
• Freight rates: Floating market rates: There has been a slowdown in floating market rates this week, with rates stabilizing at current levels. April GRI and rate stabilization: Carriers have announced their General Rate Increase (GRI) for April. PSS removal: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has been removed by most carriers for the remainder of March.

Ocean: Far East Westbound (FEWB) Update

• Capacity and demand: Capacity for the second half of March remains stable, with no additional blank sailings announced for April, though ongoing congestion in Rotterdam, Netherlands, is causing some rolling cases. To mitigate port congestion impacts, transshipment arrangements will be managed at origin. Demand has shown a slight uptick, and with the downsizing of vessels on the pre-arrival service, the market is moving toward a more balanced supply-demand equilibrium. Space for new bookings remains generally available, and the booking release process is running smoothly, but rolling issues may still occur.
• Equipment: Equipment supply is sufficient, though carriers are occasionally substituting 40-foot containers with 40 High Cube containers, which are restricted for Rotterdam discharge. If a 40HW is assigned on the Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR), we recommend requesting the yard to exchange it for a 40-foot or 40 High Cube container that is empty and ready to be loaded with goods.
• Freight rates: The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decline was driven by the rollback of the March GRI, leading to rate stabilization. Focus has now shifted to the April GRI, with major carriers announcing increases while others wait to assess market conditions. The success of implementing April’s GRI remains uncertain, largely depending on market volume in the second half of March. Flexport recommends moving shipments before potential increases, as carriers aim to maintain a pricing floor.

Ocean: Trans-Atlantic Westbound (TAWB) Update

• Capacity and demand: Blank sailings have been reduced, and we expect more stable capacity in March. These blank sailings are mainly in South Europe services. There is congestion at the Ports of Piraeus, Mersin, and Valencia, causing delays in services.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages persist in parts of Central Europe, particularly in Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany. Carrier haulage is recommended for these origins. In Southern Europe, ports have not experienced any equipment issues at this time.
• Freight rates: The majority of carriers have canceled the implementation of the North Europe PSS, as they expect demand to remain flat in April, in contrast to the South of Europe. In the Mediterranean, certain carriers are pushing for the implementation of a PSS for April, focusing on the West Mediterranean. The surcharge ranges between USD 700-1,000 per 40-foot container due to continued high demand and overbooked utilization.

Air Freight Update (March 3 – March 9, 2025 Week 10):

• Overall market stability with YoY growth: Global air cargo demand remained stable week-on-week (WoW), but saw a +2% year-on-year (YoY) increase in Week 10. Across Weeks 9 and 10, total tonnages were up +4% YoY, driven by a +8% increase from Asia-Pacific origins, partially influenced by Lunar New Year timing.
• Asia-Pacific recovery driving regional trends: Asia-Pacific chargeable weight rebounded +5% WoW, returning to mid-January levels. Tonnages from the Asia-Pacific to Europe increased +4% WoW, with strong growth from China (+5%), Hong Kong (+6%), Japan (+7%), Taiwan (+7%), Thailand (+9%), and Singapore (+9%). Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to Europe fell -3% WoW, but remain +20% higher YoY due to strong increases from key markets (e.g., China +14%, Hong Kong +22%, Thailand +38%).
• Rates trending up YoY but mixed short-term: Average worldwide air freight rates were +5% higher YoY in Weeks 9 and 10, rising +1% WoW to $2.33 per kilo. Globally, spot rates held steady at $2.55/kg WoW, but are +8% higher YoY (Asia-Pacific spot rates +11% YoY). Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. stayed stable at $3.78/kg WoW.
• MESA and Dubai see declines: Middle East & South Asia (MESA) to Europe held steady at $2.42/kg, but demand fell -4% WoW, potentially due to Ramadan. Dubai-Europe tonnages dropped -15% WoW, following a -17% drop the previous week. As a result, spot rates fell -12% in Week 10 to $1.88/kg.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is increasing for China to the U.S. East Coast, and decreasing for China to the U.S. West Coast and China to North Europe.

Week to March 17, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has decreased from 44.5 to 40 days. China to North Europe also showed a downtick, falling from 73 to 71.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast increased from 62.5 to 63 days.

 

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Update]

• Starting Wednesday, a 25% tariff has hit all steel and aluminum imports, including derivative products outside Chapters 73 and 76, regardless of compliance with USMCA or other FTAs (like KRFTA).
• The announcement followed a whirlwind of decisions on Tuesday when President Trump initially declared a steep 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum—only to reverse the move just hours later. In retaliation, Canada and Europe quickly announced their own countermeasures.
• Follow our live blog to stay updated on the latest developments.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Capacity and market: Flat demand: March demand remains stagnant, showing no growth since after Chinese New Year. Capacity: Shipping capacity has returned to near full recovery (almost 100%).
• Rate trends: Declining floating rates: Market rates continue to decrease steadily.Narrowing rate gap: The difference between fixed and floating rates is shrinking, driven by falling floating rates and abundant capacity.PSS mitigation/removal: Multiple carriers are reducing or eliminating Peak Season Surcharges (PSS).
• Equipment: Ample equipment supply is available across most origin gateways, with no significant shortages anticipated.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Capacity outlook: This week, capacity changes were minimal, with no new blank sailing announcements for April. MSC downsized vessels on the FEWB main power string, Lion, reducing capacity by 5k TEU per week. However, new fleets, primarily from HPL, have partially offset this. Overall, March’s capacity changes have been limited.
• April GRI announcement: MSK has led the way in announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) for April, marking the start of a new round of rate hikes. However, the success of this GRI depends on market trends in late March.
• Historically, GRIs signal potential long-term cost increases, prompting shippers to advance shipments and driving up rates. However, with current demand trends, cargo growth momentum may be insufficient, and if demand doesn’t pick up in mid-March, the GRI may not be implemented, similar to this month.
• Booking behavior recommendations: Since late February, GRIs for March have been canceled, extending the period of lower market rates. On the Asia side, factories are fully operational, and production is on track. While February saw weak demand, the current market isn’t facing a true demand shortage. Logistical challenges are slowing transportation, and once destination inventory levels are resolved, we expect a surge in export demand. Port congestion at destination ports is causing delays and accelerating inventory reductions. If inventory levels reach a critical point soon, a market rebound is possible. We recommend moving cargo early to capitalize on the current low-rate window and mitigate potential rate increases.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Capacity/demand: Blank sailings are being reduced, leading to more stable capacity in March, particularly in South Europe services (East Mediterranean). Most carriers in North and South Europe have good utilization, with some reaching 100% utilization. This indicates increased demand, especially in North Europe.
• Rates: For North Europe, PSS implementation is mixed. Some carriers have implemented a mitigated PSS in March, while most have postponed it to April, with some now considering canceling the April PSS. In the Mediterranean, certain carriers are planning a PSS for April, mainly in the West Mediterranean, with rates around USD 700-800/40′ ex West Mediterranean and USD 900-1000/40′ ex North Europe.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages continue in parts of Central Europe, especially in Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany, where carrier haulage is recommended. Southern European ports are currently not facing equipment issues.

[Air – Global] Mon 24 Feb – Sun 02 Mar 2025 (Week 9) (Source: worldacd.com):

• China-to-USA weakens amid trade uncertainty: Air cargo volumes fell -10% YoY, with spot rates dropping to $3.80/kg (-9% YoY, -11% MoM). De minimis uncertainty cut ecommerce flights, while ocean imports surged 41% as shippers faced trade restrictions.
• China-to-Europe outperforms the USA market: Shipments grew +4% YoY, and spot rates surged to $4.58/kg (+17% YoY, -2% MoM), showing resilience compared to the U.S. market.
• Global Air Cargo grows despite post-LNY softness: February saw a +5% YoY increase in worldwide tonnage, with Asia-Pacific and South America leading at +8% YoY, while Middle East & South Asia (MESA) declined -6% YoY post-Red Sea crisis peak.
• Market stabilizing, but trade policies loom: Air cargo demand rose for four consecutive weeks, with global spot rates at $2.57/kg (+10% YoY), signaling recovery post-Lunar New Year. However, U.S. tariffs, potential $1M port fees, and trade uncertainty may disrupt supply chains, potentially shifting more cargo to air.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Upcoming Webinars

Tariff Trends 2025: Expert Insights on the New U.S. Customs Landscape

Tuesday, March 18 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00am ET / 15:00 GMT / 16:00 CET

News This Week

Flexport CEO: ‘Efficiency Is a Byproduct’ of Successful AI Implementation

Flexport launched new AI-driven tools to enhance supply chain visibility and automation, including route planning, data analysis, and duty drawback processing. While scaling automation, Flexport plans to grow its workforce. Future priorities include automating standing rates and improving trade advisory tools.

Tariffs Put Us in a Carrot-and-Stick Situation, Says Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen

On Wednesday, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen joined Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss recent tariff and trade developments—including impacts on U.S. manufacturing and exports, how businesses are responding to recent changes, and last month’s U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposal. “The United States is reindustrializing relatively quickly, but it’s too soon to say whether it’s happening as a result of the Trump administration,” Ryan said.

Tariff uncertainty prompts US retailers to downgrade spring import forecast

US retailers have lowered their Q2 import projections amid tariff uncertainties between the Trump administration and key trading partners. The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates report decreased forecasts for April through July due to ongoing tariff challenges and high inventories from cargo frontloading. Import volumes for April and May are projected to grow year-over-year but at a slower pace than previously expected, while June and July are anticipated to decline, with July imports down 13.9% from last year. The NRF cites concerns over increased tariffs on Chinese goods and potential new fees on Chinese tonnage at US ports, which could raise costs for cargo owners and consumers.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is decreasing for China to the U.S. East Coast and China to North Europe, and increasing for China to the U.S. West Coast.

Week to March 10, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has jumped from 40 days to 44.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast decreased from 64.5 to 62.5 days, while China to North Europe also showed a downtick, falling from 76.5 to 73 days.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Update]

• On Wednesday, President Donald Trump agreed to exempt automobiles from the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month.
• More than one in five cars and light trucks sold in the U.S. were built in Canada or Mexico, according to S&P Global Mobility. The tariffs could drive up prices for some models by as much as $12,200.
• Additionally, the reciprocal tariffs are set to start on April 2. Follow our live blog for the latest updates.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Capacity and market: Demand is slowly improving but hasn’t yet reached pre-CNY levels, while capacity has returned and stabilized to over 90%, with space available at all gateways. It’s expected that shipping volumes may shift from China to Southeast Asia.
• Rate trends: Floating rates are steadily declining, with some carriers extending rates until the end of March. Due to the drop in floating market rates and ample capacity, the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has been reduced for March.
• Equipment: There is currently ample equipment supply across most origin gateways, with no major shortages expected.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Capacity outlook: In early March, the overall utilization of carrier vessels was lower than initial expectations. A flat market prompted carriers to withdraw their March GRI and adopt a more competitive stance to attract cargo. Several void sailings in March slightly eased the oversupply situation, but did not result in a significant capacity shortage. The market continued showing an overall oversupply. Additionally, as the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed imposing fees and restrictions on international maritime transport services involving Chinese ship operators and Chinese-built vessels, carriers have begun adjusting their trade capacity deployment between the TPEB and FEWB. However, the broader impact on the FEWB trade remains uncertain at this stage.
• Demand outlook: Demand on the FEWB trade has almost recovered to normal levels following the CNY slowdown. On the export side, production is back at full capacity, but in Europe, order delays are occurring due to inventory buildup issues. Furthermore, weaker shopping demand in Europe this summer, along with fewer major international events compared to last year, has reduced the need for early purchasing and shipping, leading to higher inventory levels. This has contributed to softer market demand and a shortage of cargo volumes in March.
• Market development outlook: Given current flat market conditions and the potential impact of the USTR proposal on carrier capacity adjustments, the market is likely to experience short-term fluctuations with heightened uncertainty. Additionally, carriers are expected to attempt to push up rates through GRIs in mid-to-late March or early April to improve vessel utilization. Unless significant events occur, such as the reopening of the Red Sea route, current FAK spot rates are not expected to be further lowered.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Capacity / demand: Blank sailings have been reduced, and we expect more stable capacity in March. These blank sailings are primarily concentrated in South Europe services, particularly in the East Mediterranean.
• Utilization: Most carriers are experiencing good utilization in both North and South Europe, with some reaching 100% utilization for March sailings. This indicates an increase in demand, which is more pronounced in North Europe. Additionally, the potential implementation of tariffs by the U.S. administration on EU goods is expected to further impact trade demand.
• Rates: Most carriers in North Europe have decided to postpone the March PSS to April. However, some carriers have mitigated the delay and plan to implement the surcharge for shipments to the U.S. East Coast and U.S. Gulf. March FAK rate levels reflect skepticism regarding a potential PSS. In the Mediterranean, certain carriers have announced plans to introduce a PSS in April, following the lead of North European carriers.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages persist in parts of Central Europe, particularly in Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany. For these origins, carrier haulage is recommended. Meanwhile, Southern European ports are not currently experiencing any equipment shortages.

[Air – Global] Mon 17 Feb – Sun 23 Feb 2025 (Week 8) (Source: worldacd.com):

• Asia-Pacific rebound: Air cargo tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins continued their recovery post-Lunar New Year, with a +6% increase in Week 8, following a +20% jump in Week 7. Asia-Pacific to Europe tonnages grew +5%, while Japan to Europe surged +19% WoW. Other key markets, including South Korea (+7%), Vietnam (+8%), and Thailand (+18%), also saw gains.
• Asia-Pacific to USA recovery: Tonnages on this lane rebounded by +5% in Week 8, after a +28% increase in Week 7, bringing volumes back to mid-January levels. Notable increases came from Japan and Hong Kong (+11% each), as well as South Korea and Taiwan (+9% each).
• Rate trends: Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to the USA rose +4% WoW to $4.99/kg, with China to USA recovering +9% to $4.08/kg. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific to Europe rates dropped slightly to $3.99/kg, driven by declines from China (-3%), Hong Kong (-3%), and Japan (-6%).
• Global stability: Overall worldwide tonnages rose +1% WoW, with Asia-Pacific’s +6% gain offset by declines from North America (-2%) and Central and South Asia (-6%). Average global air freight rates increased +2% to $2.32/kg, with the Asia-Pacific being the primary driver. Year-on-year comparisons remain skewed due to different Lunar New Year timings.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

News This Week

Flexport CEO: ‘Every single member on your team should be using AI

Flexport launched 20 AI-driven products to transform logistics, including Flexport Intelligence for AI-powered reporting and Flexport Control Tower for multi-provider freight management.
Looking ahead, the company plans for deeper freight-fulfillment integration and AI-driven inventory financing, maintaining rapid innovation.

Potential US tariffs ignite US-Canada cross-border spot truck rates, volumes

Freight volumes and spot rates between Canada and the U.S. are surging ahead of 25% U.S. tariffs that took effect on March 4. Businesses are rushing shipments to avoid cost hikes, driving a 57% jump in Toronto-to-Chicago dry-van spot-market volumes and rising rates. Spot rates from the US to Canada have risen by 18% since the US election and by 6% in the past two weeks, reaching their highest point in two years. Cross-border shipments made up 72% of loads in January at Canadian load-board operator Loadlink, and Loadlink’s Canada spot market freight index spiked 40%. In contrast, U.S.-Mexico rate increases remain modest.

Trans-Pacific carriers reaching higher in early 2025–26 contract talks

Trans-Pacific container lines are seeking 20-30% rate hikes for 2025-26 contracts, aiming for $2,000 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,000 to the East Coast. Many importers plan to finalize contracts by March, while some retailers are delaying talks, anticipating moderate import growth and increased vessel capacity. Spot rates have been dropping, with West Coast rates at $2,450 per FEU (-37% YoY) and East Coast at $3,575 (-38% YoY). Carriers are using General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to stabilize prices, but competition is driving discounts below $2,000 per FEU.

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Update]

• On Wednesday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union, the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner alongside China.
• Last Friday, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published a proposal to impose steep fees on Chinese shipping companies and Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports.
• Operators with a U.S.-built vessel may receive a refund of up to $1 million per U.S. port call. China manufactures 70% of the world’s green ships, while the number of container ships built in the U.S. is relatively small. Currently, there are 18 U.S.-built vessels, with 3 more on order.
• Container ships typically make 2-3 U.S. port calls per loop. Under this proposal, they could face additional fees of over $3 million per trip—a significant expense compared to the typical revenue of $10-15 million per journey. This would equate to $250-$300 per TEU.
• Some carriers and operators may be able to avoid these proposed fees through network redesign. Currently, the impact on individual companies will be difficult to predict, as it depends on the carrier mix behind the supply chain and the strings they ship on.
• Read our live blog for more details on the proposal, as well as live tariff and trade policy updates.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Capacity and market: Capacity is recovering after Chinese New Year (CNY), currently at over 90%. Demand is also increasing, but hasn’t yet reached pre-CNY levels. Currently, there is ample space available compared to before CNY. This suggests that things are normalizing after the holiday slowdown, but demand is still somewhat soft.
• Rates trends: Floating rates are decreasing rapidly for the rest of February and into March. General Rate Increases (GRIs) are unlikely for March. This indicates downward pressure on pricing, likely due to increased capacity and relatively lower demand. On the fixed contract side, the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) is being mitigated for March, while floating rates are trending downward.
• Equipment: Equipment availability has improved, and is now sufficient at most Asian gateways compared to pre-CNY. This is a positive sign, suggesting that logistical bottlenecks related to equipment are easing.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Space outlook: Bookings from late February through early March have not been significantly affected by the GRI. Week 9 volume remains at 75%-85% of pre-CNY normal weekly volume. Early March blank sailings have had little impact on capacity, as demand remains flat. No significant demand increases have been observed, and bookings continue smoothly with no reported space or equipment issues.
• Destination port congestion: Congestion at most destinations has eased. However, the Route to Market (RTM) is still facing anchor berth waiting times for on-water shipments, which may lead to transshipment or arrival delays. Additionally, the Belgium rail strike on February 13 likely reduced yard turnover efficiency, which could affect vessel call efficiency in the coming weeks.
• Market outlook: Most carriers have announced a GRI for early March in an effort to raise rates, despite limited market demand to support the increase. At the same time, carriers continue to seek cargo for this period. Historically, there have been instances where carriers aligned to set higher-than-expected rates, ultimately succeeding in pushing up the market’s Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates. As of February 25, no cancellations or reductions of the March GRI have been reported.
• You can also find our weekly update on ocean dwell time at UK and European ports below:
  
  

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Capacity/demand: Blank sailings are decreasing, and we expect more stable capacity in March. The majority of carriers are experiencing good utilization in both North and South Europe, with fewer signs of overbooking, which had been driven in recent weeks by the U.S. administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• Rates: Most carriers have decided to postpone the March PSS to April. Some carriers have mitigated this by planning to implement the PSS for the U.S. East Coast and U.S. Gulf. March FAK rate levels show signs of skepticism regarding a potential peak season charge.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages persist in parts of Central Europe, particularly in Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany, where carrier haulage is recommended. Meanwhile, Southern European ports are not currently facing any equipment issues.

[Air – Global] Mon 10 Feb – Sun 16 Feb 2025 (Week 7) (Source: worldacd.com):

• Global recovery: After a -13% decline during the Lunar New Year period, global air cargo tonnages rebounded with two consecutive +3% week-on-week (WoW) increases, in contrast to 2024’s steeper -20% drop and subsequent +15% rebound.
• Asia-Pacific rebound: Tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins recovered sharply with a +15% WoW increase in Week 7, following a -35% drop in Week 5—much milder than the nearly -60% decline seen during the equivalent LNY phase last year.
• China/Hong Kong trough: For China and Hong Kong, the lowest point in the LNY dip occurred in Week 6, with a -45% decline relative to two weeks earlier, compared to a -66% fall in Week 7 during 2024.
• Cargo to the USA: Cargo from China and Hong Kong to the USA saw significant Week 7 rebounds (+40% and +27% WoW, respectively), yet these volumes remain approximately 20%–30% below their January averages.
• Spot rate movements: In Week 7, Asia-Pacific spot rates averaged $3.54 per kilo (+2% WoW, +9% YoY), while rates from the Asia-Pacific to the USA increased +4% WoW to $4.81 per kilo. Meanwhile, China-to-USA rates continued to decline (-6% WoW), though Japan and South Korea rates saw a notable rise (+28% and +13% WoW).

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Upcoming Webinars

[Live Broadcast] The Future of Logistics: Something Big is Coming

Thursday, February 27 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET/ 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Wednesday, March 12 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

News This Week

Flexport releases onslaught of AI tools in a move inspired by ‘founder mode’

Flexport is rolling out a suite of AI-powered products and features, marking the first in a series of semi-annual announcements. Among the highlights of this release are Flexport Intelligence, which provides real-time shipment insights in response to natural language prompts, and Control Tower, which enables real-time visibility and control across entire logistics networks. These AI-driven tools are designed to complement—not replace—human customer relationships. Flexport is also streamlining operations by testing out AI-powered voice agents for truckers, warehouses, and other partners.

Trump’s proposed port call fees against China a ‘big deal’: Flexport CEO

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed imposing hefty port fees on Chinese ships. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen explained on NewsNation that ‘there’s pretty much no way around this,’ as China produces about 70% of the world’s container ships. Petersen noted that even if a shipping company primarily uses non-Chinese vessels, owning just one Chinese-made ship would still possibly trigger a $500,000 fee per port call.

Trade groups renew push for ocean carrier movement on digitization

Nearly three dozen trade groups are urging shipping lines to speed up the adoption of digital standards for the benefit of shippers, forwarders, and customs brokers. The call, made in a letter to members of the Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA), follows a similar plea from 11 months ago. The DCSA recently released new standards for booking and electronic bills of lading. The letter urges carriers to align their implementation plans, collaborate with other DCSA members, and involve customers in development. Signatories, including major industry associations, call for progress updates starting in mid-2025.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI plateaued for China to the U.S. West Coast, while increasing for China to North Europe and China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to February 24, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has plateaued at last week’s level: 39.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast jumped from 62 to 65 days, while China to North Europe also showed an uptick, increasing from 74 to 75 days.

 

 

Please direct questions about the Flexport OTI to press@flexport.com.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.

The contents of this report are made available for informational purposes only. Flexport does not guarantee, represent, or warrant any of the contents of this report because they are based on our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions, about which there can be no assurance due to various anticipated and unanticipated events that may occur. Neither Flexport nor its advisors or affiliates shall be liable for any losses that arise in any way due to the reliance on the contents contained in this report.

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Update]

• On Tuesday, President Donald Trump told reporters that he may impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors as early as April 2.
• However, he did not specify whether the tariffs would apply to all imported vehicles, or target specific countries.
• If implemented, the tariffs could significantly impact major auto-exporting countries to the U.S., including Mexico, Japan, and Canada.
• For more details on the latest tariff updates, read our blog.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Capacity and market: Capacity is recovering after the Chinese New Year (CNY), currently at over 90%. Demand is also increasing, but hasn’t yet reached pre-CNY levels. Currently, there is ample space available compared to before CNY. This suggests that while things are getting back to normal after the holiday slowdown, demand is still somewhat soft.
• Rates trends: Floating rates are decreasing rapidly for the rest of February and into March. General Rate Increases (GRIs) are unlikely for March. This indicates downward pressure on pricing, likely due to the increased capacity and relatively lower demand.
• Equipment: Equipment availability has improved and is now sufficient at most Asian gateways compared to pre-CNY. This is a positive sign, suggesting that logistical bottlenecks related to equipment are easing.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Space outlook: Several blank sailings have been announced, impacting capacity from late February to early March. Overall recovery on the FEWB trade lane remains slow.
• Destination port congestion: Carrier reports indicate ongoing congestion at destination ports. Notably, Rotterdam is experiencing ETA delays of 5-9 days for vessels awaiting berth.
• GRI announcement: At least three carriers within the Gemini and Ocean alliances have announced a GRI for March, exceeding 50% based on current market offers. While rates for the second half of February remain stable at lower levels, carriers aim to push rates higher in early March through this GRI. This announcement may also incentivize shippers to advance their cargo to the latter half of February.
• Predictions and suggestions: Given current supply-demand dynamics, we believe the March FAK rate is unlikely to experience such a sharp increase. However, this GRI could effectively halt further rate declines and potentially lead to a slight market uptick in March. Shippers are advised to book earlier in February to secure current rates and available space while mitigating the risk of higher rates in March.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Capacity/demand: Capacity has surged in the last two weeks of February, with many vessels fully booked on the North Europe–U.S. East Coast trade. This increase is linked to the upcoming steel and aluminium tariffs that the U.S. administration will implement on March 12. Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean, utilization remains strong, with no signs of overbooking.
• Rates: Some carriers have postponed the March Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) to April, while others have implemented it selectively for certain regions. Market skepticism remains regarding the PSS, which currently affects only exports from North Europe.
• Equipment: Equipment shortages persist in parts of Central Europe, particularly in Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, and Southern/Eastern Germany. For shipments originating from these areas, carrier haulage is recommended to mitigate equipment challenges.

[Air – Global] Mon 03 Feb – Sun 09 Feb 2025 (Week 6) (Source: worldacd.com):

• Global rebound & pricing decline: Air cargo tonnages rebounded by +3% week on week in Week 6 (Feb 3–9, 2025) after the Lunar New Year dip, while overall worldwide rates dropped –5% WoW to US$2.30 per kilo (+1% YoY).
• Asia-Pacific impact: The rate drop was largely driven by the Asia-Pacific, where prices fell –11% WoW; spot rates in this region dipped –8% WoW to US$3.56 per kilo, though both global and regional spot rates are +4% higher YoY.
• Middle East & South Asia (MESA) trends: MESA origins saw a slight –1% WoW dip in tonnage (–7% YoY), with spot rates falling –4% WoW to US$2.99 per kilo, but these remain +26% higher YoY. Trade to Europe shows tonnages –21% lower YoY, with spot rates still +32% higher YoY.
• China/Hong Kong to USA & Europe:
• To USA: China-origin tonnages dropped –20% WoW in Week 5 and –28% WoW in Week 6 (–41% YoY), with spot rates falling to US$3.99 per kilo.
• To Europe: China/Hong Kong tonnages fell significantly (up to –30% WoW in Week 5 and further in Week 6), though spot rates remained relatively stable around US$3.91 per kilo.
• Other East Asian Markets recover: Countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam experienced steep tonnage declines during Week 5 (ranging from –42% to –60% WoW) but rebounded in Week 6, with increases of +21% to +68% WoW. Their spot rates remain well above last year’s levels.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

 

News This Week

Ocean carriers’ ever-tightening grip on capacity control shows no signs of loosening

Container shipping has become more expensive and less reliable over the past 25 years due to shrinking capacity. In the early 2000s, carriers prioritized meeting demand, but after the 2008 financial crisis, they slowed ships to cut costs. Since then, blank sailings and port congestion have further reduced capacity, while external shocks like COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts have made things worse. With new environmental regulations ahead, carriers may pass rising fuel costs onto shippers, adding to their challenges.

US regulator reopens truck broker-transparency proposal for new comments

U.S. regulators are reopening public comments on a proposed rule requiring freight brokers to disclose shipper-paid rates and broker margins to trucking companies. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) extended the comment period until March 20 following a request from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition. The rule seeks to improve transparency by mandating electronic records and access to transaction details within 48 hours. However, the FMCSA declined to ban broker contracts that waive carriers’ rights to this information.

Small Warehouses Are Getting Harder to Find

The vacancy rate for warehouses under 100,000 square feet is just 3.9%, compared to 6.7% overall and 10.1% for larger buildings. Developers have focused on building big warehouses to meet ecommerce demand, leaving a shortage of smaller spaces, especially in urban areas. As companies seek smaller warehouses to cut costs and improve delivery times, finding space remains a major challenge.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI maintains its ascent for China to the U.S. West Coast, while declining for China to North Europe and China to the U.S. East Coast.

Week to February 17, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to the U.S. West Coast has risen from 38 to 39.5 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. East Coast and China to North Europe have fallen from 65.5 to 62 days and 76 to 74 days, respectively.

 

 

Source from Flexport.com

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs/De Minimis Exemption Update]

• Effective Tuesday, February 4, an additional 10% tariff has been imposed on goods from China and Hong Kong under President Trump’s executive order, which also eliminates the de minimis rule for Chinese-origin goods.
• The executive order also suspends duty drawback on these additional duties for goods originating from China (Mexico and Canada deferred). However, businesses may still recover the standard duties, including Section 201 or Section 301 duties.
• In response, China swiftly announced a series of retaliatory measures against the U.S.
• Meanwhile, tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been deferred for 30 days after President Trump reached a last-minute agreement with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
• For more details on the latest tariff updates, read our blog.

[Suez Canal Update]

• As of February 4, 2025, the Suez Canal is experiencing a return to stability following previous disruptions caused by attacks in the Red Sea.
• The Houthis have pledged to honor the Gaza ceasefire reached last month and have suspended attacks on commercial shipping in the region. Despite this, major shipping lines remain cautious, prioritizing security before resuming regular operations.
• The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) is actively working to restore traffic through the canal, given the improving security situation.
• On Monday, the SCA issued new navigational maps for a planned 10-kilometer extension of the canal. This project aims to increase capacity, allowing an additional six to eight vessels to transit daily.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Demand remains weak post-Lunar New Year in February, with floating rates expected to decline further. By Weeks 9 and 10, we can see a slow recovery.
• Capacity: Blank sailings announced before the holiday are now impacting market capacity. However, with deferred shipments built ahead of LNY, most carriers report good vessel utilization in February despite the slowdown in demand. Given the anticipated rate decrease, carriers are expected to accept over-bookings in preparation for March.
• Equipment: No shortages have been reported.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Demand remains weak post Lunar New Year in February, with floating rates expected to decline further.
• Capacity: Blank sailings announced before the holiday are now impacting market capacity. However, with deferred shipments built ahead of LNY, most carriers report good vessel utilization in February despite the slowdown in demand. Given the anticipated rate decrease, carriers are expected to accept over-bookings in preparation for March.
• Equipment: Occasional equipment shortages at origin persist due to blank sailings and vessel delays. Timely Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR) printing to ensure that documents are generated and processed promptly to avoid delays in equipment pickup and early equipment pickup can help mitigate the risk of missed cargo-loading.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Service updates: Recent changes in ocean carrier alliances and vessel deployments, which temporarily reduced available capacity and caused service disruptions in recent weeks, have now been fully implemented. These strategic realignments within major carrier alliances are expected to stabilize schedules and enhance service reliability going forward.
• Blank sailings have decreased in both North and South Europe.
• Rates: Some carriers have implemented a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) starting March 1 for shipments from North Europe to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
• Demand remains stable in February, with carrier capacity at healthy levels.

[Air – Global] (Mon 20 Jan – Sun 26 Jan 2025) (Week 4) (Source: worldacd.com):

• Global air cargo rates and volumes: Average global air cargo rates increased by +4% week-on-week (WoW) in Week 4 (Jan. 20-26) to $2.52/kg, marking an +11% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Tonnages from the Asia-Pacific rose +2% WoW, now +6% YoY, though still -8% below the Week 49 peak.
• Asia-Pacific to Europe and USA trends: Asia-Pacific to Europe tonnages surged +10% WoW, now +5% YoY, with China to Europe up +11% WoW and +12% YoY. Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific to Europe ($4.32/kg) and China to Europe ($4.29/kg) were stable, but +30% YoY. Asia-Pacific to USA rates rose to $5.30/kg, up +28% YoY, while China to USA rates ($4.49/kg) were up +5% YoY.
• Worldwide tonnages stabilizing: Global tonnages remained broadly stable (+1% WoW) in Week 4 after rebounding +28% in Week 2 and +11% in Week 3. Current levels are -7% below December averages, but are similar to levels last October and this time last year, indicating slower YoY growth in 2025 compared to +11% YoY growth in 2024.
• Central and South America (CSA) growth: Outbound tonnages from CSA soared +17% WoW in Week 4, with a +62% increase in the first four weeks of 2025, mainly driven by flower shipments ahead of Valentine’s Day. Flower shipments more than doubled (+114%), with 92% destined for North America.
• Colombia and Ecuador leading flower exports: 98% of CSA flower exports to North America originated from Colombia (61%) and Ecuador (37%). Flowers accounted for 77% of Colombia’s and 63% of Ecuador’s total air exports in early 2025, reinforcing their reliance on the North American market.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Upcoming Webinars

The Ripple Effect of U.S. Tariffs: What Global Companies Need to Know

Thursday, February 6 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET/ 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

Scenario Planning: 3 Key Developments Shaping The Freight Market

Monday, February 10 @ 7:00 am PT / 10:00 am ET/ 16:00 CET / 15:00 GMT

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: A Beginner’s Guide to a Successful RFP

Tuesday, February 11 @ 11:00 am PT / 2:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, February 13 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: An Advanced Guide to Upscaling Your RFP

Wednesday, February 19 @ 10:00 am PT / 1:00 pm ET

This Week in News

Flexport CEO breaks down the complex and uncertain global trade landscape

As global markets face uncertainty amid President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen discussed how businesses are navigating the rapidly shifting trade landscape in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer. According to Petersen, many companies have been rushing to import goods in anticipation of escalating duties, particularly on Chinese imports.

USPS Resumes Accepting Packages From China After Unexpected Suspension

The USPS abruptly halted package acceptance from China and Hong Kong on Tuesday following China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The ban was quickly reversed on Wednesday, with USPS and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) working to enforce new tariffs with minimal disruption.

Flexport CEO outlines real impact of tariffs on shipping, consumer prices

On Tuesday, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen sat down with Blake Burman at NewsNation to discuss the latest on U.S.-China trade—specifically, the new 10% tariff and the suspension of the de minimis exemption, both of which took effect yesterday. “I don’t think this is the end of it,” Ryan said. “The treasury secretary has until April 1 to put in a formal recommendation for the president on Chinese trade, so I’d expect barriers to trade to ratchet up.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is on the rise across the board.

Week to February 3, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to North Europe has risen considerably in the past month: despite a small decrease in the last few weeks, it has been on the rise for two consecutive weeks, increasing from 78 to 79 days. Meanwhile, China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast have also been on the rise, increasing from 37 to 37.5 days and 64.5 to 65.5 days, respectively.

 

Trends to Watch

[Tariffs Watch]

• President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that he intends to impose universal tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5%, shortly after pledging tariffs on semiconductors, steel, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, and copper.
• Additionally, over the weekend, President Trump threatened Colombia with emergency tariffs. That standoff was quickly resolved after the Colombian government agreed to the Trump administration’s terms.
• The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation met this week to discuss the Panama Canal’s impact on U.S. trade and security. At last week’s inauguration, President Trump reiterated his plan to “take the Panama Canal back.”
• For more details on the latest tariff updates, read our blog.

[Ocean – TPEB]

• Demand: Demand reductions due to the Lunar New Year holiday have put downward pressure on rates. The SCFI has declined for its third consecutive week.
• Rates: No rate adjustments are expected in the next 1-2 weeks due to holidays in China. Further short-term rate adjustments are anticipated in early February, following a pattern similar to Peak Season Surcharge (PSS).
• Vessel utilization: To prevent vessel underutilization, carriers have established roll pools at major origin loading ports, leading to expected rollovers in the coming two weeks. No equipment shortages have been reported at origin.

[Ocean – FEWB]

• Carrier announcements: To prevent under-utilized vessels, carriers have announced void sailings before and after the Chinese New Year holidays. This has resulted in the buildup of roll pools at major origin loading ports. Rollover cargo is expected in the next two weeks.
• Service updates: New alliance services will fully launch in February, with more updates to follow regarding service reliability.
• Equipment availability: Occasional equipment shortages are occurring at origins due to blank sailings and vessel delays.
• Client advisory To minimize the risk of missed cargo loading, we recommend timely Equipment Interchange Receipt (EIR) printing and earlier equipment pickups.

[Ocean – TAWB]

• Service updates: New alliance services are set to begin in February.
• Blank sailings The frequency of blank sailings has decreased in Northern Europe. However, some blank sailings persist in specific services, primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Space availability Carriers are observing slight increases in available space on routes to the U.S. East and West Coasts.
• Equipment challenges Equipment shortages continue to affect Central Europe, including Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and southern Germany. Carriers recommend utilizing carrier haulage to better monitor and manage demand.

[Air – Global] Mon 13 Jan – Sun 19 Jan 2025 (Week 3):

• Air cargo demand trends: Global air cargo tonnages increased by +8% week on week (WoW) in Week 3 (Jan 13-19), following a +29% rebound the previous week. Tonnages have now recovered to ~90% of pre-Christmas levels, after a sharp -35% decline in late December and early January. Year-on-year (YoY), global tonnages rose by +3% in Week 3 and +2% for Weeks 2 and 3 combined.
• Spot rate developments: Average global air cargo rates were stable at $2.43/kg in Week 3, +7% YoY. Global spot rates declined by -3% WoW, but remain +16% higher YoY, with notable increases from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) (+54% YoY) and the Asia-Pacific (+20% YoY).
• Asia-Pacific market performance: Asia-Pacific tonnages rose +5% WoW in Week 3 and are +5% YoY, but still -10% below peak Week 49 levels. The post-peak demand decline in the Asia-Pacific (-33%) is similar to last year (-30%), but recovery to Europe is lagging, with Asia-Pacific to Europe down -20% vs. Week 49 and China to Europe down -15%.
• Regional rate trends: Asia-Pacific to Europe spot rates dropped by -4% WoW to $4.35/kg, which is -15% lower than Week 49, but still +31% YoY. Asia-Pacific to USA tonnages rose +7% WoW, now -16% below Week 48 peak, while rates fell for the fifth consecutive week to $5.21/kg, though still +29% YoY.
• Market drivers: The seasonal recovery is underway but faces headwinds due to an early Lunar New Year (Jan. 29), affecting demand patterns.High spot rates persist YoY, reflecting capacity constraints and sustained ecommerce demand, especially on major trade lanes.

Source: worldacd.com

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

 

 

Upcoming Webinars

The Ripple Effect of U.S. Tariffs: What Global Companies Need to Know

Thursday, February 6 @ 8:00 am PT / 11:00 am ET / 16:00 GMT / 17:00 CET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: A Beginner’s Guide to a Successful RFP

Tuesday, February 11 @ 11:00 am PT / 2:00 pm ET

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, February 13 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Navigating the 2025 RFP Season: An Advanced Guide to Upscaling Your RFP

Wednesday, February 19 @ 10:00 am PT / 1:00 pm ET

This Week in News

Asia-Europe ocean rates fall as weak demand sparks battle for market share

The Asia-Europe trade lane is experiencing intense competition between forwarders and carriers, with falling rates and slowing demand leading up to the Lunar New Year holidays. Many Chinese factories shipped orders early, resulting in a quiet market since mid-January. Short-term Asia-North Europe rates have dropped 21% since late December, settling at $3,963/FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates are down over 10%.

Sailing cuts slow pace of decline for India-USEC spot ocean rates

Spot rates on the India-U.S. East Coast trade have slowed their decline, supported by reduced capacity from blank sailings by major carriers. Current rates average $1,350–$1,500 per FEU, with Platts reporting $1,480 as of Jan. 24, down slightly from earlier in the month. Despite plans for February GRIs and surcharges, carriers remain doubtful of their success amid volatile market conditions. Any partial reopening of the Suez Canal could add further pressure to rates due to overcapacity.

Carriers eye Red Sea transits after Houthi rebels pledge restraint

Ocean carriers remain cautious about resuming Red Sea transits despite a Houthi announcement limiting attacks to Israel-affiliated vessels. Carriers like Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk insist they will only return when the region is deemed safe. The Red Sea crisis, which began in late 2023, forced most ships to reroute around Africa, reducing available fleet capacity and driving up freight rates. Analysts warn that a return to the Suez route will flood the market with capacity, leading to supply chain disruptions and sharp declines in spot rates. While carriers may mitigate overcapacity through scrapping and slow steaming, a market downturn appears inevitable.

Flexport Ocean Timeliness Indicator

This week, the Flexport OTI is on the rise for China to North Europe and China to U.S. West Coast, while China to the U.S. East Coast has plateaued.

Week to January 27, 2025

This week, the Ocean Timeliness Indicator (OTI) for China to North Europe had risen considerably in the past month, showing a small decrease last week by falling to 75.5 days, and is once again on the rise this week—up to 77.5 days. Similarly, China to the U.S. West Coast increased from 35.5 to 37.5 days, while China to the U.S. East Coast has stabilized at 64.5 days.