值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Dubai to Europe air cargo tonnages have seen a substantial increase, with a +205% rise compared to last year and a +7% increase from the previous week, driven by disruptions in Asia-Europe container shipping while overall global demand stabilized.
• Key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs, including Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok, have experienced significant air cargo demand to Europe since early 2023, with Dubai-Europe tonnages more than doubling year-on-year due to the Red Sea situation.
• While Bangkok to Europe demand continues to rise, with a +33% year-on-year increase in week 10, Colombo to Europe demand shows signs of softening, with a growth of +20% compared to +35% the previous week.
• Globally, air cargo tonnages stabilized with a slight increase in average rates to $2.32 per kilo in week 10, following a post-Lunar New Year recovery in demand, particularly from the Asia Pacific region.
• Worldwide air cargo capacity is up by +9% year-on-year, with significant increases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, while average rates remain above pre-COVID levels, indicating a robust recovery in the sector.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-North Europe: For Asia-Europe trade, most vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. Some carriers are investigating the possibility of routing back to the Suez Canal, but so far no further announcements. The news indicates that vessels in the Indian Ocean and the Cape of Good Hope may also be impacted by the situation. We’re closely monitoring and following up with carriers.
• After Maersk & Hapag Lloyd announced the Gemini Cooperation commencing in 2025, Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM Group, COSCO Shipping, Evergreen, and OOCL) confirmed the renewal of The Ocean Alliance partnership for another 5 years. Following the renewal, effective April 2024, there will be some service adjustments. Details to follow once we learn more. So far, the new deployment plan shared by Ocean Alliance for Asia to Europe would be:
  • 6 services between Asia and Northern Europe.
  • 4 services between Asia and the Mediterranean.
• The floating market rate keeps dropping. Some carriers are preparing to implement GRI for April by $600-800 per FEU. While demand remains flat at the moment, more discussion is ongoing about current offerings and long-term finalizations, especially if the current Red Sea Surcharges will be upheld by carriers.

北美船舶停留时间

 

TPM24 Takeaways

There is no better chance to learn about the state of the industry than the annual Transpacific Maritime (TPM) Conference. TPM ‘24 took place between March 3-6 at the Long Beach Convention Center. Flexport’s team was on site to chat with, and learn from, our customers and carrier partners—both current and potential. Here are our top insights for the coming year.

• Uncertainties Persist. The supply chain is getting more complex every day. The situation in the Red Sea was top of mind at TPM, as well as Panama Canal restrictions, and ILA contract negotiations. Uncertainty drives anxiety. As a global logistics platform, we can help de-risk the supply chain for our customers and give actionable, data-driven advice on how to manage your procurement decisions in 2024 and beyond.
• Diversifying means protection. In previous years, shippers and service providers would get into a meeting room and already know exactly what the rates would be. Everyone would sign the contract, and the following year, sign the same contract again. That’s no longer the case. With this market’s persistent uncertainty over the past few years, customers are starting to embrace how diversifying their carrier and forwarder portfolio can foster more agility. For example, larger customers are willing to embrace different routings to ensure disruptions don’t impact their business too strongly. Shippers are also looking for unique ways to keep their business moving, and really understanding how forwarders and brokers can create opportunities and solutions for better protection when moving supplies globally.
• Technology and visibility are the future. Customers are excited about technology and modernization. Current and potential customers had a lot of questions about integrations, and almost every shipper we spoke with is looking for real-time, accurate shipment and SKU-level visibility. Everyone is data-hungry and looking for solid solutions. Having visibility into your goods is not just critical for managing an efficient, modern supply chain; visibility helps shippers — Flexport’s customers — improve the customer experience for their own customers, too. Visibility is foundational to managing customer expectations as consumers want to know when they’ll receive their goods, and if they’re delayed, why.
• Relationships matter. Shippers are looking for partners. After the last few years and the tumultuous supply chain we’ve experienced, now more than ever people are looking for good relationships and the ability to talk to someone they trust. There are a lot of questions about the future, and customers are looking for great advice on how to navigate tumultuous waters together. Many of our customers are asking how we handled the disruptions in the past and how we thought outside of the box. It’s important to be nimble and agile with a purpose to provide efficient solutions.

The Year Ahead
After TPM, rates get locked and RFP season goes into full gear. To ensure you feel confident about forecasts for the year ahead before launching your RFPs, don’t hesitate to reach out to your Flexport account managers and our teams to discuss strategies for Fixed/Floating, and BCO/NVO volume contracts.

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Overall Growth in Demand: The first two months of the year saw a +13% increase in worldwide air cargo demand compared to the same period last year, driven by strong performance from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins and recovery from the Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonal dip.
• February’s Performance: Preliminary figures for February indicate an +8% year-on-year increase in air cargo tonnages, with a +4% increase when adjusting for the leap year day. This follows a +17% increase in January, showcasing a consistent upward trend despite the complications of comparing months due to LNY variances.
• Post-LNY Recovery: Three weeks after the later Lunar New Year in 2024, demand had largely rebounded from the post-LNY dip, especially in the key Asia Pacific region, mirroring patterns from 2023 but with somewhat stronger demand in 2024.
• Regional Dynamics: Strong rebounds were observed in intra-Asia Pacific traffic, up by +44% in Weeks 8 and 9 compared with Weeks 6 and 7, and significant year-on-year growth in tonnages from MESA in the same weeks (+22%), reflecting continued disruption in sea-air shipping routes due to the situation in the Red Sea.
• Global Pricing and Capacity Trends: Despite a global average rate decline of -16% compared to last year, rates from MESA are up +13%, indicating a regional anomaly. Global air cargo capacity is up by +9% over last year, with notable increases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, highlighting an overall growth in the air cargo industry above pre-COVID levels.
• Average global rates remain above pre-COVID levels (+27% compared to February 2019).

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Asia-North Europe: The Red Sea situation continuously impacts freight market developments. Some vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, and some carriers are investigating the situation and re-routing back via the Suez Canal. More to follow as information becomes available.
• Demand is flat, and carriers are further adjusting rates for more fresh cargo in 2H March. Carriers are still upholding PSS/Contingency Surcharges due to rerouting vessels, however, more questions about the actual additional cost are being brought up and further adjustments are expected in April.
• Carriers are actively investigating demand & supply. We’re seeing vessels open for booking till last minute, which may reflect the oversupply situation. If soft demand continues from Week 12 onwards, we expect there could be more blank sailings announced soon.
• For historical updates on the Red Sea situation, read more in Global Ocean Carriers Halt Red Sea Transits – What to Expect.

北美船舶停留时间

 

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Global air cargo tonnages increased in the last full week of February following the typical dip during the Lunar New Year (LNY), with significant surges in tonnages at key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs (Dubai, Colombo, Bangkok) due to disruptions in container shipping in the Red Sea.
• Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic in week 8 saw a more than double increase (+146%) compared to the same period last year, with recent weeks showing a +140% year-on-year (YoY) rise. Colombo-Europe and Bangkok-Europe also experienced significant YoY tonnage increases, indicating strong demand for air cargo as an alternative to disrupted sea routes.
• The sustained high demand for air cargo through these hubs into March is uncertain, but week 8 showed no signs of waning, contributing to a +9% week-on-week rise in global air cargo tonnages, partially recovering from previous drops during LNY.
• A broader two week comparison highlights the impact of LNY and Valentine’s Day on demand, with significant tonnage decreases from Asia Pacific and Central & South America, but a notable rise from the Middle East & South Asia region. Global average prices fell by -6% due to these fluctuations, despite a price rise from the Middle East & South Asia.
• Year-on-year data reveals a -4% decrease in worldwide tonnages for weeks 7 and 8, with a significant drop ex-Asia Pacific but a notable increase ex-Middle East & South Asia. Average global rates remain above pre-COVID levels, though they have decreased compared to the previous year, with worldwide air cargo capacity significantly up (+8%).

[Ocean - FEWB]

• The Red Sea Crisis is continuously impacting freight market development. With most of the vessels routed via the Cape of Good Hope, carriers believe the supply will still be balanced with demand in a mid-run. The Lunar New Year (LNY) soft demand is temporary, however, equipment is in better shape (mainly because of LNY slow recovery). Carriers are also investigating the situation and re-routing back via the Suez Canal. More details to follow as information is made available.
• Demand remains flat post LNY. Carriers are further adjusting rates to cater fresh cargo in 1H March. PSS/Contingency Surcharges are still being upheld by carriers due to the reroute, however, more questions about the actual additional cost are being brought up and we expect there will be adjustments in March.
• Ocean Alliance continuously announced voided plans for March. With 2M’s Winter Program ending, carriers are actively investigating the demand & supply. If soft demand continues from Week 12 onwards, we expect there may be more blank sailings announced.
• To mitigate the disruption of operational challenges (sailing schedule adjustments, vessel downsizes, equipment shortages, rollover, etc.), shippers can consider premium services offered by liners with higher costs. This approach will help guarantee space and equipment and shorten delays.

北美船舶停留时间

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• Strong Surge in Tonnages at Asia-Europe Sea-Air Hubs: Recent weeks have seen a notable increase in air cargo volumes at key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok, driven by shippers seeking alternatives to container shipping disruptions due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea. This surge is attributed to the need to replenish European stocks affected by longer container ship voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.
• Significant Year-on-Year Growth: Analysis highlights a year-on-year increase in air cargo tonnages to Europe from Dubai (+71%), Colombo (+61%), and Bangkok (+58%) in the first seven weeks of 2024, significantly outpacing growth at other hubs like Singapore and Doha.
• Impact of Lunar New Year Timing: The later occurrence of Lunar New Year (LNY) in 2024 complicates week-by-week comparisons but underscores a clear pattern of increased tonnages from these hubs to Europe. Despite this, the impact on pricing remains uncertain due to various factors, including market-wide declines from the previous year.
• Seasonal Demand Fluctuations: Post-LNY, a traditional decline in demand from Asia Pacific is observed, affecting global air cargo tonnages and rates. However, there’s a structural improvement in demand compared to the previous year, with specific regions like the Middle East & South Asia experiencing tonnage and rate increases, likely reflecting the shift from ocean freight to sea-air solutions.
• Global Air Cargo Trends: Overall, despite a slight year-on-year decrease in worldwide tonnages for weeks 6 and 7, structural improvements in demand levels are evident. Notably, worldwide air cargo capacity has increased, with significant rises from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia, indicating a robust recovery and adaptation within the air cargo industry to ongoing logistical challenges.

[Ocean – ISC to North America]

• Rates: Reduced down after the 2H February GRI. Carriers had initially posted a March 1st GRI of $1000/container, but as of this week have postponed it until 2H March. Without any changes to the market it is likely the GRI will be canceled entirely.
• Space: Vessels delayed getting to destination and back to origin are resulting in a lack of capacity. The short term disruption is expected to be more challenging, while longer term we expect some normalization due to new builds, faster vessel speeds, and implementation of idle capacity.
• Equipment: Although equipment availability is carrier-specific for each port of loading, the overall situation is challenging. This is especially true at inland container depots and smaller/less connected ports.

[Ocean - FEWB]

• Red Sea: This remains unresolved as most vessels continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-4 weeks of transit time (round trip). Vessel schedules will continue to fluctuate as a result, and regional equipment shortages will occur in some Asian ports.
• Demand: Demand has softened as expected after the LNY holiday. Bookings have slowed down in week 9; we expect them to pick up from week 11 onwards. As roll pools have been created in the past few weeks, vessel utilization is positive at the moment, and carriers are continuing to assess capacity and rates.
• Capacity: All alliances implemented massive blank sailings pre-LNY for weeks 8 and 9, which cut about 30+% of capacity on average. After the LNY holiday, Ocean Alliance announced two more void plans for March. If demand remains flat, there might be more blank sailings to be announced. Occasional space constraints due to smaller vessel deployment and schedule re-shuffling due to current re-routing will also impact the available capacity each week.
• Rate Development: As the Red Sea situation continues to impact capacity and equipment, carriers are upholding rates via GRI / PSS / Contingency Charges, however there’s pressure and questions about the amount of additional costs of re-routing via Cape of Good Hope. Expectations are that the Peak Season quantums will be mitigated or even be dropped in March. Rates are expected to go down as of March 1 and continue to decline going forward due to low demand.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

值得关注的趋势

[Air – Global] (Data Source: WorldACD/Accenture)

• China’s Inbound Tonnage Decline: In the week leading up to the Lunar New Year, China experienced a significant drop in inbound air cargo tonnages by 15% week-over-week, contributing to a global tonnage fall of 12%. This was against a backdrop of only a 2% decline in China’s outbound tonnages, indicating a sharp contrast in trade dynamics as the holiday approached.
• Stable to Rising Average Global Rates: Despite the drop in tonnages, average global air cargo rates remained steady and even saw a slight increase during week 6, mirroring trends from the previous year. This suggests resilience in pricing amid fluctuating volumes.
• Intra-Asia Pacific Market Slowdown: A notable 17% fall in intra-Asia Pacific traffic largely drove a 3% global tonnage decline, highlighting the region’s quick response to the Lunar New Year compared to long-haul markets. Conversely, tonnages from Asia Pacific to certain regions like Central & South America increased, demonstrating varied market reactions.
• Year-on-Year Tonnage and Capacity Increase: Comparatively, weeks 5 and 6 saw a 10% increase in worldwide tonnages year-on-year, with significant rises from Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia origins. This was accompanied by a substantial 16% increase in global air cargo capacity, indicating an overall growth in the air cargo sector from last year.
  Pricing Trends and Pre-Covid Comparison: Despite a year-on-year drop in average worldwide rates by 14%, the gap is narrowing, and rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (34% increase compared to February 2019), suggesting a sustained recovery and adaptation in the air cargo market post-pandemic.

[Ocean – ISC to North America]

• Rates: Increased due to 2H February General Rate Increases (GRIs), but as of week 8 are starting to mitigate. Overall levels still remain significantly inflated compared to November levels at +250% to United States East Coast (USEC) BP and +90% to United States West Coast (USWC) BP.
• Space: Vessels delayed in getting to destination and back to origin are resulting in a lack of capacity. The short-term disruption is expected to be more challenging, while longer term we expect some normalization due to new builds, faster vessel speeds, and implementation of idle capacity.
• Equipment: Although equipment availability is carrier-specific for each port of loading, the overall situation is challenging. This is especially true at inland container depots and smaller/less connected ports.

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[Ocean - TAWB]

• 从 2 月 1 日起，各种费率指数开始显示每 TEU 跳涨约 500 美元。这在意料之中，因为承运商推出了与红海局势有关的附加费（应急附加费、紧急附加费、PSS 等）。
• 由于欧洲大部分地区（主要是德国南部、波兰和地中海西部地区）的设备变得有限，预计 3 月份的费率将进一步上升。
• 尽管为了帮助应对红海局势，我们看到了空白航次和在其他贸易航线上重新部署的船只，但运力仍相对稳定。
• 巴拿马运河干旱问题对 1 月份过境集装箱船的影响同比微乎其微。

[美国出口］

• 内陆铁路货场和出口装货点的设备（EQ）水平越来越不稳定。请在货物就绪日期 (CRD) 前四周进行预订。如果无法做到这一点，请考虑在沿海港口装载卡车和转运货物，以避免持续的 EQ 问题。
• 如果货物在沿海港口装船，请提前 2-3 周或更多时间预订，以确保装船优化，避免空船，并确保设备及时到位。
• 对于跨大西洋东行航线，可提供从基地港到基地港的运力。

[航空 - 全球]（数据来源：WorldACD/埃森哲）

• 中国运费上涨：中国至北美和欧洲的航空货运费率在农历新年前一周分别飙升了 14% 和 8%，但仍低于 12 月初的峰值。
• 红海海运中断的影响：红海集装箱运输中断可能是导致运价飙升的原因之一，这促使一些从中国运往欧洲的海运货物转为海空联运。
• 运输需求强劲：尽管目前受到干扰和农历新年的季节性影响，但从中国到欧洲和北美的航空货运需求依然强劲。
• 全球需求和费率上升：受农历新年影响，全球航空货运需求和费率持续上升，在强劲的电子商务运输支持下，货运吨位同比大幅增加。
• 全年大幅增长：第 4 周和第 5 周的全球货运量与去年同期相比增长了 25%以上，其中亚太地区、中东和南亚的货运量大幅增长，部分原因是海运转为海空联运。
• 与 2019 年 2 月相比，房价走势超过 32%。

[拉美航空北上航线]

• 巴西纳韦甘特斯港正在进行土建工程，以便在 2024 年 1 月 5 日开始的未来两年内调整码头基础设施。工程将分两个阶段进行。在一侧施工的同时，另一侧将继续正常运营。工程将从东侧开始，当这一阶段完成后，工程将转移到西侧。
• 虽然该港口目前的运营没有受到限制，但在此期间，我们可能会看到通过 Navegantes 的所有服务都将面临运营挑战，等待时间也会增加。一些托运人可能会选择转到附近的港口（伊塔波阿港和巴拉那瓜港）。
• 达飞轮船公司宣布，他们的 BRASEX 服务将转至因比图巴。另一方面，地中海航运致力于为 Navegantes 以外的客户提供服务。地中海航运有两条从巴西出发的主要航线，并将优化这些航线，为 USEC、USGC 和 USWC/ CA 提供服务。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

本周新闻

墨西哥海关系统故障导致跨境货运严重延误
墨西哥国家海关总署 (ANAM) 计算机系统持续出现一系列故障，严重扰乱了美国边境的货物运输，并造成港口和机场的延误。这些故障持续数日，影响了该机构以电子方式处理进出口文件的能力，促使墨西哥国家海关总署以 "应急 "模式运行。

即将签署的印太贸易协定为美国供应链的优先事项增添了新的内容
印度-太平洋繁荣经济框架（IPEF）供应链协议将于2月24日生效，以加强太平洋贸易国之间的供应链弹性。该协议由美国、澳大利亚和日本等伙伴国签署，强调数据共享、港口附近的仓储以及政策最佳实践方面的合作，以建立具有弹性和包容性的供应链。

尽管前景黯淡，1 月份进口仍创下 7 年来最快增速
尽管地缘政治局势紧张，苏伊士运河和巴拿马运河面临挑战，但根据笛卡尔公司的数据，1月份美国进口出人意料地激增，比12月份增长7.9%，同比增长9.9%。中国农历新年前的进口热潮推动了这一增长，西海岸港口受益最大，长滩和洛杉矶的进口量大幅增加。

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[航空 - 全球]（数据来源：World ACD/Accenture）

• 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 28 日，全球国际航空货运能力比 2019 年增长了 10%。
• 在过去四周里，全球国际航空货运能力比前四周下降了 4%。
• 预计今年春节前后中国大陆和香港的航空货运量将下降 30%-40%，与往年持平。
• 尽管 2024 年 1 月的平均收益率仍低于 2023 年 1 月，但由于红海危机和农历新年的预期，跨太平洋和亚欧航线的收益率在 1 月的最后几周有所上升。
• 近几个月来，航空货运量持续上升，主要原因是自去年第四季度以来，亚太地区的电子商务活动强劲，同时，由于最近红海集装箱航运业务受到干扰，一些货物明显从海运转向空运和海空联运。

[美国出口］

• 内陆铁路货场和出口装货点的设备数量减少，或越来越少。建议客户在货物备妥日期（CRD）前 3-4 周进行预订。如果无法做到这一点，可考虑用卡车和转运方式在沿海港口装货，以避免持续的设备问题。

[Ocean - FEWB]

• 亚洲-北欧：红海危机继续影响货运市场的发展。达飞轮船公司因安全风险再次暂停红海转运，直至另行通知。
• 由于返回亚洲的船只延误，农历新年出发前的设备越来越紧张。大多数承运商正在安排集装箱重新定位，以便按计划运输货物。我们强烈建议托运人采取灵活态度，接受集装箱替换，以避免进一步延误，并尽早安排空箱提货。承运商正在提供更长的起运时间，以减轻农历新年的影响。
• 预计二月下半月的需求将保持平稳。承运商正在进一步下调运价，以迎合二月上半月的新货需求，为二月下半月的滚装船做准备。尽管已经宣布了大量的空船计划（WK08/09 平均削减 30%），但海洋联盟又宣布了 7 个空船计划，其中 3 个计划在 2 月启航，其余在 3 月启航。我们预计其他两个联盟也将很快公布更多的空置计划。
• 为减轻运营挑战（船期调整、船舶缩减、设备短缺、滚装等）带来的干扰，托运人可以探索班轮公司以较高成本提供的溢价服务，以获得有保障的舱位和设备，缩短延误时间。
• 亚洲-地中海：继北欧之后，地中海的浮动运价仍然偏高。从第 06 周开始，浮动运价呈小幅下降趋势，原因是要在农历新年前让更多的货物装满船，同时，由于亚洲需求疲软和假期，也要为 2 月下半月以后的滚装做准备。

请与您的客户代表联系，了解货运所受影响的详情。

北美船舶停留时间

 

 

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

[空气 - 全球]（数据来源：WorldACD）

• 一月份的全球航空货运需求与去年同期相比有显著增长。除北美以外，全球所有主要地区的货运需求都出现了增长。
• 由于红海的干扰，一些货主正在将亚欧货物从海运转为空运或海空联运（如空运转海运）。这种转变，再加上 2024 年农历新年（2 月 10 日）较晚的影响和 1 月中旬的典型季节性趋势，促成了航空货运需求的增长。
• 尽管国际集装箱航运受到严重干扰，亚洲至欧洲的海运即期费率上涨了两倍，但全球航空货运费率仍保持相对稳定。然而，由于季节性和与产品相关的需求因素，亚太地区以外的航空货运费率在 2023 年底已经上涨。
• 由于空运预订窗口将在农历新年前关闭，货运代理公司正准备迎接未来几周的挑战，包括港口延误和欧洲货物堆积。这种情况可能会导致对空运货物的依赖增加。
• 2024 年第 2 周和第 3 周与去年同期相比，全球总体需求增长了 6%，其中中东和南亚、非洲以及亚太地区的需求增长显著。全球平均运价比去年低 22%，但仍高于 COVID 前的水平。航空货运能力也同比大幅增长。

[印度次大陆至北美--大洋]

• 进入二月上半月，海运费继续上涨，因为红海的干扰没有缓解的迹象。由于船只在好望角附近改道，造成运力短缺，这些船只被推迟抵达目的地，然后再返回原籍地。这种短期干扰预计将更具挑战性，而我们预计长期来看会趋于正常。
• 集装箱短缺是承运人特有的问题，但最近许多主要湿港和内陆集装箱堆场报告的设备问题有所增加。
• 有几项服务更新需要报告，其中包括地中海航运取消了 INDUSA（印度 → USEC）航线，导致其剩余的 INDUS EXPRESS 航线运力紧张。地中海航运还取消了 12 月底刚刚开通的直达巴基斯坦卡拉奇港的航线。OOCL/COSCO 取消了 AWES/ISE 服务（蒙德拉→波士顿/纽约/佛罗里达），原因是好望角改道导致运营成本增加。取消该航线后，从印度到波士顿不再有直达航线。

[TAWB – Ocean]

• 需求保持稳定，预计 2 月份不会出现高峰。承运商仍在根据红海的最新进展管理运力。我们预计运力将平均下降 15-20%。
• 由于与红海有关的几项附加费用将于 2 月 1 日生效，预计 2 月份的运价将会上涨。预计未来几周的指数也将如此。
• 欧洲（主要是德国和东欧各地）的设备状况正在趋紧。这是红海局势导致转运时间增加的直接后果。
• 准点率从 2023 年 7 月的 72%降至 2023 年 12 月的 50%（根据 Sea Intelligence 数据）。这在冬季是很正常的，因为这主要是由与天气有关的问题造成的。

[FEWB – Ocean]

• 红海危机继续影响货运市场的发展。返回亚洲的船只继续面临延误。此外，承运商已经开始宣布中国南方以外的港口和亚洲的一些出港港口缺乏可用设备。托运人应保持灵活性，接受集装箱替换，以避免进一步延误。随着农历新年的临近，2 月下半月的需求依然平淡。因此，承运商正在调整费率，以迎合 2 月上半月的新货需求，并为 2 月下半月的滚装池填满船只做好准备，尽管有大量空箱计划（第 8 周和第 9 周预计平均下降 30%）。为减轻运营挑战（船期调整、船舶缩编、设备短缺、滚装等）带来的干扰，托运人应探索成本较高的班轮公司提供的优质服务。这种方法有助于保证舱位和设备，缩短延误时间。
• 另一条新闻是，虽然德国铁路罢工已于 1 月 29 日结束，但德国农民目前正在举行抗议活动，他们阻止铁路工人进入主要港口，这对公路运输和进出口造成了影响。
• 继北欧之后，地中海浮动运价尽管从第 6 周起略有下降趋势，但仍保持在较高水平，以便在农历新年前装满船。此外，由于需求疲软和亚洲的假期，现在预计将在 2 月下半月开始进行滚装池准备工作。

北美船舶停留时间

来源于 Flexport.com

值得关注的趋势

• [航空 - 全球]2024 年初，航空货运量出现反弹，超过了往年的趋势。2024 年 1 月的第二周，全球航空货运量出现强劲反弹，与前一周相比增长了 24%，一反年末典型的放缓趋势。与去年同期相比，这一反弹趋势更为明显，从亚太地区、中东和南亚地区运往欧洲的货物明显增加，这可能是受到红海航运中断的影响。尽管与前两周相比，全球货运量总体下降了 7%，但中东和南亚的货运量上升了 2%，而主要洲际航线的货运量则大幅下降。同比数据显示，尽管运价仍比去年同期低 24%，但比 COVID 前的水平高出 31%，全球需求增长了 2%，其中亚太地区以外的需求显著增长了 6%。从亚太地区、中东和南亚地区到欧洲的货运量增加并没有导致平均价格的上涨，这表明全球航空货运市场的需求、运力和价格之间存在着复杂的相互作用。
• [FEWB - Ocean] 亚洲-北欧：红海危机持续影响货运市场的发展。运价仍然偏高。过去几周，需求强劲，随着农历新年的临近，亚洲需求放缓，海运承运商纷纷降低运价。承运商又宣布了两项空船计划，导致 08/09 年 WK 的运力平均削减了 25% 以上。由于船只改道好望角，船只和集装箱面临更长的运输时间。预计未来几周亚洲将出现空箱短缺，尤其是外港。为减轻运营挑战（船期调整、船舶缩编、设备短缺、滚装等）带来的干扰，托运人可以探索班轮公司提供的成本较高的溢价服务，以获得有保障的空间和设备，缩短延误时间。德国铁路罢工：DB InfraGO AG 的德国铁路基础设施再次发生罢工。从欧洲中部时间 2024 年 1 月 23 日下午 6:00 至 2024 年 1 月 29 日，德国基础设施的所有交通都将受到影响。罢工将于欧洲中部时间 2024 年 1 月 29 日下午 6:00 结束。请密切关注事态发展，并做好运输计划（如有）。亚洲-地中海：继北欧之后，地中海浮动汇率仍然偏高。由于亚洲需求疲软和假期，WK04 的运价开始小幅走低，以推动更多货物在农历新年前装满船只，并为 WK07 以后的滚装船做准备。

北美船舶停留时间

 

值得关注的趋势

• [TAWB - Ocean]一月份的市场需求保持相对稳定，预计最早要到三月份才会出现高峰。虽然船舶总满载率仍未达到 100%，但由于冬季空航计划和一些承运商削减运力的直接影响，满载率略有上升。尽管由于空航，预计 1 月和 2 月的平均运力将下降 20%，但总体运力仍然很高。我们预计，未来几周承运商将增加运力，以帮助应对红海局势。我们已经看到海洋联盟和 2M 成员（马士基和地中海航运）在这样做。受红海局势的直接影响，跨大西洋航线的船舶运价已经开始上涨，预计在二月份大多数承运商宣布收取 GRI/PSS 和紧急附加费时，运价还会进一步上涨。其他消息方面，据几家航运公司报告，设备短缺已开始影响奥地利和德国南部的一些地区。全面的影响可能要到稍后阶段才会显现，而且还将取决于当前德国铁路状况的结果。
• [FEWB - Ocean] 亚洲-北欧：1 月下半月的市场需求正在上升，所有船舶都已满载，未来几周承运商的滚装船库将会陆续开张。第 3 周的即期运价因农历新年高峰而略有上涨，第 4 周的即期运价稳定在农历新年前的高位。由于红海危机仍在继续，目前估计一艘船需要 2-4 周（往返），具体取决于目的地。受此直接影响，海洋联盟和 2M 公司宣布 2 月份将有 15 个以上的空船计划，预计 THE Alliance 不久还将宣布更多空船计划。如果情况保持不变，预计未来几周将出现设备短缺。德国罢工：罢工于 1 月 12 日结束，但未达成协议。我们预计将会有新一轮的罢工。预计不会产生直接影响。双子座合作：马士基和赫伯罗特宣布将于 2025 年 1 月开始正式合作。更多关于其他承运商的行动将陆续公布。
• [地中海贸易]继北欧之后，地中海 1 月下半月第 3 周的即期运价正在上涨。第四周的即期运价预计将略有下降，因为承运人正在推动货物在农历新年前装满船只。
• [美国出口]随着红海局势的持续，美国出口商在全球范围内发货时可能会因集装箱错位而造成设备短缺。我们强烈建议提前 4 周以上预订货物，以确保能够获得预期数量 (EQ)。
• [航空 - 全球]继 12 月下半月的典型下滑之后，2024 年第一周全球航空货运吨位继续下降。第一周的初步数据显示，全球航空货运吨位周环比下降了 6%，尤其是从亚太地区到北美、中东和南亚以及亚太地区内部的货运量下降明显。今年第一周货运量的下降与 2023 年同期的稳定形成了鲜明对比，这可能是受今年第一周计算中包含 1 月 1 日假期的影响。在两周比较的基础上，2023 年最后两周和 2024 年第一周的总吨位下降了 28%，平均运价下降了 5%，运力下降了 8%。尽管出现了这些下降，但根据世界货运代理公司（World ACD）的数据，同期全球货运量同比增长了约 3%，目前全球平均运价比去年低 19%，但仍比 COVID 前的水平高出 30%。

北美船舶停留时间

 

来源于 Flexport.com