市场更新

返校订单呈上升趋势，许多零售商的库存已经售罄。这对 23 年的旺季意味着什么？这要看你问的是谁--一些物流经理预计，旺季将与 2018-2019 年持平，而另一些物流经理则表示，预计要到 24 年第三季度才会出现 "正常 "旺季。

货物重回美国西海岸港口，但部分货物已永远离去

货运状况趋于稳定，加上近期港口与工会领导层之间的谈判出现积极迹象，使得一些将货物转移到美国东海岸港口的托运人开始谨慎地将部分货物运回西海岸。根据 Descartes Datamyne 的数据，洛杉矶/长滩港的吞吐量同比仍下降了 5%（2019 年第一季度占美国进口的 45%，而今年第一季度占 40%）。

墨西哥已超过中国，成为美国最大的贸易伙伴，占贸易总额的 16.1%。根据此处引用的 UberFreight 研究报告，近岸化，或将生产等海外业务转移到附近国家的趋势正在加快。包括对 Flexport 最近一篇关于拉雷多崛起为美国第一大货物入境口岸的文章的引用，以及我们的首席经济学家菲尔-利维（Phil Levy）的几段话。

世界最大集装箱船抵达安特卫普布鲁日港

地中海邮轮洛雷托号于4月19日从宁波启航，将于5月28日停靠费利克斯托港。本周，该轮停靠在安特卫普布鲁日港，是停靠该港的最大船舶。洛雷托号 "及其孪生兄弟 "MSC Irina "号的运载能力为 24,346 个标准箱，长 400 米，宽 61 米。

托运人厌倦了过去几年卡车运输业的持续波动，开始进行反击。他们正在变得咄咄逼人，但不是像许多人所期望的那样，选择最低的投标人。相反，他们正在追求诸如 "准时、完整 "的服务水平指标。根据他们自己的Sonar数据，Freightwaves研究了这一点，再加上更恒定、全年的招标季节，如何使卡车运输的趋势对托运人有利。

Flexport连续第三年入选CNBC颠覆者50强名单

在过去的11年里，CNBC将50家初创企业列入其 "颠覆者50 "名单。这些公司被选中是因为他们的雄心和尖端技术，当然，他们被选中也是因为他们正在追逐各自行业中的最大机会。Flexport在2022年名列榜首后，连续第三年自豪地跻身其中，位列第10位。

继长滩和纽瓦克之后，3月份美国第三大最繁忙的港口并不是一个 "港口"，或者至少不是那种海浪拍打着码头的港口。它是一个内陆港，离海有一百多英里，大多数 "货物 "都是在半挂车的后面和蜿蜒的火车上通过，没有被卸下。

它是德克萨斯州的拉雷多，或塔毛利帕斯州的新拉雷多，取决于你坐在边界的哪一边。这也是暗示美国贸易流可能发生转变的主要指标之一。

下图将通过拉雷多的月度装载标准箱与2019年大流行前的月度平均数约16.5万个进行了比较（蓝色直线虚线）。记得在2019年，美国的实际进口量呈下降趋势，在大流行病的发生造成的最初下降后，我们随后开始看到相当大的增长。

Turning back to Laredo, with the exception of a likely-seasonal drop in the May of 2022, volumes have remained well-above that average for the past twelve months, culminating in the March spike, which represented a 14.8% month-on-month increase and 17.5% increase year-on-year. By contrast, total seaborne TEUs into the U.S. were only up 6.6% month-on-month and still 24.9% lower than March 2022.

使得这一高峰--以及之前几个月的数量--更加耐人寻味的是，它出现在美国动荡的海运进口、有弹性的消费者支出以及批发和零售库存水平之间明显脱节的时候。

拉雷多的活动增加可能提供了谜题的一个部分。然而，这可能只是暂时的激增，数量最终会回到历史水平。事实上，如果说过去几年教会了我们什么，那就是看起来的趋势可能是什么都不是。

全球供应链可能已经摆脱了COVID大流行带来的大量干扰，但这并不意味着一切都可以，或应该恢复 "正常"。那些利用这段时间将他们在过去三年中所学到的经验付诸行动的公司，是那些为自己的长期成功做好准备的公司。供应链的弹性、多样化（供应商、合作伙伴、路线等）和可持续性是托运人在2023年下半年应该关注的关键领域。

灰翼公司的新SeaGPT解决了海事船员经理的电子邮件难题

总部位于新加坡的海事智能平台Greywing（得到Y Combinator和Flexport等投资者的支持）宣布推出 seaGPT--一个针对海事船员船长的人工智能聊天机器人。seaGPT在后台运行，利用Greywing的专有数据库和与全球18000多个港口的整合，加快船员的上岗和下岗。

• [Ocean-TAWB] As more vessels and carriers have entered the market, there is plenty of supply with shipping lines looking for extra cargo to fill the additional capacity. This situation is expected to last beyond Q2 2023.
• [Ocean-LATAM] Capacity has opened up due to softer demand and ocean carriers deploying new services or adding additional capacity to existing service rotations. This has put pressure on rates as supply exceeds demand—we expect the situation to remain beyond Q2.
• [Air-Asia > N. America/EU] We expect freighter capacity to drop as older aircrafts are retired or scrapped as they cannot make money under current economic conditions. Overall capacity should be slightly net positive in Q2 but will reduce in Q3 with the end of the summer travel period.
• [Air-LATAM] Brazil: Required lead time is similar month over month—the lead time from requesting the booking to the airline until uplift is 2 to 4 days for Standard service on average, but will vary depending on the airline and route. Shorter lead time available on Express service.
• [Air/Ocean-India] Space is available and schedules are reliable for both modes out of India/Sri Lanka/Bangladesh. Air cargo space is tight into the U.S. and EU for Pakistan with occasional flight delays. Equipment has good availability.
  ​​​​

The latest forecasts released by Flexport Research show a steady increase in consumption, among other signs that recession isn’t as imminent as previously thought. “A recession may well be on the way, but from the latest data, we’re not seeing it arriving in the next few months,” said Phil Levy, Flexport chief economist. At the same time, the U.S. domestic trucking industry showed the largest decline in tonnage hauled since the beginning of the pandemic, as the truck tonnage index fell 5.4% in March over February.

[Podcast] What Are Responsible Supply Chains and What Role Does Trust, Transparency and Technology Play in Achieving Them?

In this latest episode of Zero100’s “Radical Reinvention” podcast, Zero100 Co-Founder Kevin O’Marah is joined by: Dave Clark, CEO of Flexport, Anne-Laure Descours, Chief Sourcing Officer at PUMA, and Reginaldo Ecclissato, Chief Business Operations and Supply Chain Officer at Unilever. The discussion is a deep dive into responsible supply chains and the role that trust, transparency and technology play in achieving them—as Dave says, “I don’t think you can be in the supply chain anymore without waking up and thinking about your impact on people and the planet.”
​​​​​​

According to the World Bank’s recently released report, “Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies,” global GDP growth will slow significantly in the coming years. For the freight forwarding and global shipping industry, the time may be perfect to invest in technology upgrades and improved data practices. Neel Jones Shah, Flexport’s EVP of Air Strategy & Carrier Development, had this to say: “My advice for everyone working in supply chain right now is to take advantage of this time to plan for the future.”

How the Pandemic’s E-Commerce Boom Drove New Packaging Trends

Shifts in consumer shopping habits, environmental concerns, brand reputation, and direct-to-consumer models stemming from the early days of the COVID pandemic have all contributed to changes in how goods are shipped to buyers. Specifically, Ships-In-Own-Container (SIOC), in which  an item arrives in the original packaging without any additional box or packaging needed, has seen a major uptick in recent years.